Europe 100 renewable in 2050 A logical explanation

Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic vision 6 th UPC International Seminar on Sustainable Technology Development Vilanova i la Geltrú, 20 June 2013 Kristian Petrick All Green Energies, Sitges (Barcelona) kristian. petrick@allgreenenergies. org www. allgreenenergies. org All Green Energies

Kristian Petrick Recent clients All Green Energies 2

Introduction With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects „I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth. " John F. Kennedy – May 25, 1961 All Green Energies 3

Agenda What is required to be convinced of a vision? – An open mind to follow logical arguments Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? a) Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b) Examples 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a) Cost curves a) Urgency b) Business vs. public economics b) Stakeholder Analysis c) Recommendations c) Energy Outlook All Green Energies 4

1. a Concept of Energy Autonomy Animated slide Think in “energy self-sufficient units” – and demand, efficiency and renewables go hand-in-hand Devices: Solar powered phones, laptops, . . . Europe Regions / Countries Appliances: Washing machines, motors, . . . Photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps, . . Homes and buildings Apartment buildings, vehicles, . . . Small hydro, biomass plants, solar parks, . . . Villages and municipalities All Green Energies Cities, Industries Wind parks, solar plants, geothermal, wave power, … 5

1. b Examples: Devices Integrate the power supply in a practical and innovative way – making devices independent from the grid Existing… Feasible… Solar-mobile phones Solar-calculators Solar-Notebooks Designed by Albert Bellot All Green Energies 6

1. b Examples: Appliances and buildings Accept higher efficiency standards, generate your own energy – and show your pride with convincing words Today … Future … +++ New appliances only with highest standards allowed Gas / Oil „Power Plus House“ Avoid misleading / unattractive terms like „Passive House“ or „Zero Energy House“ South All Green Energies South 7

1. b Examples: Vehicles Make efficient products attractive – not necessarily cheap! – with target-group specific marketing Until now … From now on … 3 -liter Lupo 3 -liter Porsche E-Car Think BMW E-Minii 3 electric All Green Energies 8

1. b Examples: Industry Consider renewable energy for your company – you find it already for competitive prices in Europe Today … Maybe soon … Aluminium plant with hydro power, Norway Aluminium plant with biomass power, Netherlands All Green Energies Aluminium plant with solar power, Spain Aluminium plant with wind and ocean power, UK 9

1. b Examples: Municipalities and regions Imagine yourself, your neighbours and your region using energy from nearby Europe today … Europe in 2050 … Renewable generation Self-sufficient municipality Fossil/nuclear power plant Coal Uranium Oil Gas All Green Energies 10

1. b Examples: Municipalities and regions 100% RE projects have started world-wide All Green Energies 11

1. b Examples: Municipalities and regions Example: Strategic Plan for the Energy Autonomy of Sitges (2011) 60% of energy consumption can be covered with local resources www. sitgesolar. es All Green Energies 12

1. c Energy Outlook Invest consistently in renewables and use energy intelligently – and the vision will come true automatically Energy Use • Energy Conservation / Savings • Energy Efficiency • Intelligent („passive“) use of energy 100% „Active“ use of energy Fossil and nuclear energies Renewable energies Today Small or easy applications/installations All Green Energies 2050 Complex industries/cities 13

1. c Energy Outlook Global scope: WWF-Ecofys (2011) The Energy Report – 100% Renewable by 2050 http: //wwf. panda. org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/energy_solutions/renew able_energy/sustainable_energy_report/ All Green Energies 14

1. c Energy Outlook There a multitude of (close to) 100% RE studies Scope Organization World Greenpeace DLR Link http: //www. energyblueprint. info/ http: //www. dlr. de/desktopdefault. aspx/tabid-5105/8598_read-21688/ World Future Council http: //www. worldfuturecouncil. org/fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/100__renewable_energy_for_citys-for_web. pdf World Standford University; Scientific American: Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi Peter Droege World WWF / Ecofys World Europe Ecofys European Climate Foundation (Mc. Kinsey, ECN, et al. ) Pricewaterhouse. Coopers LLP, the European Climate Forum, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International http: //www. pwc. co. uk/pdf/100_percent_renewable_electricity. pdf Institute for Applied System Analysis http: //www. rethinking 2050. eu/ EREC Europe Eurosolar http: //www. eurosolar. de/en/ (Hermann Scheer) Spain http: //www. greenpeace. org/espana/news/greenpeace-presentara-ma-ana-e Spain Cataluña UK Greenpeace Centro Complutense de Estudios e Información Medioambiental (Cceim) and the Fundación Conama Fundación Renovables Ecoterra Eurosolar Zero Carbon Britain Germany SRU (Sachverstaendigenrat fuer Umweltfragen) Germany Forschungsverbund Erneuerbare Energien (Fraunhofer et al. ) Germany DLR / SRU Germany Umweltbundesamt http: //www. umweltrat. de/; http: //www. umweltrat. de/Shared. Docs/Downloads/DE/03_Materialien/2010_09_MAT 42_DZLR_Integration_Energiequell en_2050. pdf? __blob=publication. File http: //www. uba. de/uba-info-medien/3997. html Germany Infoportal to RE http: //www. unendlich-viel-energie. de/; http: //www. 100 -prozent-erneuerbare. de/index. php? page=home Germany France 100% Regions Juwi Negawatt Denmark Klimakommissionen http: //www. 100 -ee. de/ http: //www. 100 -prozent-erneuerbar. de/ www. negawatt. org http: //www. klimakommissionen. dk/en. US/Aboutthe. Commission/The. Danish. Climate. Commissionreport/Sider/Forside. aspx Denmark Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group at Aalborg University www. energy. PLAN. eu World Europe Spain Japan Canada Australia All Green Energies Institute for Sustainable Solutions and Innovations (Umweltbundesamt) Can. REA Beyond Zero Emissions http: //www. scientificamerican. com/article. cfm? id=a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030 http: //www. 100 -percent. org/index. html http: //wwf. panda. org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/energy_solutions/renewable_energy/sustainable_en ergy_report/ http: //www. sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S 2211467 X 12000314 http: //www. europeanclimate. org/ ; http: //www. roadmap 2050. eu/ Informe Cambio Global España 2020/50. Energía, economía y sociedad http: //www. fundacionrenovables. org/ http: //www. ecoterra. org/articulos 80 es. html http: //www. energiasostenible. org/sec 3. asp? id_link=27&id_up=23 http: //www. zerocarbonbritain. com/ http: //www. umweltrat. de/Shared. Docs/Downloads/DE/04_Stellungnahmen/2010_05_Stellung_15_erneuerbare. Stromver sorgung. html http: //www. fvee. de/; http: //www. fvee. de/fileadmin/politik/10. 06. vision_fuer_nachhaltiges_energiekonzept. pdf http: //www. fv-sonnenenergie. de/fileadmin/publikationen/Themenhefte/sf 2004_04_07. pdf (Harry Lehmann) http: //www. canrea. ca/site/100 -renewable-energy/ http: //beyondzeroemissions. org/ 15

Agenda So it may be realistic, but what is with the costs? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? a) Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b) Examples 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a) Cost curves a) Urgency b) Business vs. public economics b) Stakeholder Analysis c) Recommendations c) Energy Outlook All Green Energies 16

2. a Cost curves Accept that the times of cheap energy are over – and realize that only renewables can become cheaper Energy costs Affordable for. . . Renewable energies • Economies of scale • Technical improvements Fossil/nuclear energies • Depletion • Internalization of emissions • Security of supply developed countries Countries in transition developing countries Today (depending on technology and location) All Green Energies Time 17

2. b Business- vs. socio-economic costs Challenge the ones who say we cannot afford 100% renewables – let them define which costs they mean Socio economics Fossil economy Renewable economy State taxes subsidies / support schemes State € € taxes subsidies / support schemes Damages Business economics € € € k. Wh € € Equipment & financing Fossil Fuels & security of supply 18

2. c Relevant energy costs Keep in mind that the affordability argument only matters for living a „good“ life, not a „luxurious“ one „Good life“ Use of income. . . for basic needs & pleasure Food, health, clothing Housing / living Work, education, social life, vacation, information, related mobility . . . for additional convenience and leisure Savings / Provisions Luxury products and energy intensive leisure activities Energy required. . . All Green Energies . . must be affordable . . . can be expensive Relevant energy costs Sustainability discussion (not focus of this presentation) 19

Agenda If it is realistic and affordable, what do we have to do? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? a) Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b) Examples 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a) Cost curves a) Urgency b) Business vs. public economics b) Stakeholder Analysis c) Recommendations c) Energy Outlook All Green Energies 20

3. a Urgency Be aware that we have to get on the right track now – and not waste time and money anymore Use of energy Savings, eficiency and intelligent use Fossil & nuclear Renewables 2013 < 80 months 2020 2050 Time left according to IPCC to curb emissions world-wide We need a convincing vision to • implement renewables faster • avoid investments in old technologies • avoid unnecessary emissions • get innovative ideas of more people • create optimism All Green Energies 21

3. b Stakeholder Analysis Convince decision makers – and the population will increasingly benefit from renewable technologies Interests Stakeholders Fossil / nuclear Neutral Renewables Deciders / Multipliers: • Politicians • Managers / Entrepreneurs • Private „Budget Holders“ Target Group „Normal“ Population: • Private citizens • Employees / Workforce • Administration European Population All Green Energies 22

Serious humor Realize that the fossil age is over, the renewable age has begun – even if some may not like it “Save the hand axe industry!” “The metal wo rkers destroy our workplaces” d Axe: “Union Stone an sidies” Maintain the sub Greser & Lenz, Kunstmann Verlag All Green Energies “Save u s” 23

3. c Recommendations Act consistently in private, business and public matters – and just start today Private Budget Holders Managers & Entrepreneurs Politicians & „normal“ citizens & employees / workforce & administration staff 1. Invest smart (= considering energy) 1. Implement consistent policies quickly 2. Improve & support renewable technologies 2. Provide infrastructure and support 3. Have guts to change 3. Switch / turn off what you unsustainable business don‘t use models or jobs 3. Prohibit inefficient / polluting technologies and activities 1. Inform yourself & your family about energy and climate change 2. Buy smart (= considering energy) All Green Energies 24

A European Vision Get inspired by a fascinating vision – for yourself, our children, nature and mankind „We believe that this continent should commit itself to achieving the goal, before half of the century is out, of using solely renewable energies and living in a sustainable way on Earth. " The European Parliament, the European Commission, the Head of States of the European Union, the Party Leaders of the Member States – June 2014 All Green Energies 25

Conclusion “Europe 100% renewable in 2050” is a realistic vision – just spread the word! Thank you for your attention! Contact: Kristian Petrick All Green Energies +34 637 710 451 kristian. petrick@allgreenenergies. org www. allgreenenergies. org All Green Energies 26