EU Enlargement FYR Enlargement from 6 to 27

EU Enlargement

FYR

Enlargement: from 6 to 27 1973: United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark q 1981 -86: Greece, Spain, Portugal q 1995: Sweden, Austria, Finland q 2004: “big bang”– eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe plus Malta and Cyprus q 2007: Bulgaria and Romania q

Copenhagen criteria “Membership requires that the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing. . . ” • 1) the rule of law, human rights and respect for, and protection of minorities • 2) democracy • 3) the existence of a functioning market economy

Why do CEEC countries want EU membership? • Geopolitics: security, Russia, global weight • Economics: aid, market access, European capitalism • Politics: consolidate democracy Why do 15 EU members support enlargement? • Geopolitics: stable borders • Economics: cheaper labor, consumers, growth • Politics: Moral obligation to stitch Europe

Regional disparitie s in the enlarged EU

COHESION POLICY Goal: reduce disparities among regions in the EU. About 1/3 of EU spending 2000 -2006 = 213 billion Euros 2007 -2013 = 330 billion Euros 0. 4% of total EU GDP Up to 10 % total public spending in new members

• • • • Corruption • Malta (36) Denmark (1) • Czech Rep (45) Sweden (1) • Hungary (47) Finland (5) • Slovakia, Latvia (52) Netherlands (7) • Italy (55) Canada (9) • Greece (57) Luxembourg (11) • Lithuania, Poland & Turkey (58) Austria (12) • Croatia (62) Germany (14) • Romania (70) Ireland, UK (16) • Bulgaria, Mexico, Macedonia Belgium, USA (18) (72) France (23) • Montenegro, and Serbia (85) Slovenia (26) • Bosnia (92) Estonia (27) Spain (28) Corruption ratings from Cyprus (31) Transparency International, 2008 Portugal (32)

Minority rights • Not in EU treaties, mainly Council of Europe (Commissioner of Human Rights) • Copenhagen criteria • Commission annual monitoring reports during accession • EU agency for fundamental rights • Private associations, e. g. EUmap. org [Soros] • Problems: – Russian minorities in Baltic states – Roma (esp. Central- and Eastern Europe)

EU wide survey, EUMidis, May 2009 (www. fra. europa. eu) 23, 500 persons from selected immigrant and ethnic minority groups in all 27 Member States of the European Union.

Eurobarometer 85 November 2005

Next enlargement candidates • Turkey, Croatia, Macedonia • Rest of Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania Beyond enlargement: European Neighborhood policy • Mediterranean: Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco • Caucasia: Azerbeidjan, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia • Budget for 2007 -12: 12 billion Euros

EU: top-down approach • Skeptical on capacity to create democracy, certainly not by the sword US: bottom-up approach • Optimistic about capacity to create democracy, if necessary by the sword • Focus on state building and consolidation • Focus on society building and promotion • Focus on rule of law, • Focus on elections, good governance • Work with judges, police forces, bureaucrats, political leaders civil society • Work with civil society groups, election monitoring, parties

What works for regime change? • Short-term: material incentives targeted at governments: Conditional EU membership • clear criteria (Copenhagen criteria) and procedure (Commission annual country reports, implementation and periodic monitoring reports) • multilateralism • bond markets reward ‘good policy’ by lending at lower interest rates • Essential: domestic political competition • Long-term: socialization + learning