ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND Dr Ron Lembke International
ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMAND Dr. Ron Lembke
International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia. gov
EIA Demand Scenarios http: //www. eia. gov/conf_pdfs/Monday/Sweetnam_eia. pdf
Hubbert’s Peak • M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),
Causality or Correlation?
Different Scenarios http: //www. eia. gov/tools/faq. cf m? id=38&t=6
The Price of energy
Gas Prices 1990 -2012 4, 5 4 3, 5 3 2, 5 2 1, 5 1 0, 5 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Data: http: //www. eia. gov/dnav/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w. htm
Price of Liquids
EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011 Death Valley, April 2012
25 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Cents / kwh NV Electricity Prices 30 1989 -2009 prices LR on 20 yrs Data R 2 = 0. 907 LR on 10 yrs Data R 2 = 0. 938 20 15 10 5 Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20 y Rsq=0. 91, 10 y Rsq=0. 94
Where does our oil come from?
US Oil Imports, US EIA Angola; 3, 8% Ecuador; 1, 9% Brazil; 2, 6% Virgin Islands; 2, 5% Iraq; 4, 0% UK; 2, 5% Kuwait; 2, 0% Canada; 24, 2% Colombia; 3, 6% Russia; 6, 0% Mexico; 12, 2% Algeria; 4, 9% Nigeria; 9, 8% Saudi Arabia; Venezuela; 10, 5% 9, 5%
Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook, 2014 Millions of Barrels 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 es ia at er St d te N Li by a us si a ig U ni Ar d ni te U R s ab Em ira te w ai t Ku q Ira n Ira a ad C an ra b i. A ud Sa Ve ne zu e ia la 0
Carbon Capture & Sequestration Porous rock formations Small scale tests Expensive – lose 30% of electricity gained � So make more electricity – It’s CARBON FREE! � There are other pollutants What if it gets out? � Natural gas stays safely underground
Solar Resources
Geothermal Resources
Wind Resources
Renewables’ Share growing
Summary Demand for energy is going to increase significantly � Growing populations � Rising standards of living Supply of energy not increasing as fast � Global oil supplies are finite � Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years � Alternative energy sources
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