Ettore Majorana Foundation and Center for Scientific Culture

Ettore Majorana Foundation and Center for Scientific Culture Pontificia Academia Scientiarum Session on Planetary Emergencies, The Vatican, November 25 th, 2009 The crucial Role of Science (and scientists) in Public Affairs A suggestion for coping with terrorism Richard Wilson Harvard University

"Scientific-technical realities cannot be overruled by political decisions without resulting in grave risks to the nation. " WKH Panofsky, 2007 referring to Missile Defense but also valid in other situations

“Humanity has been the subject of vicious attacks from extremists. Undoubtedly scientific centers that embrace all peoples are the first line of defense against extremists” King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia (opening a new University in 2009)

The subject is large and general. I will talk about a specific set of proposals for limiting the effects of terrorism. If it is well known (esp. to the terrorist) that the effects are limited the attack itself is less likely.

In 1820. . . The same man. . understood the science applied it to technology explained it to legislatures got approvals oversaw the action

Now, each step tends to be a separate discpline and each person in the chain often only interacts with the one just below The basic science can get lost and stupid decisions made

Politicians must reach down and understand basic science Scientists must not stay in an ivory tower but reach up and insist that the public and politicians base decisions on science

The Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism of WFS has identified two types of attack which we know how to mitigate. Release of a “dirty bomb” Release of a highly infectious agent

A “Dirty Bomb” would be the release of a radioactive 20, 000 Curies in a crowded area. This happened by accident in Brazil and less than a dozen people died, but depending on rules for clean up and reentry many square kilomenters of a major city could be unusable.

In contrast, release of an infectious agent could set off a pandemic (such as occurred naturally in 1918 -1919) That killed over 50 million people, but no territory was unusable.

It is realized professionally, but not yet publicly, that addressing a natural accident with large coinsequences, is a crucial step in addressing response to terrorism. But FIRST RESPONDERS MUST LEARN For a dirty bomb, consider the effect of the Brazilian accident

Terrorism PMP proposed that all first responder groups have some one who understands and is not afraid of radiation. Latent period for cancer is ~20 years. If I, 83 years, get cancer from an overdose it will be at age 103! Yet UK recommend that only people under 50 actively be involved!

In an emergency dedicated fast computer networks are useful with experts who understand hackers High Energy Physicists have one CERN and DOE operated by a group independent of “industry” and Govt. Departments and perhaps more believable

EU in May 2009 proposed greater cooperation with CERN. . . I propose that CERN and US DOE jointly offer to the world their computer network in an emergency. High energy physics data analysis could stop for awhile.

Physicist volunteers could be trained in advance, as I was before TMI and Chernobyl, to stop and explain. Management might be by CERN AND FERMILAB They could be “vetted” by the World Federation of Scientists (WFS)

Bioterrorism is different In an epidemic there are two basic numbers. (1) The time from infection to the time of infecting others (~ 1 week) (2) The average number of people infected 2 to 3 Adressing (1) The Chinese learned from SARS and are using quarantine to stop the H 1 N 1 virus. We can close schools etc

Addressing (2) We only need to reduce this from 2 or 3 to 0. 99 to stop a pandemic Yet this possibility is not understood and is still widely ignored If it succeeds there will be no pandemic Then the public may erroneusly say the restriction was unnecessary

In USA the Center for Disease Control (CDC) is widely respected. Since May 2009 their recommendations have been accepted. BUT New vaccines are inherently slow and the other steps are often ignored They also could benefit from a dedicated fast computer network

I also suggest that technology can shorten the time to recognize an emergency from 1 week to 1 hour. Representative digital temperature measurements can be sent automatically to a semi-central location with date, T, location for each. A cluster of fever can be located at once. This is being tested by a former student (Beth Israel Hospital and Exergen)

The same principles apply widely Understand the fundamentals emphasize them at all times. Units, words, all mean something Use them carefully KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL! A topical example where misuse of words still confuses (Nigel Lawson on Monday)

ENERGY PROBLEMS ENERGY conservation is true. It is conserved. FUEL conservation makes more sense but: who conserves solar energy? Fuel efficiency is only a partial solution Fuel restraint is more important Concentration on efficiency leaves nuclear power and carbon sequestration with no incentives Efficient use of coal: use the uranium therein (even Dick Garwin never proposed this!)

Climate change has a set of word usage problems which are not coincident CO 2 emissions do not affect climate: CO 2 concentrations can and perhaps do control early in a chain: easier and fewer loopholes. No Londoner who lived in the 1930 s believes in CLEAN COAL The real polluter will pay to find the loophole

Never expect to be thanked for being right. Always hope that your mistakes will not be held against you Thank you