Energy Systems Analysis Determinants 3 Environment Energy Systems

Energy Systems Analysis Determinants 3: Environment Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

A Taxonomy of Environmental Problems (after WB, 1992): xxxxxxxxxxx Poverty Industrialization Affluence Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

A Word of Caution • Cross-sectional data (comparing different countries) only first step • Longitudinal analyses needed too (track changes across countries and in time). • Income is surrogate indicator and not a causality driver! • Elasticity of impacts and peaks: -- pollutant dependent -- exposure dependent -- time dependent (“leap-frogging”) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

2 Environmental Kuznets Curves for Particulates: Urban Concentration vs. Total Human Exposure (Source: K. Smith, 2000, WEA Chapter 3) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Problems of Energy 1: Poverty, ignorance, and lack of capacity Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

London - December 1952 Urban Air Quality and Mortality Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Particulate Concentrations and Human Exposure in 8 Environments Exposure = People x Time x Concentration Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Urban Air Quality – Standards vs. Reality ca. 1990 (WHO&UNEP, 1993) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Urban Air Quality in Megacities (WHO, 1993) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Problems of Energy 2: Industrialization, growing awareness, regionalization Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Sulfur Cycle Local, Regional, and Global Impacts * hydrogen sulfide (land) dimethyl sulfide (ocean) Stratosphere (cooling) * Air quality (health, corrosion) Dry deposition Based on Crutzen&Graedel, 1986. Energy Systems Analysis Acidification Wet deposition Arnulf Grubler

IPCC WGI AR 4 TS (2007) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

SO 2 Emissions Scenarios SRES and IS 92 a (Schlesinger et al. 2000 TFSC 65: 167 -193) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Effect of negative SO 2 forcing (right) and positive GHG forcing (left) on global mean temp change Smith et al. , 2000 TFSC 65: 195 -204 SRES lower SO 2 emissions (compared to IS 92) lead to amplified Warming! Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Excess Sulfur Deposition Above Critical Loads (high growth coal scenario A 2 ca. 2020) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Sulfur Deposition (g. S/m 2) Europe, ca. 1990 China, A 2 Projection for 2020 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

A 2 Acidification Impacts on Food Production Loss Percent losses Not assessed No damage < 10% 10 - 33% 33 - 75% > 75% Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

World – Sulfur Emissions by Region (cumulative, Mt. S) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

European Sulfur Emission Reductions (Mt. S) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

S/C Emissions Ratio vs. Affluence (Sulfur Peak) Korea: 1975 at 3, 000 $/cap Japan Energy Systems Analysis UK, GER: 1965 at 10, 000 $/cap Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Problems of Energy 3: Affluence, deep uncertainty, globalization Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration at Mauna Loa (IPCC, 1995) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Energy-related Carbon Emissions by Region Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

IPCC Projected Temperature Change in Absence of Climate Policies Uncertainty: 50 % climate (sensitivity) modeling 25% emissions (POP+GDP influence) 25% emissions (TECH influence) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Energy – Environment Strategies xxxxxxxxxxxx Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Improvements in Efficiency and Decarbonization: Diverse Paths Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Policy Trade-offs: No Single Energy Hammer for All Environmental Nails • Incremental (fast) radical (slow) • Partial (fast, cheap) 100% solutions • Add-ons (reinstating dominance of old) New systems (new tech + infra +…) • Single-purpose (carbon) multi-purpose (efficiency) • Local (100 flowers, fragmented) Global (uniform, complete coverage) • Solving one problem, BUT creating a new one Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler