EPRI Powering Progress Superconductivity and Electric Power Several

EPRI Powering Progress Superconductivity and Electric Power: Several Future Scenarios P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Paul M. Grant EPRI DOE Peer Review Workshop 23 July 1997

EPRI Powering Progress What is Electricity? Electricity is the most efficient and convenient means mankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat…. P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

EPRI Electricity and the Quality of Life Powering Progress log [ per capita Electricity Generation] b Electricity directly P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Developed FSUs related to standard of living in most of the world Developing b Enormous increase in Emerging Persian Gulf log [ per capita GDP ] electricity usage seen for the 21 st century

Electricity & Qo. L: Asian Scene China Vietnam Cambodia P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Laos Philippines Indonesia EPRI Powering Progress

EPRI Electricity & Energy Conservation Powering Progress E/GNP (index: 1900=100) Electricity (%) 150 50 E/GNP ratio 130 Electricity fraction 40 110 30 90 20 70 10 50 1880 P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review Source: 23 July 1997 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 Electricity is the most efficient and convenient means mankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat…. 2000 Electricity in the American Economy, Sam H. Schurr, et al. , 1990

Electricity The Bottom Line P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

EPRI Powering Progress US Energy Flow - 1995 P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

EPRI Powering Progress US Electricity Flow - 1994 1 Quad = 0. 29 Tk. Wh 0. 15 Tk. Wh 0. 28 Tk. Wh 3. 24 Tk. Wh P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

Electricity Prices: 1995 EPRI US & Asia (¢US/k. Wh) Powering Progress 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 19 US: World: 5. 7 6. 4 7. 4 $324 B $1. 3 T 9 7. 4 4. 7 1. 9 Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand India China Japan US

Production/Loss Summary P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

EPRI Powering Progress The Electricity Paradigm b Generation/Storage b Transmission/Distribution b Delivery/End Use P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

EPRI The Electricity Paradigm and Superconductivity Powering Progress b Generation/Storage • Generators, SMES, Flywheels b Transmission/Distribution • Cables, Transformers, FCLs b Delivery/End Use • Motors, Electromagnets P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

Superconductivity and Efficiency P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

EPRI The Electricity Paradigm and Deregulation Powering Progress b Generation/Storage • Gen. Co – Deregulated, Open Market, Commodity Bidding b Transmission/Distribution • Tran. Co – Regulated, ISOs, Stewardship? b Delivery/End Use P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 • Serv. Co – Deregulated, Multi. Utility (Elec, Gas, Telecom, …)

EPRI Electricity. Transportation Analogy Powering Progress P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

EPRI Electricity Transmission and Deregulation Powering Progress b Public Stake in Viable Grid b Freeway System Analogy b Who’s in Charge? P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

California AB 1890 Summary EPRI Powering Progress b Implements electricity deregulation and mandates CEC to set up RD&D program b CEC RD&D Program Mission • “Public interest RD&D activities to advance energy science or technology not adequately provided by competitive and regulated markets” P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 b Funded by utilities and access rate levy • $62 M/yr

California AB 1890 RD&D Focus Areas b Renewable Energy b Energy Efficiency • Superconductivity? b Environmental Protection b Strategic Energy Research • Superconductivity? P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

Gas or Electricity? Pipes or Wires? P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

North American CH 4 EPRI There’s Lots of It Powering Progress Tcf 2400 2000 3 D Seismic Imaging Plus Directional Drilling Natural Gas Industry Estimates of Remaining Reserves 3 D Seismic Imaging 1600 50 Years at ‘ 97 Prices! 1200 800 Trendline GRI PGC 400 0 P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 EPRI

Monthly Price Fluctuations P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

EPRI Powering Progress Electricity from Gas Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (Aeroderived) Steam Turbine Generator >60% TE, $500/k. W GE, ABB, Hitachi P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 Gas Turbine

EPRI Distributed Generation: US &Europe Powering Progress b Use widespread NG pipeline network b Generation plants sited locally • • • Community of 60, 000: Subdivision of 1 -2000: Single Family Dwelling: 50 -100 MW 3 -5 MW 20 -30 k. W (100, 000 btu/hr) b Some level of storage required P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 b “Loosely” connected to grid

EPRI Distributed Generation: Approaches Powering Progress b Internal Combustion (GRI) b “Micro-turbines” (EPRI) b Solid Oxide Fuel Cells P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

Power by HTSC: Middle East P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

Power by HTSC: North America b EPRI Powering Progress Two Wheeling Scenarios: • Hudson Bay Hydo Power into New England/New York • Vera Cruz Gas Fields to Texas P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

Power by HTSC: Asia EPRI Powering Progress Location of Asian Gas Fields and Major Energy Use Centers P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997

Power by HTSC: Southeast Asia P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 EPRI Powering Progress

The Superconducting EPRI Electricity Pipe! Powering Progress P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 b Total Cryo System b Power: 5 GW dc b Cost: < Gas, HVDC > 500 Miles

EPRI Powering Progress Operating Parameters Capacity 50 k. A, ± 50 k. V; %GMW Length 1610 km Temperature Rise, 21, 600 liters LN 2/hr, 1 K every 10 km, 65 K, 100 k. W coolers, 120 1 W/m heat input gal/min -5 -4 Vacuum 10 -10 torr P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997 10 stations/10 km need 200 k. W

EPRI Powering Progress Gas/HVDC Comparison P. M. Grant DOE Peer Review 23 July 1997