EuroMediterranean integration beyond the crisis Fabrizio Onida Universit
Euro-Mediterranean integration beyond the crisis Fabrizio Onida Università Bocconi, Milano EIPA and SSPA, Rome, October 28, 2009 6/14/2021 1
A V-shaped recovery (so far…) 6/14/2021 2
Rebounding trade (WEO October 2009) 6/14/2021 3
Export orders decline stabilized in Europe 6/14/2021 4
China and other BRICs 6/14/2021 5
Consumer confidence still weak 6/14/2021 6
Business confidence recovering 6/14/2021 7
0 il and commodity prices up again: impact of recovery or volatile speculation? 6/14/2021 8
Trade-output elasticity: will it go back to about 2 after crisis? 6/14/2021 9
Risks of W-shaped recovery • 1. Unemployment on rise • 2. Premature exhuberance in financial markets • 3. Delayed policy responses to regulations of derivatives • 4. (Medium term) uncertainty on debt/GDPO ratios “A dull, heavy calm” (Economist, October 3, 2009) 6/14/2021 10
Growth, inflation, current account balance (IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009 6/14/2021 11
World import shares (a), geographical weights on Italy’s export (b), Italy’s world export shares a) b) c) d) e) Quota di ciascun mercato sulle importazioni mondiali Peso mercato su export Italia Export Italia/export Mondo su ogni mercato Quota c) rapportata a quota media Export Italia/Export Mondo (3. 6%) Saldo (export – import) in milioni di euro Fonte: ICE, Rapporto 2007 -08 12
World trade shares: Africa and Middle East low but rising 6/14/2021 13
Value and Shares of World Exports 1948 – 2005 billion dollars and percentage 6/14/2021 14
Value and Shares of World Imports 1948 – 2005 billion dollars and percentage 6/14/2021 15
World merchandise exporters (excluding intra. EU 27 trade), 2007 16
World merchandise importers (excluding intra. EU 27 trade), 2007 17
Leading exporters-importers 6/14/2021 18
North Africa’s import origins 6/14/2021 19
Middle East: intra-regional and EU integration 6/14/2021 20
“Natural resource curse”: Africa and Middle East slower decline than other Developing economies 6/14/2021 21
More and less favourable macro-structural indicators • Developing Mediterranean countries vs. other developing African and Asian countries: 1. More favourable: - reduction in child mortality 1990 -2005 - gross enrollment ratio in secondary education (% of relevant age group) - public debt/GDSP - ODA/GDP 2. Less favourable: - population rate of growth 90 -05 and forecast 2005 -15 - unemployment - poor infrastructures - oil-gas export dependence (Algeria, Lybia, Siria, Egypt) “The creation of the Union for the Mediterranean is hardly the rebirth of imperial Rome, but it may just be the start of something exciting” (The Economist, “Club Med”, July 12°, 2008) 6/14/2021 22
6/14/2021 23
FDIs: still rising in developing areas in 2008, unlike developed ones. How heavy 2009 fall? 6/14/2021 24
FDI into developing areas: no crush in 2009 6/14/2021 25
Egypt largest recipient of M&A investors from Europe and Gulf 6/14/2021 26
Euromed integration and outward oriented development: catching the opportunities and a long way to go! All the best! 6/14/2021 27
- Slides: 27