EURODELTACARB Augustin Colette INERIS TFMM cochair all EurodeltaCarb

EURODELTA-CARB Augustin Colette (INERIS), TFMM co-chair + all Eurodelta-Carb partners 21 st TFMM Meeting, Online, 11 -13 May, 2020

EURODELTA 2007 2010 2014 City. Delta / Euro. Delta-II Euro. Delta -III • model intercomparison at local/European scale • response to future (2020) emission scenarios • sensitivity to national/incremental emission reductions • EMEP Field campaigns • PM Composition (SOA/SIA) Model response (Benchmarking EMEP SRMs) Atmos. Processes (Model improvement) 2016 2019 Euro. Delta. Trends Euro. Delta. Carb • 1990 -2010 Hindcast over Europe • Black Carbon / Condensable / Ba. P Policy Effectiveness Impacts

EURODELTA-CARB: OVERVIEW • Joint EMEP/CAMS model intercomparison • Take stock of EMEP/ACTRIS/COLOSSAL field campaign (Winter 2017 -2018: BC tagging PMF) • 14 Participating Models • EMEP/MSC-W, EMEP/MSC-E, Lotos-Euros, Eurad, IFS, MINNI, DEHM, MOCAGE, GEM-AQ, MATCH, CHIMERE, SILAM, CAMx 6. 50, WRF-CHEM • Scope • Testing inventories including/excluding condensables • Assess Ba. P & LRTAP BC inventory • First results • Discrepancy of current official emission inventories • Including Condensable yield 20% bias reduction over Europe, up to 50% in some countries • Results to be taken up in Emission reporting processes ECwb/PM 2. 5

EURODELTA-CARB: SETUP • Modelling Setup • 0. 1 deg resolution, Wide European domain (25°W-45°E, 30°N-72°N) • 20171201 -20180228 • ECMWF meteorology&boundary conditions • Centralised input/output data at INERIS ECwb/PM 2. 5

EURODELTA-CARB: PLAN • Experimental Plan • A: CAMS-REF 1 (based on EMEP) • B: CAMS-REF 2 ( « consistent science based » ) • C: EMEP inventory • D: EMEP inventory inc. Black Carbon • E: EMEP inventory inc. Ba. P • Status: • A&B ongoing (8 modelled delivered) • C-E not started yet https: //wiki. met. no/emep-experts/tfmmeurodeltacarb ECwb/PM 2. 5

EURODELTA-CARB : CAMS EMISSIONS • Emissions provided by TNO (Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jeroen Kuenen): • A: CAMS-REG-AP_v 2. 2. 1_2015_REF 1: EMEP National Totals + TNO Spatialisation, filterable PM splits • B: CAMS-REG-AP_v 2. 2. 1_2015_REF 2: ( « consistent science based » ) Same as A but including Condensable for Small Combustion in primary PM (independently from EMEP national totals), condensable PM splits CAMS_81 (TNO, J. Kuenen) PM_split_for_CAMS-REG-AP_v 2_2_1_rev_20190326_REF 1_2015 CAMS_81 (TNO, J. Kuenen) PM_split_for_CAMS-REG-AP_v 2_2_1_rev_20190326_REF 2_2015

TAGGED EC IN REF 1 • 7 model median, 201712 -201812 mean • EMEP/MSC-W, DEHM, EURAD, WRF-CHEM, MINNI, MATCH, LOTOS-EUROS • Share of Elemental Carbon from wood burning (ECwb, left) or fossil fuels (ECff, right) in REF 1: • Sharp gradient in ECwb/PM 2. 5 between: • Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary, Romania) vs. (Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland) • Larger share of EC_ff in Ireland/Poland (coal/peat use) ECff/PM 2. 5 ECwb/PM 2. 5

TAGGED PM 2. 5 IN REF 1/REF 2 • 7 model median, 201712 -201812 mean • EMEP/MSC-W, DEHM, EURAD, WRF-CHEM, MINNI, MATCH, LOTOS-EUROS • PM 2. 5 in REF 1 (left) and REF 2 (right): • Increase in most countries REF 2: PM 2. 5 REF 1: PM 2. 5

TAGGED EC_WB IN REF 1/REF 2 • 7 model median, 201712 -201812 mean REF 2: ECwb/PM 2. 5 • EMEP/MSC-W, DEHM, EURAD, WRF-CHEM, MINNI, MATCH, LOTOS-EUROS • Share of Elemental Carbon from wood burning (ECwb) in REF 1 (left) and REF 2 (right): • Sharp gradient disappear • Lower ECwb because higher PPM emissions REF 1: ECwb/PM 2. 5

PM 10 SCORES • PM 10 bias change REF 1 -> REF 2 • Average: -18% Country % change in PM 10 bias AT BE CZ DE ES FR GB NL PL PT SK 14, 1 17, 9 28, 1 30, 1 14, 5 49, 7 12, 4 21, 0 18, 7 7, 7 16, 6

WRAP UP • Expectations • CAMS: model performances for PM forecasts • EMEP: Condensable PM, Ba. P, BC inventory • The Consistent Science Based residential emission inventory approach must be further evaluated for and by state parties • Asset • Multi-model approach with all main European operational/policy models • Synergy with EMEP/ACTRIS/COLOSSAL Campaign • Promising preliminary results • Status: Before Summer 2020: • Finalise experiments A-B • Launch experiments C-E • Ongoing discussion with CEIP to consolidate the most appropriate Ba. P and BC EMEP inventory for the year 2015 (2017 reporting) • Organisation of work • Synergy with CAMS_61 for model analysis • Looking for more volunteers! REF 2: PM 2. 5

THANKS ! • Modellers: • EMEP/MSC-W: Hilde Fagerli, David Simpson, Svetlana Tsyro (Met Norway MSC-W, NO) • EMEP/MSC-E: Alexey Gusev (MSC-East, RU) • DEHM: Camilla Geels, Lise Frohn (Aarhus, DK) • GEM-AQ: Joanna Strużewska (IEP, PL) • EURAD: Elmar Friese (Jülich, DE) • IFS: Samuel Rémy (Hygeos, FR) • MINNI: Mario Adani, Mihaela Mircea (ENEA, IT) • Lotos-Euros: John Ntouros (KNMI, NL), Renske Timmermans (TNO, NL) • MATCH: Ana Carvalho, Lennart Robertson, Camilla Andersson, (SMHI, SE) • CHIMERE: Frédérik Meleux, Florian Couvidat (INERIS, FR), Marta Garcia Vivanco (CIEMAT, ES), • MOCAGE: Joaquim Arteta (Meteo-France, FR) • WRF-CHEM: Aura Lupascu (IASS, DE) • Emissions • Jeroen Kuenen, Hugo Denier van der Gon (TNO, NL) • Post Processing • Blandine Raux (INERIS) • Valentin Petiot (Météo-France)