Energy efficiency The big picture Brian Motherway Brian

Energy efficiency The big picture Brian Motherway @Brian. RMotherway © OECD/IEA 2018

Energy efficiency has reduced global energy use Global final energy consumption with and without efficiency improvements Global energy efficiency has improved by over 13% between 2000 and 2017. Without this the world would have used just over 12% more energy in 2017, equivalent to the energy use of the EU.

Efficiency gains since 2000 saved 4 billion tonnes of CO 2 in 2016 Avoided global greenhouse gas emissions from energy efficiency improvements Gt CO 2 -eq 40 Global emissions 35 30 25 20 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Actual emissions Without efficiency, emissions in 2016 would have been 12. 5% higher. 45% of emissions savings are from IEA countries, major emerging economies account for 47%.

Global energy intensity improvements are slowing Average annual change in energy intensity Preliminary estimates are that global energy intensity improved by 1. 7% in 2017, compared to 2. 0% improvement in 2016. Annual rates of improvement must rise to 3. 2% for a more sustainable world

Policy progress varies across countries IEA Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI), 2000 -2016 12 2016 10 8 6 4 201115 2 l ta To na hi 200010 U ni te d C m do n Ki ng Ja pa an y s te G St a d te ni U er m ce an n Fr ai k Sp ar a D en m re a Ko ad an ly Ita C st ra l ia ia Au In d o ex ic il M az Br In do ne si a 0 The IEA Efficiency Policy Progress Index reveals where policy progress is strongest and shows that most progress has been made since 2010, particularly in China.

A new strategy for energy & sustainable development Gt Global CO 2 emissions by scenario 40 New Policies Scenario 30 Sustainable Development Scenario 20 Sustainable Development Scenario 10 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 The Sustainable Development Scenario provides an integrated strategy to achieve climate goals, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access

The Sustainable Development Challenge The Sustainable Development Scenario encompasses climate, access and air pollution goals

Energy efficiency as an enabler

The world is getting hotter The need for cooling is growing – and with it demand for air conditioning.

Most homes in hot countries have not purchased their first AC Percentage of households that have AC today Share of households with AC 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Japan United States Korea Saudi Arabia China 2017 Brazil Mexico European Indonesia Union South Africa 2050 Air conditioning is highly concentrated in a small number of countries, but AC sales are rising rapidly in emerging economies, especially in Asia. India

The world faces a ‘cold crunch’ 6 United States 5 China 4 India Indonesia 3 Brazil 2 Mexico 0 20 5 45 20 0 20 4 5 20 3 0 20 3 5 20 2 0 20 2 5 20 1 0 20 1 20 0 19 9 5 Rest of world 0 0 5 Middle East 0 1 19 9 Billion units Global air conditioner stock By 2050, around 2/3 of the world’s households could have an air conditioner. China, India and Indonesia will together account for half of the total number.

Consumers are not buying the most efficient ACs Energy performance of air conditioners already available in markets today 14 12 Efficiency 10 8 6 4 2 0 Europe Japan Korea China Available equipment United States Singapore Canada India Market average The average efficiency of air conditioners sold today is less than half of what is typically available on the shelves – and one third of best available technology. Saudi Arabia

Efficient ACs can halve future energy demand Space cooling energy demand growth and savings potential TWh 7 000 Baseline Scenario 6 000 5 000 4 000 Efficient Cooling Scenario 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Our Efficient Cooling Scenario shows that effective policies can double average AC efficiency, reducing cooling electricity demand by more than all the electricity consumed by the European Union today.

More efficient ACs will help cut emissions Contribution of more efficient space cooling to reducing CO 2 emissions Mt. CO 2 2 500 Rest of world 2 000 Mexico Middle East 1 500 United States 1 000 China Indonesia 500 India 0 2016 2050 Baseline Scenario Efficient ACs Decarbonising power 2050 Efficient Cooling Scenario More efficient ACs cut CO 2 emissions from space cooling in half and combined with cleaner power sources can radically reduce overall emissions. Local air pollution is also drastically cut.

It is possible to meet cooling needs efficiently and sustainably • Energy efficiency is a key enabler of sustainable prosperity • It is the single biggest opportunity for reducing energy related emissions • The global demand for AC cooling is set to soar and, absent firm policy interventions, so will cooling-related energy demand. • The easiest, fastest and most effective action is to ensure all new ACs are very efficient. • This will halve cooling energy demand growth. If coupled with efficient buildings, growth could be kept completely flat. • There is a huge opportunity for a concerted, integrated approach to sustainable cooling

www. iea. org/cooling