Facing Overpopulation Doubling Time Thomas Malthus 1798 British

Facing Overpopulation

Doubling Time

Thomas Malthus • 1798, British economist – An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society • Population will outrun food supply – Population increase exponentially (geometric rate) but food increases linearly (arithmetic rate) – 2 ways to stop: contraceptives/abstinence or “negative checks” (war, famine, pandemics, etc. )

Neo-Malthusians • Current supporters (esp. after NIR increase during late 1900 s) – The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich 1968 – Huge foundation for global family planning initiatives – Even more afraid since all countries have now gone through/are in Stage 2 (rapid growth) • LDCs have lower DR now b/c of new medicine from MDCs, not because of increased wealth/resources – Pop. is still outpacing econ. develop. • Kaplan & Homer-Dixon: Energy resources are now added to the dilemma

Critics to Malthus • Pressure on resources lowered with colonization, migration, etc. • Food can grow exponentially thru technology – Possibilism • Boserup & Kuznets: more ppl actually increases production/ econ growth/ ideas • Marxists (Engels): prob lies with unequal distribution of food/$, not actual amount

Combining Both Beliefs • World may not run out of food, but areas with rapid growth do face shortages • Malthus was semi-right about food production rates, but not population – Predicted 10 bil by 2000 only 6 bil – Ppl have chosen to have fewer kids (stages 3 -5) • Prob is with distribution of food, not production • BUT, doesn’t change that pop. base is still huge produce lots of ppl

How can we reduce population growth? (lower CBR)

Anti-Natalist Policies • Restrictive Population Policies: govn’t designed policies to reduce NIR – China: “one-child policy”, 1979 • • Incentives and penalties enacted, services provided Relaxed in rural areas 1976: BR= 25; 1986: BR= 18; 2010: BR= 12 Led to female infanticide (selective killing of baby girls) – India: • No federal program, but federal funding for clinics • Tried sterilization plan protests • Relies just on education will surpass China before 2050

Pro-Natalism • Encourage larger families, parenthood – Often found within some denominations (Mormon, Roman Catholic, Amish, fundamental Islam) – Restrict contraceptive, planning methods – Natalist Politics • Tax cuts, baby bonuses (Russia) • Long, paid maternity/paternity leave (Sweden) • Encourage many kids to replace those lost in war (Iran)

Epidemiologic Transition • Epidemiology: medical sciences involving scale & geographic connections to explain incidence, distribution, and control of diseases – Dr. John Snow & Cholera outbreak in Soho • Epidemiologic Transition: causes of death in ea. stage of the DTM

Maps + Epidemiology • Cholera- diarrhea & dehydration – Pandemics began in 1816 – Death was convulsive, take days/weeks – No known cause • 1854 - Soho, London- Dr. John Snow – Medical Geographer – Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch • Read about Broad Street Pump Cholera Outbreak • His results still apply- Lima 1991 (epidemic); Haiti 2010

Epidemiologic Transition • Stage 1 : – Orman, 1971 - “pestilence and famine” – Malthus- natural checks Ex: Black (bubonic) Plague • Stage 2: – “receding pandemics” – Often with poor sanitation, health care Ex: Cholera during early IR

Epidemiologic Transition • Stage 3: – “degenerative & human created diseases” • Infections, chronic disorders • Measles, AIDS, polio, etc. now lowered with vaccines Ex: Cancer & cardiovascular • Stage 4: – “delayed degenerative diseases” Ex: former are heightened, ** Many Stage 4 & 5 countries have higher DRs b/c…? **

Epidemiologic Transition • Stage 5 of ET: – “reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases” • In developing nations (poor areas lack sanitation, less medical treatment) – Evolution of microbes, resistance to drugs – Increase migration (SARS, H 1 N 1)

Take a Stand 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. In a real crunch, jobs are more important than environmental quality. Arable land should not be used for housing, shopping centers, or otherwise developed. As one of the richest countries in the world, the US should welcome all those from other nations who wish to live here. To lower our use of energy and levels of air pollution, we should spend more money on improving our public transportation systems than our highways. To reduce teen pregnancy in the US, school health service should offer contraceptives to all students who want them. The next century is likely to be a better time to live than the present.