Electrification with Biofuels strategy for higher energy efficiency

Electrification with Biofuels: strategy for higher energy efficiency & lower GHG emissions – the Brazilian experience Plinio Nastari, Ph. D President of DATAGRO Civil Society Representative in Brazil’s CNPE – National Council on Energy Policy ‘MOVE’: A Global Mobility Summit 2018 September 7 -8, 2018 Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi, India

Main World Consumers of Fuels used in Transport (2014) Million tonnes Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC) are amongst 6 largest Consumers of Fuels used in Transport Source: IEA, 2016 2

GHG Emissions in CO 2 eq in Generation & Use of Energy by Sector (2014) World Source: IEA, 2016 3

The Option of Technological Pathway for Fuel & Motorization will depend on the method used to measure Energy Efficiency & Environmental Impact Well-to-Wheel (Wt. W) or Life-Cycle Assessment or Tank-to-Wheel (Tt. W) 4

Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under Wt. W Hybrid Ethanol Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017. 5 Hybrid Fossil

Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under Wt. W Hybrid Ethanol 6 Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017 Hybrid Fossil

Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under Wt. W Hybrid Ethanol Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017 7 Hybrid Fossil

Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under Wt. W Hybrid Ethanol Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017 8 Hybrid Fossil

Batteries: energy density < 1, 000 Wh/kg Source: Van Noorden , “A Better Battery”, 2 8 | N AT U R E | VO L 5 0 7 | 6 M A R C H 2 0 1 4 in Brito, BBEST, 2017. 9

Batteries: energy density & specific energy Source: Brito, BBEST, 2017, FAPESP. 10

Energy Density & Specific Energy: in Liquid Fuels are much higher than in Batteries 10000 Emergy Density (Wh/liter) 9000 Gasoline 8000 7000 6000 Ethanol 5000 4000 3000 2000 Batteries 1000 0 0 11 2000 4000 Source: Brito, BBEST, 2017, FAPESP. 6000 8000 Specific Energy (Wh/kg) 10000 12000 14000

Electric Battery Cars are really clean? 12

2 -Degree Scenario: Transport Energy by Fuel 2010 -2075 • Even with aggressive reductions in travel growth, shifts to mass transport modes, strong efficiency improvements, and deep market penetration by vehicles running on electricity and hydrogen, there remains a large demand for dense liquid fuels in 2050 (80% of transportation fuel) and even in 2075 (50%). Source: Fulton et al. , Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. 9: 476– 483 (2015); doi: 10. 1002/bbb. 13

Automotive Technology • Electrification with biofuels – “With the current ethanol distribution infrastructure, Brazil has already solved the Hydrogen distribution hurdle” (Nissan, June 2016). – Electrification with ethanol does not require use of rare metals. – Distribution of ethanol, as a sole or blended fuel in gasoline, is equivalent to a network of Hydrogen already in place. 14

Automotive Technology • Electrification with Ethanol – Is an electric car using ethanol, without the problems faced by Electric Battery Vehicle, taking advantage of the high content of Hydrogen in ethanol. 15

Diversification towards Ethanol enabled successful development of Brazil´s Sugarcane Industry 2018/19 e 37. 5% 23. 8% 38. 7% Source: DATAGRO. Anhydrous ethanol is blended in gasoline at 27% v/v (E 27), and hydrous ethanol (E 100) is used by Flex-fuel fleet comprising >75% of light vehicle fleet (2017), that can use any proportion of E 27 & E 100. 16

Substitution of Gasoline by Ethanol in Selected Countries (2017) During first 7 months (Jan-Jul) of 2018, it was 41. 7% in Brazil 17 Source: DATAGRO for Brazil, and various sources for other countries.

Relevance of the distribution system • Brazil is using its liquid fuel infrastructure to distribute: – Hydrous Ethanol (E 100) used as sole fuel: in >42, 000 retailing stations in a continental-size country; – Anhydrous Ethanol blended at 27% v/v in all gasoline sold in the country (E 27) – Brazil has, for a long time already, been using the USA automakers’ target of “mid-level blends”, – Biodiesel blended in all fossil-based diesel (B 10) since March/18. • Biofuel is high-density SOLAR ENERGY captured, stored and distributed in an efficient, economical & safe manner. 18

Relevance of the distribution system • Brazil is using its liquid fuel infrastructure to distribute: – Hydrous Ethanol (E 100) used as sole fuel: in >42, 000 retailing stations in a continental-size country; – Anhydrous Ethanol blended at 27% v/v in all gasoline sold in the country (E 27) – Brazil has, for a long time already, been using the USA automakers’ target of “mid-level blends”, – Biodiesel blended in all fossil-based diesel (B 10) since March/18. • Biofuel is high-density HYDROGEN captured, stored and distributed in an efficient, economical & safe manner. 19

Brazil´s New National Biofuels Plan (Renova. Bio), enacted into Law in December 2017, is a relevant strategy to reinforce policy towards Biofuels and the achievement of the country´s commitments before the Climate Agreement 20

Objective: • Stimulate & reward investments in efficiency / competitiveness, leading to lower costs & lower prices to consumers, and sustainable bioenergy expansion. 21

Simultaneously addresses Public Policy objectives in the areas of • • • Energy Environment Agriculture & Rural Development Industrial Policy in Energy & Auto-industry Social & Economic Development Economic reform 22

Is based on the belief that market forces should drive the choice for the most efficient option towards increased energy-environmental efficiency in fuel production & use. 23

Renova. Bio – a model for expansion of clean energy solution in mobility

COP 23 -Fiji in Bonn Declaration of Vision, by 19 Nations representing over 50% of world population, 37% of world GDP + IEA + IRENA Bonn, November 16, 2017 Target for 2030 (to achieve the 2 -Degree Scenario) • % of Bioenergy in world energy demand must double. • % of sustainable low carbon Biofuels in transport fuels, including sea and air transport, must triple. Scaling up the bioeconomy is possible, given smart agricultural practices, better use of rural and urban waste, and proper policies. 25

Electrification with Ethanol • Takes advantage of high energy density of ethanol • Avoids the trap of fossil-derived electricity (importance of considering Wt. W concept) • Electrification with Ethanol has the lowest GHG emission • Uses existing liquid fuel distribution infrastructure • Avoids concerns over: – Availability and sourcing of lithium-ion and cobalt – Life-span of batteries – Discart of batteries and the pollution it generates • Is the option that promotes development (jobs and income) and the simultaneous integration of energy, agricultural, industrial & environmental public policy objectives. 26

Electrification with Ethanol • For India, and many other countries, ethanol can be a strategic option given current challenges & opportunities. • India´s Sugar industry: – >53 million sugarcane farmers – minimum price support policy is generating surplus sugarcane production. – 2018/19 Sugar Production is projected at 35. 5 mmt white value, for a Consumption of 25. 2 mmt wv => surplus cane & sugar. – Domestic sugar price is maintained higher than world price, and mills are facing difficulties to pay farmers. – Sugar stocks are rising fast, bringing instability to farm system. – Great opportunity to convert excess sugar production into ethanol. 27

Electrification with Ethanol • India´s Electricity generation & oil imports: – 75. 1% of all electricity in India is generated from coal; – Oil imports are over 4. 3 million bpd in 2018, at a high cost to society (import cost over US$ 100 billion/year), given relative value of Indian Rupee vs US dollar, and the price of oil. 28

Ethanol enables progressive positive evolution in motorization, using current infrastructure Otimization of current I. C. E. Hybrids using Ethanol Electrification using Ethanol & Biomethane 29

We are moving towards the Age of Hydrogen Most probably, not Hydrogen captured and stored in high-pressure, costly and risky Titanium tanks, but Hydrogen represented by high-density, low carbon footprint, sustainably produced Advanced Biofuels such as Ethanol, Biogas & Biomethane