European Jobs Monitor Shifts in the employment structure

European Jobs Monitor Shifts in the employment structure in Europe during the Great Recession

The ‘jobs’ approach: overview • Method first used by J. Stiglitz, and refined by E. O. Wright - USA • Concept/objectives: – To describe structural change in the labour market using the job as a unit of observation. A job is an occupation in a sector – To add a qualitative dimension to net employment change data (ELFS) using wage (as a proxy of job quality) – To provide data on the extent to which member states are making good on the policy commitment to create ‘more and better jobs’ (Lisbon, EU 2020, EES) • First cross-national application in Europe (to 23 MSs for 1995 -2006) in More and better jobs? : Patterns of employment expansion in Europe, 1995 -2006 (www. eurofound. europa. eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef 0850. htm ) • Subsequent work by Goos/Manning uses a variant of the method – “The polarisation of employment in Europe” (2010)

For each country, a job ranking. . . … leading to a quintile assignment Rank Sector Occupation 1 Financial services Corporate managers 2 Legal /accounting Other professionals 3 Education Teaching professionals 4 Human health activities Life science and health profs 5 . . . . 6 …… 1105 Agriculture Skilled agric / fishery workers 1106 Services to buildings Sales/services elementary occups 1107 Education Sales/services elementary occups 1108 Food manufacture Craft workers Quintiles Low 20% paid Mid-low paid Mid-high paid High 20% paid

The Great Recession: 5 m jobs lost in the EU

Recent employment expansions in EU and US (different periods)

Before and after. . .

MSs + EU-27, employment change by quintile, 2008 q 2 -10 q 2

Variety of national patterns (2008 -10) Polarisation Upgrading Downgrading

Sector: loss concentrated in manufacturing / construction

Services: where the growth is * (L)KIS=(Less) Knowledge Intensive services

Gender: heavy male job losses, heavily polarised

Very different impacts by age group

Foreign-born workers: Growth in low-paid employment

Temporary work: The fall and rise

Conclusions and policy pointers • Labour market impacts of recession varied very much between member states • Resilience of growth in top-quintile jobs • Disappearing middle – Polarisation – distributional inequality, ‘Blocs’ of good and bad jobs, – What do those who lose their jobs in medium-paying jobs do? – Occupational mobility • Youth unemployment – ‘New skills for new jobs’? • Destandardisation – Increasing part-time, temporary/fixed-term work (absent ES) • Next 5 years? – The public sector

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• Extra slides

EU-27 employment shifts by occupation/sector, 2008 q 2 -2010 q 2

Services, esp public sector: where the growth was

Irish labour mkt during the crisis

Temporary work: The fall and rise

Part-time work: Increasing across the board

In summary From upgrading with some polarisation (1998 -2007) to polarisation with some upgrading (2008 -2010) more “hollowing out” than growth in the tails

Education

Comparing job-wage and job-skill rankings (% per annum employment change by quintile, EU 27)

Manufacturing: a German exception

AGE

Job-wage rankings • Source: ELFS 2008 annual data • Mean net wage per hour per employee in job • Data not available for all countries, yet. Our solution: – To enquire with MSs for missing countries positive response from Denmark – Generate a common EU ranking (based on 13 MS inc UK, IT, FR and PL) and apply to countries where we have no data. Second-best but practical. High level of correlation of job-wage ranks between countries. • Eurostat wage data - coverage and quality - will improve.

Irish labour mkt during the crisis

European Jobs Monitor 2011 • Breaks in data 2007 – transition to NACE (sector) rev 2. 0 • 3 yrs of ELFS data with the new sector classification. • Wage data in the ELFS available for 14 countries (ELFS annual 2008). • First application of ‘jobs approach’ using NACE rev 2 sector data with up-to-date data. • We start today with analysis of change in structure of jobs between 2008 Q 2 & 2010 Q 2. But first how to rank jobs & present results in quintiles

Gender, age and emp status • Gender: “a very male recession” – not only quantitatively • Age: - old gained in all quintiles esp. at the top - young lose in all quintiles esp. towards the bottom • Part-time - net gains equally shared between sexes - male in lower quintiles, women in higher • Temporary work - Steep losses 08 -09, rapid growth 09 -10 - shift to lower quintiles