Electric Vehicles Electric vehicles EVs are powered by

Electric Vehicles Electric vehicles (EVs) are powered by electric batteries instead of conventional fuels such as gasoline and diesel. The emissions profile of these vehicles is lower, however the exact emissions vary depending on the generation mix providing the electricity. In this Drawdown GA solution, we assess the CO 2 reduction potential of EVs in the light duty vehicle category. However, electrification is an option that can provide CO 2 benefits in additional vehicle segments including MD/HD truck, public transit, and aviation groundworks. #

Electric Vehicles CO 2 emissions from Transportation Ga (MMT/yr) EVs can contribute additional CO 2 reductions beyond a favorable baseline trend by 2030 Baseline = Assumes business as usual for fuel economy and CO 2 reductions, driven by new vehicle technologies and Federal CAFÉ regulations 45. 0 40. 0 35. 0 Achievable Potential =Approximately 310, 000 electric vehicles in the Georgia Light Duty Vehicle Fleet (i. e. , about 4% of the total fleet), and accounting for 15% of new LDV sales in 2030 30. 0 Baseline Achievable Potential Technical Potential 25. 0 20. 0 15. 0 10. 0 CO 2 Emissions (MMT/y) 2020 2025 2030 41. 4 38. 9 36. 3 41. 4 38. 8 34. 8 41. 4 38. 1 34. 0 5. 0 0. 0 2015 2017 2019 Baseline 2021 2023 Achievable 2025 2027 Technical 1 Mt. CO 2 e solution in 2030 = an additional 250, 000 gasoline cars are replaced with electric vehicles. 2029 2031 Technical Potential = Approximately 680, 000 EVs in the Georgia LDV fleet (9% of the total fleet), and 35% of new LDV sales by 2030. Contributing 2. 3 MMT/yr in CO 2 reductions compared to baseline. +Improved Air Quality +Approaching TCO price parity +Lower operating & maintenance costs -Affordability on capital cost basis

Despite an aggressive baseline, grid CO 2 intensity reductions propel per vehicle EV contributions Y R A 250 GASOLINE & N Conventional vehicles improve at 1. 5% y/y through 2025 P DIESEL HYBRID EV 100 50 PROJECTION SCENARIOS 0 2011 2013 2015 2017 Gasoline 2019 Diesel 2021 Hybrid 2023 1, 000 units 420, 000 units 310, 000 units “Achievable 2030” 2025 2027 ADOPTION RATE BENEFIT 6, 000 units 150 TECHNICAL BENEFIT CO 2 eq Intensity (g. CO 2/km) 200 I M LI E R EVs approach a relative CO 2 intensity of 50% compared to conventional cars But, adoption rate will dictate overall impact from this solution 2029 EV R. Simmons, Strategic Energy Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2020

Summary of CO 2 trends for EVs and the Grid, 2017 -2030 Passenger Truck CO 2 Intensity Trends 450 400 CO 2 Intensity (g. CO 2/mi) 450 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 2017 2020 ICE Car 2025 2030 2017 EV Car 2020 ICE Truck 2025 2030 EV Truck Grid CO 2 Intensity Trends Marginal Resource vs. Average Mix CO 2 Intensit (g. CO 2/k. Wh) CO 2 Intensity (g. CO 2/mi) Passenger Car CO 2 Intensity Trends 2015 E R P 2020 Grid-Avg 2025 Grid-Marginal N I M LI 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Y R A 2030 R. Simmons, Strategic Energy Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2020

A closer look at interactions between EVs and the future Ga Grid PV Additions Nuclear Additions For EV charging, 2018 vs. 2023 Nuclear Additions: Enables low CO 2 during off-peak recharging Solar Additions: Enables lower CO 2 for recharging during early afternoon recharging Costs can generally be controlled since system has adequate capacity Energy Policy and Innovation Center, R. Simmons, M. Philpot, SEI

A closer look at interactions between EVs and the future Ga Grid Y R INA OFF-PEAK PR M I L E MEF (Avg) ≈ 176 kg. CO 2/MWh Marginal Resource (NGCC) ≈ 400 kg. CO 2/MWh ON-PEAK MEF (Avg) ≈ 226 kg/MWh Marginal Resource (Mix) ≈ 675 kg/MWh Energy Policy and Innovation Center, R. Simmons, SEI

EV costs approach price parity by 2030 on TCO basis, with qualifiers New EV sticker prices are currently more than similar conventional cars. Annualized Cost or Benefit ($) 2500 2000 Subsidies currently offset most of this differential. In the next decade, price parity is anticipated on a total cost of ownership basis. 1500 1000 500 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 -500 annualized cost delta annualized benefit delta net annualized costs 2030 However, a few significant unknowns remain: • Continued decline in battery prices • Cost of conventional fuel • Cost of charging equipment • Federal/State EV tax credits • Interest rates and financing costs • Carbon policy • CAFE regulations

EVs can contribute to modest favorable gains in jobs EVs generally require fewer parts than conventional cars. But have additional requirements for external infrastructure. Lithium Ion batteries and energy storage in general is a growing industry, with major implications on jobs and natural resources. While attention must be paid to lifecycle sustainability, a simplified analysis suggests EVs can have a positive net impact on jobs, in particular for the SE automotive sector.

Stakeholder Analysis of Electric Vehicles Georgia PSC, Georgia Environmental Finance Authority, Economic Development Authorities and EPA Environmental nonprofits, energyefficiency think tanks/clean energy advocates Rewards Environmental and Clean Energy NGOs Electric Utilities & Charging Providers Battery Suppliers, Power Electronics Suppliers Selected Auto OEMs Potential Champions Air quality advocates Government Agencies Customers Low-Moderate Income Households Oil Companies & Gasoline Retailers Engine Suppliers Risks

Electric Vehicle Solution Interactions Electric Vehicles & Transportation Electrification of LDVs can have a synergistic effect on other transit modes, including buses, MD/HD trucks, and alternative mobility. Electric Vehicles + Grid Managed EV charging will permit utilization of generation assets during off-peak periods, and incentivize low cost charging. Solar Addition of solar may help reduce the CO 2 intensity in late afternoon Nuclear Addition of nuclear capacity bumps coal off the margin, resulting in lower marginal CO 2 during all times of the day

Electric Vehicles A solution for Georgia that: § Reduces carbon emissions § Is synergistic with a cleaner grid § Results in air quality benefits § Helps diversify transportation energy resources § Can generate new jobs #

Corresponding author: Dr. Richard A. Simmons, PE Director, Energy, Policy, and Innovation Center, Strategic Energy Institute Instructor, Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology 495 Tech Way NW Atlanta, GA 30332 -0362