ENSO El Nio Southern Oscillation Drivers of ENSO

ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation Drivers of ENSO variability By MSc. Per Strandberg

Current understanding of ENSO by the climate community • Dynamic Models : Understanding Good Walker circulations, Kelvin Waves • Forecast : Bad 2 -3 months • Long range forecast impossible : Wrong • Variability driven by weather noise : Wrong • Understanding what triggers ENSO variability: They have no clue • Black Box Syndrome • The butterfly effect and chaos theory

The real drivers of ENSO And the real butterfly effect • • • Lunar Perigee Pulses Variations on solar wind Variations in Earth’s magnetic field, Ap, Kp Random weather noise 5 -10% Electromagnetic influences from the Sun 30 -25% • Lunar Perigee Pulses 60 -70%

ENSO drivers hidden deep in data Problem: In-data -> Out-data • Non linear relationship • No fix frequencies • Time delays: months to years • Linear regression, frequency analysis, dynamic, statistical models = times series ANN, Markov chain: Doesn’t work • ANN: Works

ANN applied on ENSO 1979 • • 2005 2016 Asymptotic transfer functions Hundreds of weights Input from previous and back 3 years Iterative process Red Training: Minimize variance Green Testing: Minimal variance -> Save weights Hundreds of transfer functions recursively created Blue: Recreate ENSO based on saved weights 2022

Ap-index real and forecast

Input neuron data • No ENSO data input in the neurons • The gravitational tidal anomaly vector during lunar perigee – combined Lunar and solar tidal force. • The latitude of that vector • Solar wind data. Temperature, density and speed • Earth’s magnetic field. Kp and Ap Influenced by the Sun • No Ultraviolet lights. No long range data series

Randomness and ensembles • Ensembles of 9 different setups of the neurons • 9 runs with a mean value • Random setups of neurons for each run

ENSO from 1980 to 2022

Zoomed in on 2014 to 2022

Current ENSO prediction • Didn’t miss the recent El Niño, but missed the strength • Current la Niña is now weak, but I expect it to strengthening and peek around Februari next year • Return to high ENSO value with a peek early in 2018 • ENSO high values in the coming years

Test period 2012, 14, 15

Correlations against derivation of global temperature anomaly SST 110. 2% SW temp 26. 3% ENSO 100% AMO 22. 4% LOD 68. 5% Ap Index 13. 3% SW speed 49. 5% SW density 9. 7% SOI 45. 8% GCR <0 Kp Index 27. 4% PDO <0

Tidal forcing of ENSO • I looked at tidal forcing at New Moon, Full Moon and Lunar Perigee. • I got good correlations with tidal forcing at Lunar Perigee. • I got best correlation against ENSO derivation in Lunar-solar tidal forcing during Perigee

Moon’s elliptical orbit The elliptical orbit of the Moon, 8, 8 year cyclicity

Lunar Node 18. 6 year periosity

Tidal force vector • Each time Lunar Perigee happens, ENSO gets a pulse which size and direction is dependent on the size of tidal forcing and its latitude • Lunar Perigee is correlated to the derivate value of ENSO (∆ENSO), while changes in solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field are correlated directly to the value of ENSO • The Moon travels over 14 degrees each day during Perigee. • Lunar Perigee Pulse changes appear chaotic in strength and angle from one pulse to the next

Percent variability • The difference in the Lunar gravitational pull during high tide between Apogee and Perigee is about 60% • During Lunar Perigee the impact from the Sun add an additional variability of about 30% to the gravitational pull

Pacific Ocean Currents

Kelvin Waves

Kelvin Waves and MJO • Perigee happens every 27. 5 day • Kelvin Waves are generated in multiples of 27. 5 days • MJO area of enhanced convections moves counter clockwise in the tropics. Makes an orbit in 30 to 60 days • When ENSO is positive and MJO is positive in the Kelvin Wave generation area (western pacific), Kelvin Waves are generated during westerly wind bursts

Kelvin Waves • Kelvin Wave creates a tongue of warm water which moves east under the surface along the equator • This water may resurface near South America • This water may resurface west of the Galapagos • This water may dissipate and never reach the surface • MJO variation is probably driven by the same forces that is driving ENSO