Shape of the path Tilt of the axis Closeness to the sun Milankovitch Cycles
Greenland Icesheet Reached Bottom Summer 2003; ice before last ice age Coral Reefs show similar trends
Ice Age Cycles • N. Am. ice sheet forms • The Gulf stream shuts down due to decrease in salinity • Poles cool • Thermohaline circulation returns • Moving warm air poleward - warming
Communities Through Time • Communities have to change as climate change. • Communities move latitudinal and altitudinal • Paleoecology – reconstruction of past ecosystems
Ambrosia
Plant Migrations
Olympic Marmot
Vancouver Marmot
Cascades
Only Wettest Areas Remained
Alternate Hypothesis
Blitzkrieg Hypothesis
Reliability of Data
Global Temperatures – New Views With Better Resolution and Periods
25% reduction in sea ice
The Last 50 Years • Mainland Europe, 22 species of butterflies extended their range northward since 1970 • Several bird species likewise – bee eater, Turkish dove • In southern England frogs lay their eggs 20 days earlier and newts return 40 days earlier • Danish Agriculture experience 10 more growing days • Birds lay their eggs 8 -10 days earlier • Marmots appear 38 days earlier in Colorado since 1976
Natural Fluctuations or Humans? • Highest temperatures in the past 650, 000 years • Rate of change is the greatest ever
CO 2 and Temperature
1015 g
Habitat Fragmentation • Species area curves • Lessons from islands