Example guidelines to allocate Contingency to each estimated

Example guidelines to allocate Contingency to each estimated measure to account for uncertainty Basis for Current Best Estimate Value TPM Margin and Contingency Definitions Threshold Margin Maturity of item/process being measured Estimating Technique (alternate) Uncertainty to be included in the WCE Paper Design Analysis, legacy similarity Guess 15% Roll-up of Component-level items Extrapolated tests, Bottom-up models Analysis 10% Integrated model / prototype Integration lab demo Modeling 7% Test article Representative test Demo 4% End-to-end test in real environment (e. g. , OT&E) Test 0% WCE More Contingency** Threshold WCE Current Best Estimate (i. e. raw measure) * * Current Best Estimate value is the raw estimate of the metric determined either by prediction, analysis, direct measurement, and/or bottoms-up estimation without consideration for error. ** Contingency accounts for the uncertainty in estimation and immaturity of the item being measured. Contingency Final article For a data collection point determine the worst case (largest contingency) associated with the applicable item maturity or estimating technique. Apply that contingency percentage to the current best estimate to arrive at the WCE for that collection interval. An example is highlighted: A representative test is done with a roll-up of components. This results in a worst case Contingency of 10%, resulting in: WCE = CBE +10%