Epistemological Foundations and Organisational Principles for a Futures

Epistemological Foundations and Organisational Principles for a Futures Toolkit – A Futures Literacy Perspective Riel Miller FUTURREG Turku, June 7, 2006 Riel Miller, 2005

The End of Certainty Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new rationality in which science is no longer and … weidentified are nowwith ablecertitude to include probability with ignorance. … science is no probabilities in the formulation of the longer limited to idealized and simplified basic laws of physics. Once this situations but reflects the complexity of is the real world, Newtonian a science that views us and our done, determinism fails; creativity as part of alonger fundamental trend by the future is no determined present at all levels of nature. the present…. Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature Riel Miller, 2005

A “non-modal” approach to thinking about the future Branching assumes that history can be envisaged as a tree with many branches, the bifurcation of which represents points where different events present agents with choices. . . (Booth et. al. p. 6) Riel Miller, 2005

Branching Subject (model) Time Riel Miller, 2005

A “modal” approach to thinking about the future The possible worlds thesis explores the possibilities that a number of different worlds exist, each different from our own - in so much as in these different worlds, different states of affairs have obtained. (Booth et. al. p. 7) Riel Miller, 2005

Possible Worlds (constrained by the same necessity – basic assumptions) Subject (model) NOW Time Riel Miller, 2005

What is futures literacy? Riel Miller, 2005

Definition Futures literacy is the capacity to question the assumptions used to make decisions today and to systematically explore the possibilities of the world around us through a mastery of rigorous imagining techniques. Riel Miller, 2005

Futures Literacy • Level 1 futures literacy – Temporal awareness, values, expectations • Level 2 futures literacy – Rigorous imagining • Level 3 futures literacy – Strategic scenarios Riel Miller, 2005

Thinking about the future: How to select which stories to tell Conceivable Futures ? ? Possible Futures Riel Miller, 2005

Level 1 Futures Literacy Temporal awareness, values, expectations Riel Miller, 2005

Step 1 - Value & trend scenarios • Method: Experiential - expectational • Strengths: Rich detail, normative-trend scenarios, accessible narratives, builds temporal awareness • Weaknesses: Incommensurate variables, incoherent models, usually ineffective for policy • Outcome: Leadership & dialogue • Products: Report explicit values & expectations, familiar stories Riel Miller, 2005

Baby Bear, Mamma Bear, Papa Bear Scenarios Population Papa Mamma Baby Time Riel Miller, 2005

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly Global Adopt Kyoto No Muddle Warming: Agreement agreements through (good) (bad) (ugly) Human Moderate Scenarios Massive impact on human climate induced disruption change disruption reduced of climate Build composite scenarios combining trends & preferences Riel Miller, 2005

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Bear Scenarios Knowledge Driven Commercially Driven Mixed Model Low enrollement growth Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Medium enrollment growth Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 High Enrollment growth Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Low enrollement growth Scenario 10 Scenario 11 Scenario 12 Medium enrollment growth Scenario 13 Scenario 14 Scenario 15 High Enrollment growth Scenario 16 Scenario 17 Scenario 18 Low rate of tech change High rate of tech change Riel Miller, 2005

Level 2 Futures Literacy 1. Rigorous imagining – a model sets parameters for the frame 2. Telling good stories narrative rules – assumptions for the frame 3. Form/function scenarios within the Frame Riel Miller, 2005

Step 2 - Rigorous imagining • Method: Construct possibility space, descriptive model of the subject • Strengths: Expands range of possible futures, tailored to task, analytical • Weaknesses: Non-obvious outcomes, no probability assessment, reduced number of variables • Outcome: Imagining futures that operate under different assumptions in an analytically clear fashion • Products: Builds up metrics (parameters) for a frame for mapping policy relevant scenarios that can be connected to probabilities & preferences Riel Miller, 2005

What is a possibility map? Select: – Specific topic – Theory (social science) underlying attributes – Variables (metrics) underlying attributes An example: – Specific topic: electricity – Dimension of change: pervasiveness – Possibility space of pervasiveness: a) ease-of-use b) range-of-uses Riel Miller, 2005

Technology possibility space Simple Ease of use Difficult Electricity Limited & homogeneous Range of uses Unlimited & heterogeneous How to select scenarios? Riel Miller, 2005

Step 3. Telling good stories – five narrative criteria for framing scenarios 1. Purpose/genre 2. Point-of-view 3. Temporal-chronological frame 4. Protagonists 5. Causal rules – the “physics of the situation” Riel Miller, 2005

1. What is the type or purpose of the story? Not tragedy or comedy, thriller or romance; but basic types: • contingency planning/simulation training • optimisation testing • discovery - exploration -imagining Riel Miller, 2005

2. What is the point-of-view? Not first or third person, stream -of-consciousness or dialogue; but is the story told in terms of: • the choices people make in their everyday lives (micro) or • aggregate outcomes (macro) – or • both explicit relationship between micro & macro Riel Miller, 2005

3. What is the temporal or chronological frame? Not beginning, middle and end; but • comparative static (two or more cross-sections) or • dynamic/path (time-series) or • backcasting (reverse engineered) Riel Miller, 2005

4. Who are the main protagonists? Not hero and villain; but who makes the decisions • a specific institution (sub-unit) or • a social/economic system (nation, sector, etc. ) or • institutions nested within a dynamic socio/economic context - interaction Riel Miller, 2005

5. What rules apply to the action? Not is time travel allowed or Matrix like suspension of the rules of physics; but what arethe assumptions that provide the analytical definitions and causal relationships that make for robust social science. Riel Miller, 2005

Example: the narrative assumptions for my “Learning Intensive Society” narrative: • Purpose : Goal discovery – what is the potential of the present? • Point-of-view: Change in daily life (metric: agriculture to industry) • Temporal frame: Comparative static crosssection in 2030 • Protagonist: socio-economic system (wealthy countries) • Rules: universal declaration of human rights, representative democracy, mixed economies (markets not planning) Riel Miller, 2005

Framing the scenarios Riel Miller, 2005

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Stories within the frame Riel Miller, 2005

Step 4 - Form and Function Scenarios • Method: Uses hypotheses regarding “role” & organisation to select scenarios within the “frame” • Strengths: Clear selection criteria based on possibility space descriptive model as a way to specify systemic outcomes under different assumptions • Weaknesses: Perceived as disconnected from probability & desirability (but consistent with end of certainty) • Outcome: Decision compatible scenarios • Products: Scenarios that clarify current assumptions & highlights strategic choices (that then need to be considered in light of expectations & preferences) Riel Miller, 2005

Six Electrification Scenarios Organisation Functions Only as a Weapon Industrial Power Consumer Power Centralised Decentralised Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Map on to possibility space Riel Miller, 2005

History S 2 S 4 S 1 S 6 S 3 S 5 Riel Miller, 2005

Level 3 Futures Literacy Strategic scenarios – Having distinguished possible, probable and desirable: – Reintroduce values and probability – Focus on the assumptions and how choices might make a difference (defensive, neutral, transformative) Riel Miller, 2005

Possible, probable, desirable Conceivable Futures Strategic Scenarios Desirable Futures GBU & Possibility Bear Futures Space Futures Probable Futures Possible Futures Riel Miller, 2005

Step 5 - Strategic Scenarios • Method: Use possibility space descriptive model (Step 2) within a frame (Step 3) to map form/function scenarios (Step 4) using, in part, values & expectations revealed in (Step 1) to select strategic (systemic assumption altering – or not) policy choices (Step 5) • Strengths: High degree of imagination & policy compatibility of scenarios • Weaknesses: Not predictive • Outcome: Focuses decision making on changes today that might lead to a different future, capacity building for using/coping with spontaneity • Product: stories of alternative presents Riel Miller, 2005

Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method • Level 1 FL – Values – Expectations – Preliminary dimensions of the subject • Level 2 FL – – – Define subject using a descriptive model (variables) Construct possibility spaces using variables Frame the narrative Develop function and form scenarios Map the scenarios in the possibility space • Level 3 FL – Assess scenarios in terms of values – Analyse scenario assumptions and pre-conditions compared with today (the potential of the present) – Compare current choices with the choices implied by the scenarios – Make decisions now with a greater awareness of the possibilities of the world around you Riel Miller, 2005

A Perilous Transition? Image: Sempe – crowd on a tight rope going from A to B Certainly, if we do it this way Futures Literacy as an alternative Riel Miller, 2005

Motivating questions How can we: • reconcile greater freedom with collective choices? • embrace greater diversity without inviting fragmentation & chaos? • foster greater creativity without increasing burn-out & stress? • inspire responsibility? • motivate change without resorting to fear? • manage risk without hierarchy? • combine respect for complexity while still gaining depth of understanding? Riel Miller, 2005

Why futures literacy matters • Hope matters for motivation – what makes change worth the candle • Capacity to understand manage risk – making freedom and heterogeneity liveable • Grasping the potential of a nonergodic conjuncture: change in the conditions of change Riel Miller, 2005

A time for method and methods for our time Why futures literacy now? Because a futures literate society can use: – diversification, imagination and interdependency to • embrace spontaneity, experimentation & complexity • without being overwhelmed by – fear of the risks (perception) – failure (reality of risk) • in order to inspire aspirations consistent with a world where means are ends (values in practice) Riel Miller, 2005

Build a bridge to nowhere, instead of planning use complexity, heterogeneity, network density and the capacity for spontaneity Riel Miller, 2005

“Virtually every step in the history of human innovation and invention has come about in the wake of someone asking about imaginary possibilities, speculating about what would happen if and reflecting on yet-unrealised and perhaps unrealisable possibilities. " Nicholas Rescher, Imagining Irreality Thank you Riel Miller, 2005