Environmental Modeling Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade Mnster 2013
Environmental Modeling Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade Münster, 2013
INPE: CONVERTING DATA INTO KNOWLEDGE SATELLITES Earth observation, scientific, and data collection satellites GROUND SYSTEMS Satellite control, reception, processing and distribution of satellite data ANALYSIS AND MODELLING Space Weather, Weather Prediction and Earth System Science SOCIETAL BENEFITS Innovative products to meet Brazil´s needs
Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia DETER: 15 -day alerts of newly deforested large areas
Clear-cut deforestation mapping of Amazonia
What is a model? § A model is a simplified representation of a phenomenon, process, actor, system, or any complex entity.
Examples of models – atom § Concept q Indivisible entities over which matter is built § Model q q q Dalton, 1807 solid sphere Thomson, 1904 plum pudding Rutherford, 1911 Positive nucleus + negative electrosphere Bohr, 1913 Nucleus + electrons with different levels of energy Schrondinger, Pauli Subatomic particles Dalton, 1807 Thomson, 1904 Rutherford, 1911 Bohr, 1913
Examples of models – Shape of the Earth § Concept q § Place where we live. Environment. Model q q Flat archaic belief Spherical q q Mathematics q q Pythagoras (AD 570) Suggested that Earth could be spherical Aristotle (AD 330) First evidence: semi-circular shadow at moon Eratosthenes (AD 240) First estimate of Earth’s circumference Scotsman Mc. Laurin (1742) Flat Carl Jacobi (1834) Elipsoidal Henri Poincaré (1885) Periform Dynamic geoid Dynamic Modern geodesy Flat Spheric Ellipsoid Periform
Earth – Our Environment
Dynamic Models Time t S F(S) Time t + 1 World E(S) f(s) Model s Source: Miller and Page 2005?
Dynamic Models 1997 S World Modell ? ? 2007 ? f(s)
Why modeling? § Understand how the system behaves § Simulate future and alternative scenarios § Support decision making and public policies using scientific knowledge
Human actions and global change photo: C. Nobre Global Change Where are changes taking place? How much change is happening? Who is being impacted by the change? What is causing change? photo: A. Reenberg
Computational models Connect expertise from different fields Make the different conceptions explicit If (. . . ? ) then. . .
Why computational models? § Can represent heterogeneity § Formal language to represent the model q Avoid ambiguity q Stable description of the model q Implementation allows experiments q Reproducibility (How did you do that? )
Modeling is a cyclic process
Environmental Modeling Course § Computer simulation of environmental processes § Different approaches Systems theory § Cellular automata § Agent-based modeling §
Environmental Modeling Course § Practical course § Activities Exercises § Final project § § Wiki: www. terrame. org/erasmus § Schedule Classes on Wednesdays, from 2: 00 PM to 4: 00 PM § Office hours: Tuesdays, from 2: 00 PM to 5: 00 PM § § Email pedro. andrade@inpe. br § andrade@uni-muenster. de §
Terra. ME: Terra Modeling Environment Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade Münster, 2013
Terra. ME: Computational environment for developing nature-society models Cell Spaces Source: [Carneiro et al. , 2013]
Terra. ME´s way: Modular components 1. Get first pair 2. Execute the ACTION 3. Timer =EVENT return value true 1: 32: 00 Mens. 1 2. 1: 32: 10 Mens. 3 3. 1: 38: 07 Mens. 2 4. 1: 42: 00. . . Mens. 4 4. time. To. Happen += period Temporal structure Spatial structure latency > 6 years 1. Deforesting Newly implanted Year of creation Iddle Slowing down Deforestation = 100% Rules of behaviour Spatial relations Source: [Carneiro et al. , 2013]
Terra. ME
Environmental Models with Terra. ME Propagação de Queimadas Source: (Almeida et al, 2008) Modelos Hidrológicos Source: (Carneiro, 2006) Modelos LUCC Source: (Carneiro, 2006)
Terra. ME team § CCST-INPE q Pedro Andrade, Miguel Monteiro, Gilberto Camara, Raian Maretto, Daniel Santos § UFOP/Terra. Lab q Tiago Carneiro, Rodrigo Reis, Antônio Rodrigues § DPI/OBT-INPE q Terra. Lib team
www. terrame. org § Terra. ME version 1. 2 § Documentation Lua for Terra. ME: A Short Introduction § Terra. ME Types and Functions §
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