Evidencebased decision support tools an example for agriculture

Evidence-based decision support tools: an example for agriculture Lynn Dicks Nekudat Hen Conference, Tel Aviv University 27 October 2015

Decisions that affect the environment are made in many different ways. . . www. linyangchen. com

What is a decision support tool? • A tool to assist decision-makers with a particular decision, often by illustrating different possible outcomes, or leading users through logical decision steps.

Why focus on decision support tools? Tools to assist with particular decisions, by illustrating outcomes or guiding through logical steps. Decision Support Systems Understandable, concise descriptions of best available evidence for an area of practice, with recommendations Summaries Systematic Reviews Review, critical appraisal and analysis of evidence relating to a specific question. Peer-reviewed search and appraisal protocol. Studies Single scientific investigations, testing the effect of an intervention or variable. Source: Dicks et al. (2014) Trends in Ecology and Evolution 29, 607 -613

How can a decision support system incorporate summaries of evidence?

The Cool Farm Alliance Founding partners: Members:

The Cool Farm Tool An easy to use and standardised tool for calculating on-farm greenhouse gas emissions associated with a range of crop or livestock products, applicable globally ü Scientifically robust ü Farmer-friendly ü Industry-backed www. coolfarmtool. org New calculators under development: Water Biodiversity Economics

Measuring on-farm biodiversity Outcome-based DIFFICULT, BUT SURE OF OUTCOMES • Count animals and plants • Measure proxies: habitat diversity, length of hedgerow/woodland edge Action-based • Area under agri-environment management EASY, BUT UNSURE OF OUTCOMES • Specific interventions (buffer strips) • Approaches to farm management: tillage, agrochemical use

EA OF SY, OU BU TC T U OM NS ES UR E The Gaia Biodiversity Yardstick

Cambridge evidence assessment Example measure Median effectiveness score Median certainty score Category Plant nectar flower mix >60 Beneficial Manage hedges to benefit wildlife >60 40 -60 Likely to be beneficial 40 -60 40+ Take field corners out of management <40 Unknown effectiveness Freeze amphibian eggs for future use <40 40 -60 Unlikely to be beneficial Reduce grazing intensity <40 >60 Likely to be ineffective or harmful www. conservationevidence. com

Expert assessment process • Experts from research, NGOs and industry + • Read summarised evidence • Score and comment on: i) Effectiveness of intervention ii) Certainty of evidence • Two rounds of scoring (Delphi Cool Farm Nature process) Action-based • Place interventions in categories (EASY), with evidence of • Final round of scoring if disagreement outcomes

Assigning evidence categories Without negative side effects (< 20% ) 100 Certainty 80 100 Likely to be ineffective or have adverse side effects Beneficial 60 Likely to be beneficial Unlikely to be beneficial 40 20 With negative side effects (> 20%) Unknown effectiveness 20 40 60 Effectiveness 80 80 60 Likely to be ineffective or have adverse side effects Trade-offs between benefits and harms 40 20 100 Unknown effectiveness 20 40 60 Effectiveness 80 100

Weighting the scores with evidence…. Example measure Median effectiveness score Median certainty score Category Score added Plant nectar flower mix >60 Beneficial 2 Manage hedges to benefit wildlife >60 40 -60 Likely to be beneficial 1 40 -60 40+ <40 Unknown effectiveness 0 Take field corners out of management <40 40 -60 Unlikely to be beneficial 0 Reduce grazing intensity <40 >60 Likely to be ineffective or harmful Excluded © Wikimedia commons Uncultivated margins (effect on arable flora)

Cool Farm Nature prototype (NW Europe only) Four components: • • http: //cftnature. bestfootforward. com/ Crop/livestock diversity Production practices Small natural habitats Large natural areas and landscapes 31 questions

Cool Farm Nature prototype (NW Europe only) • How can I improve my score for biodiversity? • How does my score compare with similar farms in the same region?

The future • Testing the N European prototype: ADAS, Unilever, Kellogg’s, CLM • New evidence summary and assessment for Mediterranean farmland (2015 -2017) • Large datasets on biodiversity management and land use across supply chains • Understanding trade-offs among sustainability measures • Improved conditions for wildlife on much of the world’s farmland 2015 2025

Find out more: www. coolfarmtool. org www. conservationevidence. com Dave Goulson www. clm. nl Dr Lynn Dicks: lvd 22@cam. ac. uk 01223 761362 @Lynn. Dicks Thanks to: Jaime Garcia Moreno Roger Mitchell Paul Furnborough Silviu Petrovan Adrianna Hawczak Klaus Birkhofer Stefen Schrader Bert Reubens Visa Nuttinen Celine Pelosi Jo Smith Simon Potts Lukas Pfiffner Thomas Doring Aoife O'Rourke Frank Gottwald Adam van Bergen Hilde Wustenberghs Dave Showler Cath Tayleur Davy Mc. Cracken Julie Ewald Duncan Westbury Helen Sheridan Cath Shellswell Cathy Hawes Nigel Critchley Bill Sutherland Rebecca Smith