Employment Outlook 2010 20 Employment Projections Program Presented

Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics March 16, 2012

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Presenters: § Dixie Sommers § James Franklin Bureau of Labor Statistics § Alexandra Hall State of Colorado Moderator: § Samuel Wright Employment and Training Administration Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 8

Introduction of Presenters Dixie Sommers Assistant Commissioner for Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections Bureau of Labor Statistics James Franklin Chief, Division of Industry Employment Projections Bureau of Labor Statistics Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information State of Colorado Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 9

Overview § Background information § Population and labor force § Economic and Industry growth § Occupational growth § National Projections is a key input for State Projections Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 10

Employment Projections Background § 10 -year projections made every 2 years § 2010 -20 projections cover 700 occupations and 300 industries § Projections are used to produce the Occupational Outlook Handbook—which has been published since 1949 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 11

Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections Products § Occupational Outlook Handbook § Occupational Outlook Quarterly § Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation § Technical materials— replacement rates, education and training categories, and more Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 12

Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Population and Labor Force Growth Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 13

Population and Labor Force 2000 2010 Projected 2020 Population Data Source: U. S. Census Bureau Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 14

Population Growth Rate Annual rates of change Population Data Source: U. S. Census Bureau Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 15

Labor Force Participation Rates Percent Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 16

Labor Force Share by Age Group Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 17

Labor Force Share by Race Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 18

Labor Force Share by Ethnicity Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 19

Labor Force Growth by Race and Ethnicity Change in millions, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 20

Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Economic and Industry Growth Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 21

Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Annual rate of change Historic Data Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 22

Nominal GDP by Component Percent of GDP Historic Data Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 23

Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 24

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment In millions NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to 2020. The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 25

Employment and Output: 2010 Percent distribution Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 26

Employment by Industry Sector: 2010 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 27

Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010 -20 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1. 4% Service providing Goods producing Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 28

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010 -20 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 29

Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Occupational Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 30

Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2010 Thousands of jobs Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Continued on next slide) 31

Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2010 Thousands of jobs Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Continued) 32

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Average, all occupations = 14. 3% (Continued on next slide) 33 33

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected 2010 -20 (Continued) Average, all occupations = 14. 3% Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 34

Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Continued on next slide) 35

Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2010 -20 (Continued) Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 36

Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Declined 2006 -10 Percent of 2006 employment NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to 2020. The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 37

Employment Trends for Occupational Groups with Little Employment Change 2006 -10 Percent of 2006 employment NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to 2020. The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 38

Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Increased 2006 -10 Percent of 2006 employment NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to 2020. The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 39

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Continued on next slide) 40

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group (Continued) Thousands of job openings, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 41

Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change, projected 2010 -20 Median annual wages, May 2010 $19, 640 $20, 560 $81, 540 $27, 780 $25, 760 $29, 710 $38, 430 $49, 690 $26, 740 $45, 260 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 42

Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2010 -20 Median annual wages, May 2010 $64, 690 $20, 670 $20, 560 $19, 640 $26, 610 $17, 950 $30, 460 $37, 770 $23, 460 $45, 690 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 43

Occupations with the Most Job Openings Thousands of job openings, projected 2010 -20 Median annual Wages, May 2010 $20, 670 $18, 500 $18, 330 $64, 690 $17, 950 $26, 610 $23, 460 $30, 460 $20, 560 $22, 210 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 44

Education and Training Classification § New classification system introduced with 201020 projections § Consists of three categories of information for each occupation: − Typical education needed for entry − Work experience in a related occupation − Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 45

Employment by Typical Entrylevel Education Category: 2010 Thousands of jobs Median annual Wages, May 2010 $87, 500 $60, 240 $63, 430 $61, 590 $34, 220 $44, 350 $34, 180 $20, 070 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 46

Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category Percent change, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Average, all occupations = 14. 3% 47

Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 48

Bachelor’s Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Median annual wages, May 2010 W T N I/R $51, 660 N N $61, 690 1 -5 N $78, 160 N N $87, 790 N N $94, 180 N N $77, 740 N N $60, 570 N I/R $51, 960 N N $69, 160 N I/R $53, 230 Thousands of jobs, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 49

High School Diploma Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Median annual wages, May 2010 W T N S $26, 610 N S $30, 460 1 -5 S $37, 770 N S $19, 300 N M $34, 030 N S $25, 240 N M $52, 440 N M $30, 530 1 -5 N $47, 460 N A $39, 530 Thousands of jobs, projected 2010 -20 Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 50

Contact Information Dixie Sommers James Franklin Employment Projections Program www. bls. gov/emp 202 -691 -5700 ep-info@bls. gov Employment Outlook: 2010 -20 Employment Projections Program Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 51

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