ERTAC EGU OVERVIEW FOR THE 2016 EGU WORKGROUP

ERTAC EGU OVERVIEW FOR THE 2016 EGU WORKGROUP January 25, 2018 08 -2017 1

Introduction to ERTAC EGU State and planning organization collaboration to build a model to project future EGU emissions suited to state air quality planning Starting Point for v 2. 7 – 2011 Base Year (BY) hourly continuous emissions monitor (CEM) data • BY & FY unit activity matches meteorology • More realistic for SIP modeling – Growth rates (GRs) by fuel and region – EIA AEO 2017 & NERC • Coal, Oil, NG (CC, SC, Boiler Gas) – Information Supplied By States as of Spr 2017 • New units, retirements, seasonal & annual controls, fuel-switches, etc. ERTAC EGU Tool Generates Future Hourly Estimates – Manual power transfer across regional boundaries or fuel silos – Large NY nuke retired. Power transferred to two NG Combined cycle units – Regional unit capacity never exceeded Unmet demand applied to other units or new units created if demand exceeds system capacity on an hourly basis Hourly Emissions Converted to 08 -2017 SMOKE Format for AQ Modeling 2

Unit Level Hypothetical Example Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW 9000 Base Future 8000 Mmbtu/hr 7000 CEM Hourly Base Year Data 6000 5000 Variations in growth rate 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Calendar Hours 3

Hypothetical Unit Level Example Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW – SO 2 Control Future Base Year lbs/hr Future Year lbs/hr Base Calendar Hours 4

Growth Rates (GR) • Peak GR = 1. 07 • Annual GR = 0. 95 • Transition hours of 200 & 2, 000 • Non Peak GR = 0. 9328 (calculated) 5

Benefits of ERTAC EGU Growth Tool Conservative predictions No big swings in generation No unexpected unit shutdowns Inputs completely transparent Software not proprietary Hourly output files reflect base year meteorology Addresses HEDD concerns Quickly evaluates scenarios High and low natural gas penetration Different ways that sources might comply with a new rule (MATS) Retirements, growth, and controls 6

Source: EIA AEO 2006 – EIA AEO 2017, Table 8

Source: EIA AEO 2006 – EIA AEO 2017, Table 8

ERTAC EGU v 2. 7 AEO 2017 (Annual Growth) & NERC (Peak Growth) with two exceptions – SRVC and NYCW use Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) derived growth factors State unit updates as of Spring 2017 Generation transfers to alternate fuels to address identified issues – Transfer of Indian Point nuclear powerplant generation to combined cycle NG (for years after 2021) – Transfer of power in a few hours from coal to NG in RFCE (missing generation) – Transfer of power from coal to NG in FRCC/FL to alleviate coal GDU – Unit characteristic updates in SRDA to alleviate coal GDU (one unit at Big Cajun 2/LA) – Transfer of power from coal to NG in NEWE to alleviate coal GDU (2017 only) Emission rate adjustments on facilities with SCR & SNCR in CSAPR states for ozone season only – Units with SNCR’s reduced to 0. 125 lb/MMBtu (EPA did not reduce SNCR in their Analytics approach) – Units with SCR’s reduced to 0. 064 lb/MMBtu (EPA used 0. 1 lb/MMBtu) – Similar to MD study of “best rates” Emission rate adjustments on some facilities without post-combustion controls in OK 12/18/2021 9

0. 125 lb/MMBtu 08 -2017

Distribution of Optimized NOx rates for 141 SCR units included in MDE Study 0, 16 Optimized NOx Rate (lb/mm. Btu) 0, 14 0, 12 0, 10 0. 064 lb/MMBtu 0, 08 0, 06 0, 04 0, 02 0, 00 0 20 40 60 80 08 -2017 100 120 140 160

AEO 2017 no CPP w/controls - Analysis Need a 3: 1 ratio for emissions above assurance level 08 -2017

47% Overall Decrease in NOX ERTAC EGU V 2. 7 2023 and 2011 Emissions & Heat Input 61% Overall Decrease in SO 2 Heat input approximately the same 08 -2017 13

ERTAC EGU V 2. 7 2011 and 2023 Optimized versus Non-Optimized Ozone Season NOX Emissions Note: Some states in Western USA did not provide updates to ERTAC EGU for new units and controls. Examples include AZ, WY. Their 2023 emissions might be lower than was estimated. Only CSAPR states were optimized. 08 -2017 14

ERTAC EGU V 2. 7 2011, 2023 and 2016 CAMD Annual Emissions & Heat Input States where NOX for 23>>16 AR, AZ, KS, MS, NE, OK, TX, UT, WY DRAFT 08 -2017 15

Next Steps • ERTAC EGU committee is developing the 2016 base year with CSAPR compliant projections to 2028 & 2023. • Base year is done. • Projections are in progress 08 -2017 16

How do you find the files? ERTAC EGU files are located here: http: //www. marama. org/2013 -ertac-eguforecasting-tool-documentation Latest posted version is v 2. 7 Presentations & other materials from this outreach are located here: Username: apaty@marama. org Password: ERTACoutr 3 ach Sign In URL: https: //marama. sharefile. com/ Questions? 08 -2017 17

Extra Slides 08 -2017 18

NOX emissions by state (Tons/ozone season) 09 -11 -2012 1 19

UAF and Controls Input Files: How to Provide Input Doris Mc. Leod, Air Quality Planner Doris. Mc. Leod@deq. virginia. gov 804 -698 -4197 20

The Five Basic Files • • • Unit Availability File (UAF) – – – Backbone of the tool Unit level data Sources: CAMD, EIA, NEEDS, State Staff – – – Unit level data for SO 2 and NOx Emission rates or control efficiencies May be supplemented with the Seasonal Controls File – – Growth rates by region and fuel unit type Annual based on EIA reference case (AEO 2015 High Oil & Gas) Peak based on NERC Controls File Growth Rates File – • Input Variables File – – • A variety of variables that can be changed for each region and fuel unit type Many deal with new, planned units or GDUs CAMD Hourly Base Year Data 21

Controls File • Control data only affects emissions--does NOT affect activity • Allows close management of emission rates at the unit level – If the BY is an accurate reflection of EFs in the FY, no control files information is needed. – If the unit will be operated differently in the FY, apply that data to the controls file. • Please include NOx and SO 2 rates for new units or for units that undergo a fuel switch. • Please include the “Submitter’s Email Address” in that column! • Please provide a “reason” for the control. This could be: – – Permit limit taken State RACT rule Consent Decree #. . . Etc. 22

Controls File: Typical Entries for Documentation File-SO 2 & NOx • Blue columns are needed for processing • May submit either emission rate or control efficiency • If both are submitted, emission rate is used • For new or fuel-switched units, emission rate is needed (no BY data to which the control efficiency may be applied!) • Other columns are helpful, but the code will process the data with blanks in these columns

SO 2 0. 0589 1/1/2050 1/1/2012 0. 010 0. 894 Comments 0. 1014 1. 700 1/1/2050 1/1/2012 95. 0 0. 863 2012 CAMD SO 2 RATE (lbs/mmbtu) 1/1/2050 95. 0 2011 CAMD SO 2 RATE (lbs/mmbtu) Controlled SO 2 Rate (lbs/mm. Btu) 1/1/2050 0. 001 FGD Dry scrub ber SO 2 Control Efficiency SO 2 Control End Date 1/1/2012 FGD 4/17/2016 Use of NG SO 2 Control Start Date Virginia City Hybrid Energy 56808 1 VA Center SO 2 Control Equipment 3797 Chesterf ield Power 5 VA Station NEEDS ID 3797 Chesterf ield Power 3 VA Station camd unit type facility name state camd unit id oris plant id 3775 Clinch 1 VA River Unit switched to gas as required by permit. EF based on permit limit of 0. 001 lbs/mmbtu. See https: //www. deq. virginia. gov/P ortals/0/DEQ/Air/Permitting/Titl e. VPermits/ Voluntary control. EF based 0. 067 on 2014 CAMD data. Control required by federal CO. Limitation of 0. 10 lbs SO 2/mmbtu. EF based on 2014 CAMD data. Http: //www 2. epa. gov/sites/pro duction/files/documents/vepco cd. pdf New unit. Rate based on 2013 CAMD data. Limit is 0. 022 lbs/mmbtu SO 2. Title V permit dated Jan 1, 2014: http: //www. deq. virginia. gov/Po rtals/0/DEQ/Air/Permitting/Titl e. VPermits/11526_permit. pdf Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!

NOx 0. 19 Comments 0. 061 0. 22 2012 CAMD NOx RATE (lbs/mmbtu) 0. 13 2011 CAMD NOx RATE (lbs/mmbtu) Controlled NOx Rate (lbs/mm. Btu) NOx Control Efficiency 1/1/2050 NOx Control End Date SNCR 1/1/2012 Use of NG NOx Control Start 4/17/2016 Date NOx Control Equipment NEEDS ID Virginia City Hybrid Energy 56808 1 VA Center camd unit type facility name state camd unit id oris plant id 3775 Clinch 1 VA River Unit switched to gas as required by permit. Permit limit of 0. 18 lbs NOx/mmbtu. Rate based on similar unit’s CAMD data. See permit dated 8/3/2016. New unit. Rate based on 2013 CAMD data. Limit is 0. 070 lbs/mmbtu NOx. Title V permit dated Jan 1, 2014: http: //www. deq. virginia. gov/Po rtals/0/DEQ/Air/Permitting/Titl e. VPermits/11526_permit. pdf Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!

Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC) ERTAC convenes ad-hoc groups to solve specific inventory problems Collaboration: – States - NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan – Multi-jurisdictional organizations – Industry ERTAC EGU growth convened in 2009 Goal: Build a model to project future EGU emissions suited to State air quality planning Utility representatives provided guidance on model design and inputs 26