Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift Assessment of the implications

Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift Assessment of the implications for Great Britain Alex Aristotelous – Louise Comrie – Carlos Cortes – Josh Findlay – Guru Shete

Problem Aims & Intended Description Outputs Government Interventions • Establishing targets & goals • i. e. 2040 ICE ban • • Problem Lack of research & evidence Implications unknown 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Aims & Objectives Identify the implications and quantify Technical Economic Intended Outputs Nitrogen Dioxide in Glasgow Hope St (Kerbside) Practical Develop different EV scenarios Interactive tool Assessment of overall sustainability 01: 00: 00 05: 00: 00 09: 00: 00 13: 00: 00 17: 00: 00 21: 00: 00 01: 00: 00 05: 00: 00 09: 00: 00 13: 00: 00 17: 00: 00 21: 00: 00 01: 00 05: 00 09: 00 13: 00 17: 00 21: 00: 00 05: 00 09: 00 13: 00 NO 2 concentration (μg/m 3) Government Problem What ‘fuels’ the • Interventions Lack of Technical EV transition? • research Establishing & • Cleaner cities Economic evidence targets & goals • Reduce oil • Implications i. e. 2040 ICE dependency unknown ban Practical Overall EV Transition Sustainable Assessment Nitrogen Dioxide 17/01/2022 Time (hr) Help the public in understanding the effects of an EV transition EU Standards on NO 2 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 2

Presentation Structure Business as Usual Scenario TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS Electricity Demand OVERALL Grid Infrastructure Conservative ELECTRIC VEHICLE SCENARIOS Scenario Most Aggressive Scenario ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS SUSTAINABILITY Lithium Resources ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION ASSESSMENT Fuel Tax Revenue Lost Public Charging Infrastructure Assessment of sustainability OVERALL ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION ASSESSMENT 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 3

Scenario Matrix EV Projections Three scenarios to present today Number of Cars Projections* Business as usual Dep. Of Transport Intermediate Business as Usual Scenario High EVs Most Aggressive Scenario Conservative Scenario *We have modelled three other scenarios with National Grid's projection of total cars to 25 million 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 4

Presentation Structure ELECTRIC VEHICLE SCENARIOS Business as Usual Scenario 17/01/2022 Conservative Scenario Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift Most Aggressive Scenario 5

Business as Usual Scenario Car Projections Total Cars 2050: 44. 5 million EV 2050: 1. 4 million EV 2016: 33, 860 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 6

Presentation Structure ELECTRIC VEHICLE SCENARIOS Business as Usual Scenario TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS Electricity Demand Grid Infrastructure Charging Infrastructure 17/01/2022 Conservative Scenario Most Aggressive Scenario What is the Conservative Scenario? Modelling techniques for the Technical Implications Results of these models for the Conservative Scenario Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 7

Conservative Scenario Car Projections Total Cars 2050: 37. 2 million Hybrids* 2050: 31. 9 million EV 2050: 4. 3 million EV 2016: 33, 860 *Hybrids include both plug-in and non-plug-in 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 8

Electrical Demand 2127. 51 k. Wh/EV* Business as Usual EV 2050: 1. 4 Conservative EV 2050: 4. 3 million 2. 98 TWh EV's Annual Electrical Demand 0. 98% *Annual Distance Covered/EV = 12713 km 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift million 9. 15 TWh 3. 01% 9

Grid Infrastructure Low Voltage Limitations • Thermal violation – demand growth • Voltage violation – embedded generation growth LV Network LV Network 230 V | 11 k. V | 33 k. V MV Network 230 V | 11 k. V Distribution Network 230 V | 11 k. V HV Network Grid 230 V | 11 k. V Supply Point LV Network 11 k. V | 33 k. V 230 V | 11 k. V | 230 V LV Network 33 k. V | 11 k. V MV Network Distribution Network MV Network 11 k. V | 33 k. V 11 k. V | 230 V LV Network 33 k. V | 11 k. V MV Network *132 k. V 17/01/2022 230 V | 11 k. V LV Transmission Network* 33 k. V | 132 k. V LV Network MV Network 230 V | 11 k. V LV Network networks in Scotland are managed by the System Operator and included in the transmission network Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 10

Public Charging Infrastructure Conservative Aggressive Scenario Business as Usual = 241, 000 Public Charging Points 1: 5 Ability to domestically charge? PUBLIC CHARGING CURRENT RATIO Conservative Is it profitable? = 740, 000 1: 5 Public Charging Points By 2040 ratio is 1: 4 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 11

Presentation Structure ELECTRIC VEHICLE SCENARIOS Business as Usual Scenario Conservative Scenario TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS What is the Aggressive Scenario? Results of the Technical Implications for the Aggressive Scenario Electricity Demand Grid Infrastructure Impacts of these Results Charging Infrastructure 17/01/2022 Most Aggressive Scenario Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 12

Aggressive Scenario Upper Penetration Rate - 100% of new sales EV by 2040 - 100%(approx. ) of market EV by 2050 Department for Transport Car Projection - 44. 5 Million Cars in 2050 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 13

16 22016 01 7 22017 01 8 22018 01 9 22019 02 0 22020 02 1 22021 02 2 22022 02 3 22023 02 4 22024 02 5 22025 02 6 22026 02 7 22027 02 8 22028 02 9 22029 03 0 22030 03 1 22031 03 2 22032 03 3 22033 03 4 22034 03 5 22035 03 6 22036 03 7 22037 03 8 22038 03 9 22039 04 0 22040 04 1 22041 04 2 22042 04 3 22043 04 4 22044 04 5 22045 04 6 22046 04 7 22047 04 8 22048 04 9 22049 05 0 2050 20 Numberof of. Cars(Millions) Number Aggressive Scenario Car Projections Aggressive Scenario 45 45 40 40 35 35 10 10 EV 2050: 43. 2 Million 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 EV 2016: 33, 860 55 -- Year Total Number of Cars 17/01/2022 Total. Number of. Cars Number Total Number of EV of of ICE Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 14

Electricity Demand In 2050 92. 01 TWh extra electricity required Annual consumption of electricity in UK in 2016 was 304 TWh 26% 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 15

Electricity Demand 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 16

Electricity Demand 20% EVs 8. 3 Million EVs 7 k. W Chargers Additional 60 GW Current 74 GW 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 17

Grid Infrastructure Upgrade Required due to Current Grid exceeding limitations Low Voltage Network - 408, 000 km - <1 k. V 32% 130, 000 km Total Distribution Networks -Total 800, 000 km Distribution Network - <132 k. V* Impacts of LV upgrade £ 4. 4 High and Extra High Voltage Networks and Extra High Voltage --High 25, 000 km Cost Networks - >132 k. V Billion** - Time of Upgrade *132 k. V networks in Scotland managed by System Operator and included in transmission network ** Price reflects cost for upgrade of cables and transformers but not labour and maintenance 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 18

Public Charging Infrastructure 241, 000 8, 649, 000 Business as Usual: Publicly accessible charging points Publicly accessible charging Impacts 916 Cost of Infrastructure Management times more Location 100 km 2 of parking space Speed Grid Time to Build Infrastructure 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 19

Economic Implications SCENARIOS THE BUSINESS AS USUAL CONSERVATIVE MOST AGGRESSIVE 17/01/2022 £ FUEL TAX REVENUE LOST Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 20

Fuel Tax Revenue Lost PETROL How could the UK Petrol and Diesel 2050 UK Number of Cars 2016 Fuel tax revenue Goverment Cars Consumption Business. Annual as Conservative Most Aggressive 33, 000 this lost £ 664 recover Fuel tax revenue loss Scenario Usual. Fuel Scenario EVs revenue? Change in Charging DIESEL UK Electricity 14 p/k. Wh & £ 30 Million Prices £ 732 Electricity Price Fuel tax revenue £ 1 Billion Per ICE EVCar £ 3 Billion in 2017 £ 32 £ 800 How this would change BILLION! The electricity bill? £ 72 Fuel Breakdown Costs Standing charge Unit price 0, 9 cost per year UK Government Tax Revenue 0, 8 Changes in 400, 7 0, 6 Electricity Charging Price 0, 5 30 0, 4 0, 3 OR X 200, 2 X 0, 1 10 0 33, 000 EVs 1 49 p/k. Wh 1, 1 1, 2 1, 3 Standing charge 0 price Unit £/L cost per year Standard Duty 2030 2015 2020 2025 2035 VAT 43 million Electric Vehicle EVs Tax Component £ Billion £ Loss 3. 5 10 £ 730 35 pence 1, 4 1, 5 per 2040 k. Wh 2045 17/01/2022 EV Paradigm. A UK Strategy 2050 21

Assessment of Sustainability SCENARIOS Lithium THE BUSINESS AS USUAL CONSERVATIVE MOST AGGRESSIVE Sustainable? 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 22

Lithium Resources 4 kg Lithium* Reserves Location RISKS Dependency New Battery on Capacity Strategic Commodities 40 k. Wh No Lithium GB 2050 Extraction in Europe Security of Supply 2050 0. 035 Lithium Consumed during EV Transition 2050 3. 2 Consumed EV Lithium USA CHINA UK Consumption equal to Global ENVIRONMENTAL Business as Conservative Lithium Recovery 0. 048 PROBLEMS Reserves Usual Scenario 7. 5 BRAZIL Scenario 0. 023 and Large 16 ZIM Mt CHILE Global Lithium Reserves No Global 1. 5 % Recycling 2 6, 000 t 17/01/2022 ARG Scale Recovery 26, 000 Map units aret in Mt Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift Most Human and Water Ecotoxicity Aggressive Scenario 2. 7 Eutrophication AUS 226, 000 t *Average value taken 23

CO 2 Tailpipe Emissions 2050 UK Car & Taxis CO 2 Business as Usual Scenario EMISSIONS IF Electricity 2015 produced with UK Car & Taxis CLEAN SOURCES > 55 % Conservative Scenario Reduction 48 Mt > 2415 % Mt Reduction Most 2 Mt Aggressive Total Domestic CO 2 Transport Emissions Scenario Total UK CO 2 Emissions 68 Mt 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 24

NOx Tailpipe Emissions 2050 UK Car & Taxis NOx Business as Usual Scenario EMISSIONS IF Electricity 2015 produced with UK Car & Taxis CLEAN SOURCES > 35 % Conservative Scenario Reduction 42 kt > 1215 kt % Reduction Most 2 kt Aggressive Total Domestic NOx Transport Emissions Scenario Total UK NOx Emissions 148 kt 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 25

Assessment of Sustainability LITHIUM RESOURCES DEPENDENCY IMPROVEMENT OF AIR QUALITY NOx EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE BENEFITS DEPEND ON GENERATION SOURCE CO 2 EMISSIONS 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 26

Overall Assessment EV Transition Lithium environmental issues Increase Air Quality Business opportunities & Boost Car Industry Meet 2050 UK Carbon Targets Social inequalities Charging access Investments in grid upgrade & new power plants Fuel Tax Revenue Lost Oil Dependency Reduction 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 27

Is this Sustainable? NOT WITHOUT… LIMITED UPGRADE GRID DISTRIBUTION NETWORK BALANCE TAX REVENUE LOST LITHIUM RECYCLING SMART CHARGING LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY GENERATION PUBLIC ADOPTION OF EVs 17/01/2022 … Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 28

Thank you for coming! 17/01/2022 Electric Vehicle Paradigm Shift 29