ENSEMBLES GMES ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 1 The ENSEMBLES

ENSEMBLES GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 1

The ENSEMBLES Project § Began 4 years ago, will end in December 2009 § Supported by € 15 M of European Commission funding, coordinated by Met Office Hadley Centre § 67 partners from across EU, Switzerland, Australia, US we welcome requests from new groups to participate (unfunded) § Collaborates with other international projects § Brings together a wide range of climate change-related research communities GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Who, where, when Page 2

Output / products: § Multi-model RCM projections for Europe at 25 km § Significant contribution to IPCC AR 4 § Investigating probabilistic methods for “s 2 d 2 c” timescales for range of models to explore impacts § Earth system model simulations, will use a mitigation emissions scenario developed within ENSEMBLES § Providing information relevant to IPCC planning § Web-based statistical tools for finer scale information § Daily gridded dataset for Europe, + uncertainty estimates GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 3

Project output 2004 -2007 § 150 publications § 20 book contributions § Approx 500 conference presentations These numbers do not include the planned project output (conferences, workshops etc) GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 4

ENSEMBLES Strategic Objectives Project Goal: Overall goal is to maintain and extend European preeminence in the provision of policy relevant information on climate and climate change and its interactions with society § Develop an ensemble prediction system based on global and regional climate models, validated against observations and analyses, to work towards a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales § Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System § Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, forestry, health, energy, water resources, insurance We are aiming to increase availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change How GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 5

Comparison of calculated storm loss based on ERA-40 with insurance data for Germany. Correlations between calculated loss and insurance date rate between 0. 85 -0. 9 GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 6

Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones North Atlantic Eastern North Pacific Western North Pacific South Pacific F. Vitart (ECMWF) GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 7

Seasonal crop forecast using an ensemble crop yield model 63 ensemble members Model average 713 kg ha-1 Observed 775 kg ha-1 Multi-model ensemble for predicting seasonal groundnut yield in Gujarat, India, 1998, from Challinor et al. (2005). GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 8

ENSEMBLES mitigation emissions scenario New emissions scenario developed § IPCC SRES A 1 B baseline, stabilise towards 450 ppmv CO 2 eq § provides information towards EU goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels § Uses proposed IPCC “AR 5” design § Earth system models will be driven by GHG concentrations, rather than emissions. Carbon fluxes give implied emissions § Will inform details of AR 5 design and how to scientifically exploit the runs GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 9

T 2 m response E 1 scenario GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Taken from E. Roeckner, RT 2 A presentation ENSEMBLES GA 2008, Santander, Spain Page 10

Projected temperature extremes Observations, 1864 -2003 GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 11

Precipitation changes to 2090 -2099 GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 12

Change in mean precipitation (%) ECHAM HIRHAM July August September GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 13

Changes in precipitation frequency (%) Mean GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 > 99% percentile July-August-September Page 14

Projected change in summer-average precipitation over Europe - an ensemble of model simulations. -15 0 15 % change in 2050 s GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 15

Response surface modelling of projected risk of climate change impact GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 16

Likelihood of low water levels in Lake Mälaren, Sweden (perturbed physics exp. ) Use of a response surface Approach – regional scale GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 17

Risk probability of low crop productivity - Durum wheat, perturbed physics experiment * * Delta Risk was calculated as differences between the percentage of yields that do not exceed yield threshold (20 percentile) in present and A 1 b scenarios GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 18

Projections of bark beetle infestation in northern European forests GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Page 19

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