Emerging Technology IST 402 MIS 489 The Mindset
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Emerging Technology IST 402 MIS 489
The Mindset List 2017 • Beloit College Mindset List for 2017
What are Emerging Technologies? Emerging technologies are those where: 1. The knowledge base is expanding 2. The application to existing markets is undergoing innovation 3. New markets are being tapped or created Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Day and Schoemaker, Wiley
Contrasting Emerging vs. Established Technology Established Emerging Science-based & Application Established Uncertain Architecture or Standards Evolutionary Emergent Function & Benefits Evolutionary Unknown Value Chain Established Formative Regulation / Standards Established Emergent Technology Infrastructure Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Day and Schoemaker, Wiley
Contrasting Emerging vs. Established Technology Established Emerging Usage patterns/behavior Well-defined Formative Market knowledge Thorough Speculative Structure Established Embryonic Rivals Well-known New players Rules of the game Known Emergent Market/Customers Industry Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Day and Schoemaker, Wiley
Technology Adoption • AM Radio – 1920’s • B&W TV – 1940’s • Color TV – 1950’s • FM Radio – 1960’s • Cable TV – 1970’s • 1980’s • CD Players • PC’s • Cell Phone • 1990’s o Once firms could passively watch & let others take development risks o Now have winner-take-all markets • Pager • Internet • Satellite TV
Creative Destruction • Mechanical calculator -> Electronic Calculator • Telegraph -> overnight delivery -> fax -> email • Radio -> TV -> Cable -> Internet
Coping with Uncertainty caused by ET • “Epistemic risk” – the risk of not knowing what one does not know, Jurgen Habermas • Fail to analyze the situation • Develop a strategy • Continue to learn • About various components • Acknowledge multiple futures
Decisions Under Uncertainty Which State of Nature Will Prevail? Decision Posture Aggressive Stance (Commitment and Option Creating) Passive Stance (Wait and See) Technology Succeeds Technology Fails* Microsoft & PCs 3 M & Post-It notes Sony & Walkman RCA & videodisk Citicorp and home banking Encyclopedia Britannica & CD roms Kodak & copier products Monsanto & prefab plastic homes Utilities & nuclear power *Failure could occur because (1) technology didn’t work or couldn’t scale , (2) A better technology superseded it, or (3) it was ahead of its time.
References • Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Day and Schoemaker, Wiley, 2000.
