FAOOEACIEIICA Working Group on Agricultural and Livestock Statistics

FAO-OEA/CIE-IICA Working Group on Agricultural and Livestock Statistics for Latin America and the Caribbean (25 th Session) Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 10 -12 November 2009 Global Strategy for the Improvement of Agricultural Statistics Division

Overview of the presentation n What is the global strategy? n Why do we need a global strategy? n Key components of the strategy n Governance to meet strategic goals n Worldwide consultation on the Strategy n Capacity building and the way forward

What is the global the Global Strategy? n An initiative of the United Nations Statistical Commission n n (UNSC) = apex entity of the global statistical system; Partnership between International Agencies, developed and developing countries 2 intergovernmental process for its adoption: n UNSC and National Statistical Offices n FAO Governing Bodies and Ministries of Agriculture Long-term plan to respond to the statistical needs of the 21 st century (a living document) Feasible and sustainable for developing countries Basis for a renewed initiative of capacity building in agricultural statistics: mobilization of resources

Decisions of the 40 th UN Statistical Commission n A global strategy is needed to meet the increasing demand for n n information at both the international and country levels; Agricultural and rural statistics are essential for policymaking and Agricultural Ministries have an important role to play in the compilation of agricultural statistics; FAO should lead the development of the global strategy, involving the Ministries of Agriculture through its governing bodies; A Friends of the Chair group (Fo. C) is established to steer the process, with FAO and the United Nations Statistics Division serving as secretariat; Friends of the Chair group to report back on the progress made to the UNSC at its 41 st session.

Actions taken by FAO n Facilitating the creation of the Friends of the Chair group of the UN Statistical Commission n Working with partners to prepare the background document n Organizing a series of meetings in which the new global strategy on Agricultural Statistics will be reviewed

Members of the Fo. C Group of the UNSC n Brazil (chair) n Australia n China n Cuba n Ethiopia n Italy n Morocco n Philippines n Russian Federation n Trinidad and Tobago n Uganda n USA n FAO (secretariat) n UNSD (secretariat) n EUROSTAT (observer) n World Bank (observer)

Preparation of the background document n ESS working closely with other international development partners (World Bank, African Development Bank, EUROSTAT, PARIS 21, UN Statistics Division, US Dept of Agriculture) n ESS coordinating input from all FAO Departments with substantial statistical work n A draft of the Global Strategy was discussed at a Satellite Meeting of the ISI, Maputo, 13 -14 August 2009 Detailed review and validation of the Strategy by more than 100 Senior experts from all regions n A more strategic document explaining the process followed and the steps ahead of us is available for this meeting and will be discussed at the FAO Conference, 18 -23 Nov. 2009

Meetings to discuss the strategy n Seminar with FAO Permanent Representatives, Rome, 22 June 2009 n Satellite Meeting of the ISI, Maputo 13 -14 August 2009 n FAO Regional Consultations (Bangkok, Accra, Rio de Janeiro) n PARIS 21 Consortium Meeting, Dakar, 16 -18 November 2009 n The FAO Conference, Rome, 18 -23 November 2009 n UN Statistical Commission, February 2010, for final endorsement n Implementation plan of the Global Strategy will be prepared in 2010

Why do we need a global strategy? n Basic data requirements are not met, especially in devel. countries n countries’ capacity in agricultural statistics declined since early ’ 80 s n declining resources allocated to agricultural statistics by countries and development partners (low priority) n Emerging data needs (impact of agr. on environment; investment in agr. ; biofuels; water and land use, etc. ) n Need of a new conceptual framework n Agricultural statistics not integrated in the National Statistical System n Lack of coordination between NSO & Min. of Agriculture n National Statistical Plan do not cover agricultural stat. Lack of sound basis for agricultural development and food security policy formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation

Response rates low & declining

Current status of agricultural statistics n Declining number of countries reporting basic production n Loss of statistical capacity n Agriculture left out of National Strategies for Development of Statistics n Duplicative efforts-conflicting numbers n Forestry, fisheries outside national and agricultural systems

Statistics current status The Dilemma – who does what? n National Statistics Offices n Ministry – Departments of n n Agriculture Land Management/Natural Resources Agencies Marketing Boards/ Commissions Health, education agencies Development efforts by donors, WB Each Collects data for own use with results that do not always agree – and limited ability to share data

Assessment of Agricultural Statistics n The assessment remains to be completed n Need for a standard assessment framework similar to the one used for the national statistical system n The scope of capacity building initiatives will depend on the assessment of the statistical system to meet the requirements of the global strategy

Key components of the Global Strategy Data requirements and Conceptual Framework Menu of indicators Minimum set of “core-national” Data items Integrated Data Base Integrate Agriculture into National statistics System Integrated Survey Framework Methodology to Integrate Agriculture Master Sample Frame Governance and Statistical Capacity Building

Conceptual Framework Natural Environment, Outcomes and Results (National income, (climate, soil, water) Institutional Framework (Markets, government Global economy) Food security) The production process (growing crops, raising livestock, Fish capture, timber removals) Output and Utilization Food, feed, seed, Fiber, Etc. Inputs to Production (labor, capital, land, Feed, seed, Etc. ) Socio-economic, Political (Households, holdings’ enterprises

Conceptual Framework n Based on good understanding of the user requirements n Provides a ‘roadmap’ for the development of Agr. statistics. Not methodological guidance nor stipulate what should be produced by countries n Facilitates the integration, and therefore the comparability, of statistics n Components: Scope, Data elements, Organization, Coverage, Units and Classifications

Conceptual Framework: Components n Scope: should cover not only economic but also social and environmental dimensions; n Data Items: linking items from different dimensions n Organization: SNA for the economic statistics; SEEA for environmental statistics; Social statistics? SAM? Wye Handbook? n Coverage: all activities within the scope of agricultural statistics without any cut-offs on the basis of size, importance, location etc. n Units: economic statistics = farm business; social statistics = household; environmental statistics = land parcel. n Classifications: ISIC = agricultural activities; CPC = agricultural commodities; ISCO = agricultural occupations; Classifications of land + forest cover and land use

Menu of Data Items n Meets basic and emerging requirements: Metadata to estimate each indicator, sources, n Technical notes/ classifications, etc n More than any one country can do annually n Shows where data are overlapping (crop production/ land/water use/ input use, etc. ) n Determine a minimum subset of core all countries agree to provide annually n Evaluate national needs to select additional items, determine frequency n

Choice of Core Data Items for International Reporting n About 15 major commodities account for over 95 percent of world production n Production, prices, trade, --balances n Value added, food security, productivity n Land, water use n Plus Forestry, aquaculture & fishery n Major economic variables n Labor, household income, agricultural income inputs, demographics, consumption

Additional Items for National Statistical System n Factors to determine inclusion of additional crops and livestock items. Ranking of items by: Percent of land/water use n Percent value of production n Percent of HH/enterprises producing n Distributions by size n Scale—affect on environment, climate n Permanent or temporary n

Developing Master Sampling Frame Census of Population And Housing Area Frame/ classified By land use via Remote sensing Geo reference Rural HH Primary Sampling Units Villages/clusters Farm HH Ag Census Non Household Enterprises Census Enumeration areas Master Sampling Frame Sample Grids points

Integrated Data collection & Survey Framework Annual Survey(s) core & National Householdings & enterprises Semi. Annual Quarterly Periodic surveys, (2 -5 year cycles) Monthly Supply and utilization, income, & Environmental accounts, Food Balances, etc. Administrative Data Remote Sensing Agri businesses Windshield Surveys Integrated Data Bases Community Surveys

Integrated data bases n Data Warehouse of Official Macro Statistics n Harmonized definitions and classifications n Each item appear one time; i. e. one official number for everything from population, GDP, to maize forecast or production. n Micro data—long term view n Connect across surveys & over time n Increase analytical capabilities

The governance challenge n How coordinate efforts of Ministries of Agriculture, National Statistical Offices, and others? n Who does what—Master sample frame, Integrated Survey Frame work, Integrated data base? n Starting point—form a Statistical Council n Build off strengths of each stakeholder n Technical expertise n Subject matter knowledge

The governance challenge n Role of national organizations Add agriculture (forestry and fisheries) to National Strategies for Development of Statistics n Focus fund raising on national statistical system n Role of international organizations n Focus capacity building and support for statistics on overall national statistical system n Centers of excellence-statistics (e. g. remote sensing) n Role of Donors n Work with Statistical Council instead of separate sectors n

Capacity Building Challenge n Building the basic statistical infrastructure (frames; master samples; etc. ) n Education and training on statistical methodology, technology (GPS), remote sensing n Data analysis—how to use the data to answer policy questions? n Build a sustainable system

Areas needing further research n Crop yield forecasts and estimates Multi-cropping n Root crops n Use of remote sensing with ground truth Sampling and survey methodology for integrated survey framework Use of remote sensing to monitor land use-early warning capabilities Geo referencing survey data with satellite digitized frame Multi-purpose statistical framework about the interrelationships between the economy, environment and society for agriculture and rural development n n n

Worldwide Consultation on the Strategy n National input—Min of AG, National Statistical Offices & other stakeholders n Review and update National Strategies for Development of Statistics n International input from stakeholders n ISI Satellite meeting on agricultural statistics n Global written consultation n 4 Task Teams of the FOC to revise key parts of the document: conceptual framework; menu of indicators; integrated survey framework; assessment framework n Develop final strategy for 2010 UNSC n Develop Implementation Plan

Thank you for your attention!