FCCC COP 9 Side Event 6 00 8
- Slides: 10
FCCC COP 9 Side Event 6: 00 -8: 00 pm 1 Dec. 2003, Milan Italy Challenges from rural population transition in developing countries: human development goals and emissions implications Xingshu Zhao (zhaoxingshu@hotmail. com) 9/8/2021 Research Centre for Sustainable Development CASS, China 1
Rural Population Transition Process v v v 9/8/2021 Urbanization：huge population shift from rural to urban areas (energy transition from biomass to commercial energy); Industrialization : employments from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors; Increase in living standard of rural regions：living and production style of rural people are improved. 2
Levels of human development and rural population % of agr. Pop. >40; Low HDI n Large proportion of population in agricultural sector indicates insufficient political, legal and economic institutions for human development High HDI: % of agr. Pop. : <20 9/8/2021 3
Energy and emissions per capita in relation to ratio of labor force in agricultural sector 9/8/2021 4
Urbanization rate vs energy consumption 9/8/2021 China world OECD US 5
Rural population in China • Share of population on the decline, but still large in size and in proportion v 82. 1% in 1978 down to 63. 4% in 2001 v. Absolute numbers: 790. 1 m in 1978 to 880 m in 2001 • share of agriculture in the economy v 50% in 1950 s to 1/3 in early 1980 s to 15. 1% in 2001 v total output in 2000: 1. 5 trillion RMB in 2001 ($190 b) v cropping 53. 8%; livestock 29. 8%; fishery 11. 9; forestry 4. 5% 9/8/2021 6
Large share of non-commercial sources in rural China 1980 -2000 9/8/2021 7
Rural-urban divide 9/8/2021 8
Urbanization in China 2050: population shift 9/8/2021 9
Growth of demands for energy and emissions by sector (billion tce; billion t. C) energy consumption 2. 206 emissions 1. 251 residential energy consumption 0. 668 emissions in residential sector 0. 322 commercial energy instead of biomass 1. 3 Potential mitigation by low-carbon paths (million t. C ): v Taking full use of biomass 150 v Improving energy efficiency 50 v Exploring new energy 0. 2 9/8/2021 10
