Environmental impact evaluation in transport Harun Dogo Environmental

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Environmental impact evaluation in transport Harun Dogo Environmental Economist Environment and Natural Resources, World

Environmental impact evaluation in transport Harun Dogo Environmental Economist Environment and Natural Resources, World Bank July 18, 2017

Transport projects have diverse environmental effects

Transport projects have diverse environmental effects

Effects of transport projects on land resources • Direct: o Land use change o

Effects of transport projects on land resources • Direct: o Land use change o Forest conversion o Habitat fragmentation • Indirect: o Sprawl o Loss of natural capital o Reduction in ecosystem services • Cumulative: o Reduced carbon sequestration (climate change) Effect of Road Quality on Forest Clearing Intensity (Barra et al. , 2016) See Rodrigue (2017) for further description of impacts

Data and monitoring for land resource impacts Data type Collection method Benefits Challenges Tree

Data and monitoring for land resource impacts Data type Collection method Benefits Challenges Tree cover/land feature recognition high-resolution remote sensed image processing Conducted remotely, cover large areas Can be expensive to purchase/process highresolution imagery Ground monitored data On-the-ground monitoring by individuals Capture nuance that remote sensing cannot Impractical for large impact areas, conflict zones, etc. Aerial imagery Image collection from airplanes or drones Less labor-intensive than ground monitoring, but still local engagement Requires both local data collection and image processing White dots indicate detected oil palm trees in remotely sensed imagery (CRISP, 2001) Soil sampling can determine contaminants/VOCs Drone imagery can target specific areas/resources to monitor

Assessment of land resource impacts Cost-benefit analysis: value of natural capital x extent of

Assessment of land resource impacts Cost-benefit analysis: value of natural capital x extent of impact = significance of impact Example: Parallel assessment of feasible project options in Botswana including environmental impact costs (Botswana Ministry of Works, Transport & Communications, 2001) Hotspot analysis: show overlapping impacts of transport development with cities, biodiversity, economic opportunities, etc. Example: Estimation of road effects on forest cover and biodiversity indicators in the DRC combine to simulate effects of transport policy implementation (Barra et al. , 2016)

Effects of transport projects on air quality Direct: o Noise o Local pollution (particulate

Effects of transport projects on air quality Direct: o Noise o Local pollution (particulate matter, carbon monoxide) Indirect: o Respiratory and cardiovascular problems Cumulative: o Greenhouse gas effects (climate change) Deaths from Ambient Air Pollution (OECD, 2014)

Data and Monitoring for Air Quality Impacts Data type Collection method Benefits Challenges Remotely

Data and Monitoring for Air Quality Impacts Data type Collection method Benefits Challenges Remotely sensed particulate matter data Processed satellite images Free, open global sources available Modeled surfaces mean some inaccuracy Ground monitored chemical/noise data Ground air monitoring stations, blood testing, noise monitoring tools Greater local accuracy Expensive, difficult to implement CO 2 concentrations Processed satellite images/ground monitoring or modeled estimation of impact Climate change impacts taken into account Longer-term, dispersed effects mean difficult to monitor locally – estimating impacts with general models can also be inaccurate Blood tests can reveal human exposure to harmful substances like lead Noise pollution monitor Atmospheric CO 2 monitoring (NOAA, 2017)

Assessment of air quality impacts Approach for evaluation of mortality and morbidity from road

Assessment of air quality impacts Approach for evaluation of mortality and morbidity from road traffic-related air pollution in Austria, France, and Switzerland (Sommer et al. , 2000) • Need to consider current/future traffic loads, fuel types, exposure, etc. • National/international assessment tools and frameworks: • WHO Air. Q+ software tool for health risk assessment of air pollution • US Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Science Assessments • Ananberg et al. (2016) assess 12 multinational air pollution health impact assessment tools

Effects of transport projects on water resources • Direct: o Water pollution from runoff

Effects of transport projects on water resources • Direct: o Water pollution from runoff o Habitat fragmentation o Fuel spills o Dredging • Indirect: o Groundwater contamination o Air pollution fallout o Invasive species transfer • Cumulative: o Long-term water quality decline Satellite imagery shows “ship tracks” of elevated NO 2 levels from shipping pollution (NASA, 2012) For more information, see US DOT (2002), World Wildlife Fund (2017) and Rodrigue (2017)

Data and Monitoring for Water Resource Impacts Data type Remotely sensed water pollution/ temperature

Data and Monitoring for Water Resource Impacts Data type Remotely sensed water pollution/ temperature Collection method Satellite imagery processing Water quality levels Local testing Benefits Challenges Global, open source data available Modeled surface, may not be frequently updated or high enough resolution to show project impact Fine-scale, targeted water quality data Difficult to isolate effects of project Water quality test instruments

Assessment of water resource impacts • Hydrologic impact modeling • Valuation of costs •

Assessment of water resource impacts • Hydrologic impact modeling • Valuation of costs • Ecosystem service valuation (value of ecosystems to humans) • Hedonic pricing (isolating environmental value based on willingness -to-pay) Pucallpa-Cruzeiro do Sul road, Peru Tracking ecosystem services (erosion control, Land cover classification to determine connected nutrients in drinking water, carbon storage) pavement for hydrologic modeling redistribution from road development and mitigation (Janke & Gulliver, 2011) in the Amazon (Mandle et al. , 2011)

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Useful Resources for More Information • Rodrigue, J-P (2017). The Environmental Impacts of Transportation.

Useful Resources for More Information • Rodrigue, J-P (2017). The Environmental Impacts of Transportation. https: //people. hofstra. edu/geotrans/eng/ch 8 en/conc 8 en/c h 8 c 1 en. html • Anenberg, Susan C. , Anna Belova, Jørgen Brandt, Neal Fann, Sue Greco, Sarath Guttikunda, Marie-Eve Heroux, et al. 2016. “Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools. ” Risk Analysis 36 (9): 1718– 36. doi: 10. 1111/risa. 12540.

Data sources for land resources Indicators Country Coverage Database/Source Forest coverage and loss Hansen

Data sources for land resources Indicators Country Coverage Database/Source Forest coverage and loss Hansen et al. , 2013 Soil degradation Naipal 2015 Vegetation Index (NDVI); Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Global Biodiversity Hot Spots (2011): IBAT and Conservation International Biodiversity Bird areas Protected areas NEO (MODIS/Terra) 70 countries Endemics Bird Areas (1987 -1998): IBAT Protected Areas (2014): World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) (April 2014)

Data sources for air quality Indicators Country Coverage Database/Source PM 2. 5 air pollution,

Data sources for air quality Indicators Country Coverage Database/Source PM 2. 5 air pollution, satellite CIESIN, 2015 PM 2. 5 air pollution, all and dust/salt-removed van Donkelaar et al. , 2016 PM 2. 5 air pollution, emissions PM 10 air pollution Black Carbon NO x Mercury Global ECCAD

Data sources for water resources Indicators Area of district's shoreline by low, medium, high

Data sources for water resources Indicators Area of district's shoreline by low, medium, high & very high threat Ocean Health Index/Cumulative Impact Score, fertilization, pesticides, pollution, night lights, fishing, sea surface temperature, UV, ocean acidification, sea level rise, ocean shipping, invasive species, ocean pollution pressure, oil rigs Climate Change Sea Level Trend (SLT) Freshwater withdrawal, irrigation, precipitation, runoff, etc. Country Coverage Source 70 countries Reefs at Risk (REEF) database, World Resources Institute (WRI), 2011 Degradation of Marine Ecosystems (COAST), Halpern et al (2015) Global Nicholls and Cazenave Aqueduct Database, World Resources Institute (WRI)