Energy efficiency methodologies Existing methodologies and challenges UNFCCC

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Energy efficiency methodologies Existing methodologies and challenges UNFCCC Side-event at SB 26 Bonn, Germany,

Energy efficiency methodologies Existing methodologies and challenges UNFCCC Side-event at SB 26 Bonn, Germany, 15 May 2007

Existing methodologies • o. de • Supply side energy efficiency methodologies – ACM 0006

Existing methodologies • o. de • Supply side energy efficiency methodologies – ACM 0006 (some scenarios) – power generation with biomass residues – ACM 0007 – single cycle to combined cycle power generation – AM 0014 – cogeneration – AM 0044 – boiler rehabilitation or replacement Demand side energy efficiency methodologies – AM 0017 – steam system use efficiency in refineries – AM 0018 – steam optimization projects – AM 0020 – efficiency improvement in water delivery system – AM 0038 – Efficiency improvement in electrical arc furnace – AM 0046 – Use of efficient lamps in households

Methodological challenges (1) o. de • Distinguishing the signal from the noise – Effect

Methodological challenges (1) o. de • Distinguishing the signal from the noise – Effect of the CDM project (signal) – other factors that affect energy efficiency (noise), such as: • Energy prices • O&M practices • Load variations • Measurement accuracy – Example: Small efficiency improvements (e. g. 1%) – Risk: Measured ER have no relation to CDM project

Methodological challenges (2) • • o. de • Remaining lifetime of the existing equipment

Methodological challenges (2) • • o. de • Remaining lifetime of the existing equipment – Existing equipment would be replaced at the end of its technical lifetime – ER only to be accounted until the end of lifetime Changes in BAU energy efficiency over time – Example: Efficient lighting in households (free-riding) – Example: Retrofit of a power plant during the crediting period – Uncertainty may be large – Difficult to determine Rebound effects

Methodological challenges (3) o. de • Capacity increases: What is the appropriate baseline?

Methodological challenges (3) o. de • Capacity increases: What is the appropriate baseline?

o. de How are these challenges addressed in existing methodologies? • Black-box approach: Using

o. de How are these challenges addressed in existing methodologies? • Black-box approach: Using intensity-based indicators – Example: k. Wh electricity per m³ pumped (AM 0020) • Representative sampling (e. g. AM 0046) – Reduction of transaction costs – Ensure statistical significance – Address statistical uncertainty • Dynamic baselines – Monitoring a control group (AM 0046) – Extrapolating historical trends – Ex-post measurement of baseline after plant changes (NM 0171)

Recommendations o. de • Use sampling where possible – In some cases, monitoring 1%

Recommendations o. de • Use sampling where possible – In some cases, monitoring 1% of the appliances is statistically sufficient • Provide a clear baseline scenario selection procedure in case of projects increasing capacity • Address efficiency improvements in the baseline / free-riders – Use control groups where possible and economically feasible • Assess significance of rebound effects

Thank you for your attention! o. de Lambert Schneider Öko-Institut email: l. schneider@oeko. de

Thank you for your attention! o. de Lambert Schneider Öko-Institut email: l. schneider@oeko. de