EP 06 Energy and Climate Change Dr JeanFrancois

EP 06: Energy and Climate Change Dr Jean-Francois Mercure, jm 801@cam. ac. uk Lectures 1, 4 -8 Pablo Salas, pas 80@cam. ac. uk Lectures 2 -3 Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research 21 Silver Street www. 4 cmr. group. cam. ac. uk

EP 06: Structure of the course Lecture 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - International framing, - Climate science - Energy use, by sector, region, resource/product Lecture 2 -3: Global energy resources and technologies - History of energy consumption - Energy technologies: non-renewables - Energy technologies: renewables - Quantitative approach to energy resources: non-renewables - Quantitative approach to energy resources: renewables Lecture 4: Energy economics - Understanding GDP versus energy consumption - Resource intensity, carbon intensity, emissions - Energy demand economic development - Energy access and energy poverty Lectures 5 -6: Innovation and technological change - Historical trends of technology diffusion - Learning-by-doing and increasing returns - Innovation-diffusion theory - Overview of evolutionary economics - Technological change and economic growth - Modelling technological change

EP 06: Structure of the course Lectures 7 -8: Energy and climate policy - Energy policy instruments - Innovation policy and R&D support, innovation systems - Practical exercise: scenarios of future climate policy - Economic growth, development versus climate policy, the various views - Co-benefits: health, synergies across sectors Practical exercise: Practical team work to submit at the last lecture March 8! 30% of the final mark Policy analysis using a computational tool, teams of 4 -5 Tutorials with explanations on Fridays at 12 -2 pm on Jan 30, Feb 13, 20 and 27 Final Test: 70% of the final mark Written exam on everything in these lectures + the practical exercise Recommendations for the course: Be present at every lecture or you may fail Download/read/print notes before the lecture Read texts given at lectures, subject of exam Do not free-ride on the practical exercise, this could impact your exam

Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - Which gases? - How much? International Energy Agency - Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII - Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII - Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways – IPCC - Climate Science - From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion - From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle - From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect - From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect - Impacts of climate change

Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Primary energy use globally - Fossil fuels – Oil, gas, coal - Nuclear - Renewables - Who uses what? Sectors - Who uses what? Countries - Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? - Back to GHG emissions – future projections

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - Which gases? - CO 2: carbon dioxide - CH 4: methane - N 2 O - F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 IPCC AR 5 WGIII Technical Summary p 11 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - Which gases? Gases with high global warming potentials - CO 2: carbon dioxide: fuel combustion – long-lived ( >> 100 years ) 57% (IPCC 2007) E. g. Petrol for transport: C 8 H 18 + 8 O 2 -> 9 H 2 O + 8 CO 2 + Heat Natural gas: CH 4 + O 2 -> 2 H 2 O + CO 2 + Heat Coal: Cn. H 2 n+2 + (3 n+1)/2 O 2 → (n+1) H 2 O + n CO 2 + Heat - CO 2: Agriculture, forestry and land use 17% Deforestation, decay, peat and fires - CH 4: methane: oil + gas extraction, agriculture – short-lived (10 Years -> CO 2) 14% Oil + gas industry: drilling, leaks, flaring Agriculture: cattle farming Waste - N 2 O: (130 years) 8% Agriculture and fossil fuel combustion - F-gases 1% HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 IPCC AR 4 WGIII Ch 1 p 103 (2007)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - Which gases? Global warming potentials: http: //unfccc. int/ghg_data/items/3825. php

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - How much? Emissions from fuel combustion, from the International Energy Agency 10% 22% 21% 5% 38% Electricity sector dominated, followed by transport and industry IEA CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII IPCC AR 5 WGIII Technical Summary p 14 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII Europe + North America: ~ flat emissions Developing economies: fast rising emissions IPCC AR 5 WGIII Technical Summary p 13 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - What are GHG emissions? - Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) – IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Structure: WGI – The physical sciences – Climatology WGII – Impacts and Adaptation – Geography, agriculture, land use, social sciences WGIII – Mitigation – Economics, energy, engineering, agriculture 8. 5 – Business as usual (BAU) 6. 0 – Highly unlikely to meet the 2 deg target 4. 5 – 50% chance meeting the 2 deg target 2. 6 – Highly likely to meet the 2 deg target RCPs are common assumptions about future emissions in order to evaluate on a common basis impacts of emissions and climate change. Named according to their forcing in W/m 2. But what is the 2 deg target, what is the impact? IPCC AR 5 WGIII Technical Summary p 13 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion - Fuels have a fairly well-defined carbon content (e. g. petrol, kerosene, natural gas, anthracite, lignite etc) - IPCC convention: Emissions are calculated from fuel use at the point of use (e. g. coal use in plant, fuels sold at pump) - Emissions reported, otherwise estimated - Must avoid double-counting - IPCC 2006 provides complete methodology IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle IPCC AR 5 WGI Ch 6 p 471 (2013)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle - CO 2 Emissions (Gt/y) -> CO 2 concentration (ppm) Requires modelling the carbon cycle Where does the CO 2 go? Ocean? Biomass? etc - Uncertainty is important! IPCC AR 4 WGIII TS p 42 (2007) Mercure et al Energy Policy 73 686 -700 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From concentrations to radiative forcing and warming – greenhouse effect - Earth’s energy balance: radiation influx, radiation outflux, absorption - 3 types of models: (1) simple energy balance, (2) intermediate complexity (3) General circulation model (e. g. on supercomputers at Hadley centre)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect IPCC AR 4 WGIII ch 3 p 199, TS p 42 (2007) Mercure et al Energy Policy 73 686 -700 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect - Perhaps the most important/insightful AR 5 chart - Very simple relationship between cumulative emissions – warming - Remember: cumulative emissions cannot go backwards - Enables to define carbon budgets IPCC AR 5 WGI TS p 104 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect Back to RCPs: different levels of warming at stabilisation times, which are in the very long term IPCC AR 5 WGI TS p 94 (2014) IPCC AR 5 WGI TS p 89 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - Impacts of climate change

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - Impacts of climate change Contributions to sea level rise: - Melting glaciers - Thermal expansion IPCC AR 5 WGI TS p 49 (2014)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - Impacts of climate change Areas at risk of flooding due to sea level rise IPCC AR 4 WGII Summary for Policymakers (2007)

Lecture 1 -H 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - Climate Science - Impacts of climate change What does warming mean for the planet? Here’s a nice summary from AR 4 IPCC AR 4 WGII TS p 37 (2007)

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Primary energy use globally - Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables - Nuclear - Renewables - Who uses what? Sectors - Who uses what? Countries - Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? - Back to GHG emissions – future projections

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Primary energy use globally - Total primary energy production: 560 EJ/y - Fossil fuels: 461 EJ/y - Oil: 176 EJ/y - Coal: 166 EJ/y - Gas: 119 EJ/y - Nuclear: 27 EJ/y - Renewables: 74 EJ/y - Hydro: 13 EJ/y - Biomass: 54 EJ/y - Wind: 1. 9 EJ/y - Solar: 1. 3 EJ/y - Geothermal: 2. 7 EJ/y - Total primary energy use: 560 EJ/y - Energy industry + transf. : 176 EJ/y - Industry: 106 EJ/y - Transport: 105 EJ/y - Buildings: 130 EJ/y - Non-energy 34 EJ/y IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables 2012, Units: TJ - Coal: - Primarily in electricity generation 58% - Oil - Primarily in transport 55% (of production) 65% (of final use) - Gas - Electricity (39%), industry (21%), buildings (21%) - Biomass - 84% for heating and cooking in developing countries - Nuclear + renewables: - Near to 100% into electricity IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Nuclear - Notes - Forms ‘Exclusive nuclear club’ - Europe largest (mainly france, 80% of French Electricity) - Followed by USA - Japan + Korea large - Fukushima accident: Japan nuclear uncertain, Germany phase out IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Renewables - Notes - Renewables are evenly distributed around the world (natural processes) - Renewables are local resources, mostly not exportable (e. g. wind, solar) - Dominated by hydro and biomass - Hydro is the ‘most convenient’ renewable resource for electricity - Biomass for heating and cooking, mostly in developing countries - Renewables comparatively small, very small when excluding hydro IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Who uses what? Sectors IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014 2012 Total energy use, Units: TJ

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Who uses what? Countries - Main features: - EU, USA, other developed nations: large but flat energy consumption - BRIC countries: large and very fast rising energy consumption - Middle East and rest of the world: large and rising - World: more than doubled since 1970 IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Who uses what? Countries - Main features: - Industry important in BRIC countries - Transport important in USA - Buildings/homes important in Africa, EU - Energy industry important in the Middle-East - China largest energy user - USA similar to EU IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Who uses what? Countries IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? 2008 TPED = 514 EJ (IEA WEO 2010) Fossil fuels: 425 EJ (82%) (IEA WEO 2010) 2100 TPED = 600 – 1200 EJ 1. 1 – 2. 3 higher than today Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us ? – Electricity Mercure et al. Energy Policy 2014

Lecture 1 -H 2: Introduction to energy and climate change - Energy - Back to GHG emissions – future projections – IPCC 100 60 40 Gt. CO 2/y 80 20 0 CO 2: O – C – O Mass C: 12 atomic units Mass O: 16 atomic units Mass CO 2: (12+16+16) = 44 Atomic units => Conversion factor C -> CO 2 = 3. 666

Lecture 1: Further reading - Following this lecture, please read: - IPCC AR 5 WGIII Technical Summary (TS) 2014 – go the IPCC website and download the report! - IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2014 – free IEA publication http: //www. iea. org/publications/freepublications/publication/ key-world-energy-statistics-2014. html (Type Key World Energy Statistics 2014 in google!) - Have a scan through IPCC AR 5 WGI Technical Summary 2013 (Not in the exam! But know your IPCC!) - Questions in the exam: could be on anything in this presentation, including in the readings! Practical work (essay) to be submitted on March 8 th (at the last lecture, 30% final grade) - We will be using an electricity sector policy simulation software - We will form teams of 4 - For each team: find a computer with Matlab/Install Matlab on your computer - Please read the model and scenario descriptions: Mercure (2012) Energy Policy 48 799 -811 http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1016/j. enpol. 201206. 025 Mercure et al. (2014) Energy Policy 73 696 -700 http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1016/j. enpol. 2014. 06. 029 - The essay will be about creating scenarios of electricity policy - The model is available at http: //www. 4 cmr. group. cam. ac. uk/research/FTT/fttviewer

Lecture 1: References Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue https: //www. pik-potsdam. de/research/sustainablesolutions/flagshipspld/Mitigation. Scenarios/adam IEA CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014, IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014 Access IEA databases through http: //ukdataservice. ac. uk/get-data/key-data/international-macro-databanks. aspx IPCC AR 5 WGI (2013), IPCC AR 5 WGIII (2014) Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group 1: The physical sciences basis (2013), http: //www. ipcc. ch Work Group 3: Mitigation of Climate Change (2014) IPCC AR 4 WGII (2007), IPCC AR 4 WGIII (2007) Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http: //www. ipcc. ch/report/ar 4/ IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006) http: //www. ipcc-nggip. iges. or. jp/public/2006 gl/ Mercure, J. -F. , Salas, P. , Foley, A. , Chewpreecha, U. , Pollitt, H. , Holden, P. B. , & Edwards, N. R. (2014). The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector. Energy Policy, 73, 686– 700. http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1016/j. enpol. 2014. 06. 029