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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in the year 2008 and experiences with CVS COSMO General Meeting 2008 WG 5 Parallel Session 15 September 2008

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Experiences with CVS Pirmin Kaufmann Meteo. Swiss

Installation hints • Installation does not work without trailing slash in INSTALLATION_PATH • For

Installation hints • Installation does not work without trailing slash in INSTALLATION_PATH • For 64 bit EMOS, insert –Dbit 64 after pgf 90 in all make scripts: make_*_linux. sh • Newer EMOS libraries need JSEC 2=4096 instead of JSEC 2=64 in *vs_bufr_decode. F • Large BUFR files need DO ILOOP =1, 500000 instead of DO ILOOP =1, 50000 in gvs_bufr_decode. F • Example files and documentation are sometimes inconsistent, e. g. • -UTC missing in example file fcs_date. par • UWIND , VWIND instead of WMOD, WDIR and vice versa Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 3

Running CVS • BUFR files for GVS must not contain any reports with another

Running CVS • BUFR files for GVS must not contain any reports with another date, e. g. no 00 UTC reports from following day • BUFR files for HVS must contain 23 UTC sounding from previous day • GRIB files for GVS must not contain any other fields with the same GRIB element number, e. g. no T, U, V on other levels • GRIB files for HVS must contain T, U, V on all required pressure levels Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 4

Fixed Bugs • Height correction for temperature was applied with wrong sign • Grid

Fixed Bugs • Height correction for temperature was applied with wrong sign • Grid points with land fraction < 1. 0 (later 0. 55) are considered water points and excluded from the association of the grid points to stations. Correct value now 0. 5. • Irrelevant for practical application: The conversion of K to deg C was done with the subtraction of 273. 16 (triple point) instead of 273. 15 (freezing point). Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 5

Remaining Bugs • HVS calculates only out to +66 h lead time, all scores

Remaining Bugs • HVS calculates only out to +66 h lead time, all scores for the +72 h lead time are written as 0. 00 • Grid point selection is neither old nor new standard as decided last GM in 2007 Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 6

Desirable Features • GVS extraction of obs data should control date of BUFR message,

Desirable Features • GVS extraction of obs data should control date of BUFR message, same for GRIB extraction • HVS extraction of obs data should look for soundings with 23 UTC reference time in file of previous day • Test consistency of extracted and verified lead times • Currently bogus +54 h to +66 h scores are calculated without warning even when fcs data have only been extracted out to +48 h • Test consistency of land mask and orography with model GRIB files • Remove write(555, *) commands in gvs_grib_decode. F Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 7

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in the year 2008 Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Christophe Hug, Vanessa Stauch Meteo. Swiss COSMO General Meeting 2008 WG 5 Parallel Session 15 September 2008

COSMO: • • Verification packages for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2 Operational: • Surface (3 h-steps

COSMO: • • Verification packages for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2 Operational: • Surface (3 h-steps SYNOP and 1 h-steps SMN [Swiss Met Net]) • psred, ps, T 2 m, Td 2 m, 10 m-wind, cloud cover, precipitation and since Spring 2008 also wind gusts • Upper-air (TEMP) • T, F, RH, wind Ongoing in experimental modus: • Windprofiler Payerne and Schaffhausen • Precipitation with RADAR (fuzzy verification, Ebert’s package) • Fluxes at Payerne New / Next developments: • Global radiation at SYNOP stations • VAD (locations of swiss radars) Phased out: • integrated water vapor content with GPS data • weather-type dependant verification with RADAR and TEMP => All these packages should be integrated in VERSUS 2 Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 9

Surface pressure bias (mean error) Winter 07/08 Spring 08 in winter 07/08 hig positive

Surface pressure bias (mean error) Winter 07/08 Spring 08 in winter 07/08 hig positive bias in Spring 08 high negative bias but observed pressure in Spring 08 is 9. 6 h. Pa lower than Winter 07/08 see results of U. Damrath: low ps (obs) -> negative bias high ps (obs) -> positive bais Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 10

2 m temperature diagnostics - Impact study: COSMO-7 forecast of 08. 05. 08 Zermatt

2 m temperature diagnostics - Impact study: COSMO-7 forecast of 08. 05. 08 Zermatt 1600 m Gd St Bernard 2400 m Evolene Valais 1800 m Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 11

2 m temperature diagnostics impact on mean diurnal cycle Summer 2007 Summer 2008 The

2 m temperature diagnostics impact on mean diurnal cycle Summer 2007 Summer 2008 The (well known) errors of: - too strong temperature increase in the morning - maxima reached ~ 1. 5 -2 h too early is removed with the new 2 m temperature diagnostics (introduced operationally 09. 06. 08) Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 12

2 m temperature over Switzerland bias Summer 2008 (CVS-Software) 300 -800 m > 800

2 m temperature over Switzerland bias Summer 2008 (CVS-Software) 300 -800 m > 800 m Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 13

2 m dewpoint (mean error) Spring 08 Summer 08 Spring 08: bimodal pattern, negative

2 m dewpoint (mean error) Spring 08 Summer 08 Spring 08: bimodal pattern, negative (dry) bias along coasts, positive (wet) bias at inland stations Summer 08: the dry bias discontinues the strongly increased wet bias of the summers 2006 and 2007 Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 14

Other results in 2008: Precipitation, windspeed, cloudiness • • • precipitation: • extreme high

Other results in 2008: Precipitation, windspeed, cloudiness • • • precipitation: • extreme high positive bias at the borders of the model (N and E) since Autumn 2006, disappeared in Spring 2008 • since Winter 07/08 less precipitation, especially the strong amounts are now underestimated (due to new microphysics and Runge-Kutta: introduced opr in November 2007 and in testchain from 14. 7. -31. 08. 07) Summer 2007 2008 change opr testchain opr 07 > 08 mean obs 1. 45 1. 29 1. 28 -12% mean mod 1. 69 1. 04 0. 95 -44% fbi(1 mm/12 h) 1. 16 1. 00 0. 93 fbi(5 mm/12 h) 1. 02 0. 73 0. 66 fbi(10 mm/12 h) 1. 00 0. 64 0. 55 fbi(50 mm/12 h) 2. 16 0. 63 0. 52 Windspeed: negative bias along the coast and on mountains, positive bias inland Cloudiness: partial coverage underestimated Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 15

Precipitation over Switerland Spring 2008 Frequency bias (12 h-sums) of CVS-software Verification results of

Precipitation over Switerland Spring 2008 Frequency bias (12 h-sums) of CVS-software Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 16

Precipitation over Switerland Summer 2008 Frequency bias (12 h-sums) of CVS-software Verification results of

Precipitation over Switerland Summer 2008 Frequency bias (12 h-sums) of CVS-software Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 17

STD (m/s) Comparison COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 10 m windspeed: standard deviation of errors Spring

STD (m/s) Comparison COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 10 m windspeed: standard deviation of errors Spring 2008 over the COSMO-2 domain COSMO-7 COSMO-2 about 400 stations Forecast lenght Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 18

Comparison COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 10 m windspeed Winter 07/08 • • stronger overestimation especially

Comparison COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 10 m windspeed Winter 07/08 • • stronger overestimation especially in narrow valleys over Swiss Middleland lower overestimation (or even low underestimation) Lower understimation over mountain stations COSMO-2 COSMO-7 Standard deviation of errors lower (better) Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 19

Comparison COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 Verification Payerne soundings: windspeed (standard deviation of errors) December 07

Comparison COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 Verification Payerne soundings: windspeed (standard deviation of errors) December 07 / January 08 Druck (h. Pa) 12 h - forecasts COSMO-7 COSMO-2 STD (m/s) Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 20

windgust: old vs new for 16. 01. -17. 03. 08 Verification results of COSMO

windgust: old vs new for 16. 01. -17. 03. 08 Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 21

windgust: old vs new for 16. 01. -17. 03. 08 Verification results of COSMO

windgust: old vs new for 16. 01. -17. 03. 08 Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 22

windgust: old vs new for 16. 01. -17. 03. 08 over Switzerland new old

windgust: old vs new for 16. 01. -17. 03. 08 over Switzerland new old Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 23

Windgust: number of obs Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and

Windgust: number of obs Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 Summer 2008 25

Windprofiler vs. COSMO-2 Wind speed (ff) on 2008 -08 -19 Windprofiler Schaffhausen assimilated Verification

Windprofiler vs. COSMO-2 Wind speed (ff) on 2008 -08 -19 Windprofiler Schaffhausen assimilated Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 26

Verification global radiation: Kloten Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and

Verification global radiation: Kloten Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 28

Global radiation at Kloten 12 UTC COSMO DMO vs error in 2006 Verification results

Global radiation at Kloten 12 UTC COSMO DMO vs error in 2006 Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 29

Verification global radiation: Kloten Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and

Verification global radiation: Kloten Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 30

Example of wrong observations 12 h-sums of precipitation Autumn 2007 occurence of precipitation of

Example of wrong observations 12 h-sums of precipitation Autumn 2007 occurence of precipitation of 0. 1 mm/12 h > 80% (up to 100%) at 5 locations (!) Verification results of COSMO at Meteo. Swiss in 2008 and experiences with CVS WG 5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15. 09. 2008 31