EPAs Power Sector Projections Use of 2016 Data

EPA’s Power Sector Projections Use of 2016 Data Serpil Kayin, CAMD

Recent History and Upcoming EGU Projections Last vintage of IPM/NEEDS (v 5) was based on 2011 NOx rates, with subsequent unit level updates using more recent NOx rates as we heard in the form of comments/corrections and also reflecting retirements, new capacity additions and retrofits as they came online between 2011 and 2017 and they were incorporated in subsequent versions (v 5. 13 through v 5. 16). Final Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Update (September 2016) 2015 Ozone NAAQS NODA (December 2016) Last publicly released EGU projections and AQM used 2016 CAMD data (NOx rates) for all units in projecting 2023 emissions with an engineering analytics approach for EGUs. (October 2017) IPM v 6 and NEEDS v 6 will be available in Summer 2018 Using latest available data (mostly reflects late 2017) 2016 winter and 2017 summer NOx rates (CAMD data) Prior to that, OAQPS and CAMD will work with the national EGU WG on the cross-walk files and updates/improvements to temporalization process. 2

Power Sector Projections Analytic Toolkit Inputs for any tool or model National Electric Energy Data System (NEEDS) fleet with retrofits, retirements, and builds Pollution control retrofit cost analyzer Coal supply and gas supply Electric vehicle deployment impact on electricity demand Tools and models to project future-year power sector behavior Integrated Planning Model (IPM) v 6 Key updates and architectural changes to load, gas, and RE Base case sensitivity scenarios Data viewer for state/regional results alongside historical data Juicebox Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC) Electric Generating Unit (EGU) Forecasting Tool Post-processing tools to consider impacts of interest Retail electricity and gas pricing models Labor demand 3

National Electric Energy Data System (NEEDS) NEEDS is a unit-level database of existing and committed generating units Reference forward-looking “state of the fleet” as well as basis for model plants in IPM Represents a “snapshot” of the generating fleet in a given year Includes all operational capacity (existing units) plus units that are not currently operating, but have either broken ground and/or secured financing (“planned-committed”) Planned retirements are removed from NEEDS if future implementation of the announced action is sufficiently certain Contains information about plant characteristics, including: Location, type, capacity, age, heat rate Existing/planned pollution controls Fuel access NOX emissions rates—complaint with Final CSAPR Update (2017) CAMD 2016 data for winter rates CAMD 2017 data for ozone season (which reflects CSAPR Update Rule) Data Sources: EIA Form 860, NERC ES&D, AEO, Ventyx New Entrants, SNL, EPA ECMPS, comments 4

NEEDS: Additional Resources Available at https: //www. epa. gov/airmarkets/clean-airmarkets-power-sector-modeling Page is sorted chronologically, with most recent version at top NEEDS Database https: //www. epa. gov/sites/production/files/201612/needs_v. 5. 16_for_2015_ozone_naaqs_transport_noda. xlsx NEEDS User guide https: //www. epa. gov/sites/production/files/201508/documents/needs_v 515_user_guide_august_2015. pdf IPM Documentation, Chapter 4: Generating Resources https: //www. epa. gov/sites/production/files/201507/documents/chapter_4_generating_resources_0. pdf 5