Euro area export and import of goods direct

Euro area export and import of goods: direct versus indirect seasonal adjustment Carmen Picón Luxembourg, 6 March 2012

Euro area export and import of goods • Frequency: monthly • Period: available from January 1999 • Components: country contributions to the euro area aggregate – No publishable data (inc. some confidential data) – Some countries (all the large and some small) with a clear seasonality – Some countries (small) with noseasonality or difficult to capture

Direct versus indirect seasonal adjustment The criteria used in the assessment: • (i) graphical analysis • (ii) study of the smoothness of the adjusted series • (iii) analysis of the seasonal factors • (iv) the assessment of standard quality measures • (v) estimates of residual effects in the seasonally adjusted series • (vi) stability analysis using revision histories and (vii) sliding spans.

Euro area balance of payments

Euro area balance of payments

(i) Graphical analysis Monthly growth rates: direct versus indirect approach: 1. Calculate from the absolute value of the differences 2. Percentage of concordance between the directly and indirectly seasonally adjusted series

Direct versus indirect seasonal adjustment The criteria used in the assessment: • (i) graphical analysis • (ii) study of the smoothness of the adjusted series • (iii) analysis of the seasonal factors

(iv) Assessment of standard quality measures

(vi) Stability analysis using revision histories Stability analysis: revision histories

(vi) Stability analysis using revision histories

Summary of quality measures applied to seasonally adjusted data of euro area goods 1. Same indicator, only for the last 3 years is in favour of DIR 2. Residual trading-day effect in the indirect adjustment 12

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