El impacto de la crisis econmica mundial Una

El impacto de la crisis económica mundial: Una perspectiva de género Rania Antonopoulos Quito, 26 -27 Noviembre 2009 Foro Internacional “LA CRISIS MUNDIAL Y ECUADOR: CARACTERISTICAS, CONSECUENCIAS, OPORTUNIDADES Y DIMENSIONES DE GÉNERO”; MINISTERIO DE FINANZAS, UNIFEM, CIGENERO, FLACSO AC DEMOCRACIA, ILDIS

The role of Markets revisited • Challenge: Sub-prime mortgage crisis leads to turmoil in financial markets… • Challenge: Overall demand is insufficient to provide jobs and hire those who need and wish to work • Challenge: Poverty, inequality, discrimination, precarious work conditions, low wages

The role of Government revisited Economic and Social outcomes of Laissez faire, and small government prove uneven and often times disappointing • In financial markets it can ameliorate instability and fragility: - Bailout… (who/how? ? ? ) - But also different rules and regulations are needed (what are the new rules? ? ? ) These are not simply technical issues

A framework to understand the crisis from a gender perspective Paid formal Financial sector Market Production sector Government Sector Household production sector, plus Care, Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people Paid informal Unpaid Work

A framework to understand Gender dimension of the Crisis Neglect of domestic demand, reliance on exports, commodity chain production Washington Consensus, Inflation targeting Deficits, IMF, Social spending? ? ? Financial sector Financial market Liberalization Functional Distribution of Income ? Market Production sector Government sector Household production, Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people

A Gender perspective on the crisis Global and National economic and institutional arrangements in the making for many years led to this financial crisis disregarding another equally real crisis : the non-fulfillment of basic human needs and of a pro-poor, gender equitable development agenda

Outline of the issues presented 1. Asymmetric impacts of the Crisis 2. A Gender analysis on the crisis a) how are women impacted upon differently than men? b) what may be a gender equality agenda at this juncture? 3. The policy space created: the right to a job? a)Can the “right to work” become part of the Constitutional set of rights? b) can it also promote gender-equality and pro-poor growth?

• Asymmetry #1 Developing countries are hit by the current crisis hard, for no fault of their own Asymmetry #2 Not all governments have the capacity to engage in expansionary policy and fiscal stimulus packages • Asymmetry #3 Social impacts are uneven: People living in poverty have little to cushion them; As poor women and men occupy different social and economic positions, their response to the crisis and their suffering from it should not be treated as identical

Asymmetry #1 Developing countries are hit hard by the current crisis, and for no fault of their own – GDP growth – Trade flows – Remittances

Declining GDP per capita De-coupling? Source: top graph Jomo K, UN-DESA (July 13 -14, 2009; GEM-IWG conference); bottom graph Jayati Ghosh (July 10, 2009; GEM-IWG Workshop)

World Trade (percentage change per year) Top Recipients of Migrant remittances Remittances in Mexico and other Latin American Countries($US)

Asymmetry #2 Not all governments have the capacity to engage in expansionary policy and fiscal stimulus packages

Most vulnerable: high poverty and slow growth

External Indicators of Developing and Transition Economies (with Population over 5 Million) 2003 to 2007 Current Account Balance Number of Countries External Debt % improvement % of GDP 2003 % of GDP 2006 % with improvement Foreign Exchange Reserves, excl. gold % of GDP % of % with 2003 GDP 2007 improvement Africa 31 45% 89. 7 43. 0 97% 12. 8 18. 1 78% Central and Eastern Europe 8 38% 55. 4 57. 3 57% 21. 0 23. 2 63% CIS 8 25% 56. 1 44. 5 88% 12. 9 21. 3 100% Latin America and the Caribbean 16 38% 63. 7 37. 6 100% 11. 7 14. 8 69% Middle East, incl. Egypt 7 43% 54. 0 28. 6 100% 41. 1 50. 1 40% Asia, incl. NICs 20 45% 52. 5 36. 9 100% 27. 2 32. 7 69%

• Asymmetry#3 Social Impacts are uneven – People living in poverty have little to cushion them – Women and men respond differently to the crisis

Social impacts • ILO: 200 m. more working poor • ILO: Unemployment to rise by 51 m • World Bank: 53 million more people in poverty This is on top of the 130 -155 million people pushed into poverty in 2008 because of soaring food and fuel prices • Social spending is at risk (infant and maternal mortality) – decline in state revenues – ODA volatility and financing for MDGs • Rising social unrest • Crisis is expected to lead to greatest security risks

Social Impacts are uneven • Malnourishment and school withdrawal among poor children: in most countries, girls suffer more • Women increase their Supply of Labour because they accept to work under very informal conditions • Men suffer from depression, low self-esteem and will experience in some cases a decrease in life expectancy • When tax revenues decline, government social spending is the first victim. More unpaid work by women who end up working longer (unpaid) hours to close the gaps plus maternal mortality will be further on the rise

What have we learned from past crises? 1. Investment rates collapse and savings rates rise (i. e. , The Asian crisis of 1997 -98) countercyclical policies are badly needed (IMF? WB? ) 2. Even when economic growth resumes, employment levels take a very long time to recover public service job creation policies are badly needed

Jayati Ghosh, GEM-IWG Workshop, Day 10, Session II, July 10, 2009, The Levy Economics Institute

What else do we know from past experiences? • The Asian financial crisis shows that the massive unemployment impacts --doubled rates within a year of the crisis-- persisted for a long time (LABORSTA, ILO) • Indonesia has never recovered • Thailand the Philippines have taken nearly a decade to decrease unemployment rates to the pre-crisis levels

2. A Gender perspective on the crisis (continued) a) how are women impacted upon differently than men? b) what may be a gender equality agenda at this juncture?

Total Workload – Earnings Gap: Selected Developing Countries

What Is Unpaid Work? • Gaining access to basic inputs for cooking, cleaning, sanitation, food processing etc: collecting water, wood etc • Providing Care work: children, elderly, chronically ill etc; Volunteer work; Subsistence Production, family businesses Where? at home and in the public domain

HOUSEHOLDS in the Economy: The conventional view Business Sector Formal work some family labor Banks Formal work Public Sector Formal Work Household Sector Supplies labor Receives income Saves and Consumes Original graphic design of this and the following slide is from Eugenia Gomez Luna, "Unpaid work and the System of National Accounts", Session 9, Conference on “Unpaid Work: gender, poverty and the MDG’s, ” October 3 -4, 2005, http: //www. levy. org/undp-levy-conference/program_documents. asp

…a different (Macro) perspective Business Sector Formal Labor Informal Labor Upaid work Volunteer work Public Sector Formal Labor NGO Sector Formal Volunteer Informal Labor Upaid work Volunteer work Household Sector Formal work Informal work Unpaid work Deterioration of Human capabilities?

Women and Employment Guarantee Programs Issue#1: Issue#2: Issue#3: Supply of labor issues ( constraints by unpaid work; availability of crèche etc) types of projects women want Participation in design of projects (unpaid work, cooperatives, skill enhancement) evaluation criteria must include reduction of drudgery and unpaid work

Gender paths of transmission of the crisis • Micro credit and Micro-finance institutions • Paid work in export sectors: textiles, consignment, agriculture and tourism • Informal work and vulnerable workers • Unpaid work and invisible vulnerabilities • Remittances and migration

Micro-finance institutions REMITTANCES and Migration Over 3, 330 MFIs reached 133 million clients in 2006 Tajikistan(45. 5% of GDP), Moldova (35% of GDP) 93 million of the clients were among the poorest when they took their first loan, 85% women Uganda, Zimbabwe and Tajikistan(drop of 50%) EXPORTS High-end agricultural Malaysia - garments 78% female Uganda - cut flowers 85% female Bangladesh- garments 85% female Ecuador- cut flowers 70% female Philippines- electronics 53% female Thailand fruits 80% female

The crisis? We must bear in mind that for many people, in many countries this crisis comes to sit on top of other crises • • • poverty income inequality diminishing space for livelihoods unemployment Basic needs remain unfulfilled, including the right to a job

3. The policy space created: the right to a job? a) Can the “right to work” become part of the Constitutional set of rights? b) Can it also promote gender-equality and pro-poor growth?

Why an EGS, ELR, PWP? The right to work promotes • Dignity, inclusion and expanded democracy (rights based approach to economics and to life) • Direct and indirect income creation • Direct and indirect job creation • RESOURSE MOBILIZATION? ? ? LABOUR!!!! • But community development promoting work!!! that also reduces unpaid work

Why an EGS, ELR, PWP? The right to work promotes (continued) • Public and Private Asset creation • Pro-poor growth • Change our mentality about growth as the single developmental objective and replace it with propoor growth, employment creation, social inclusion, improvement in the life of all people

Typology of Direct Job Creation Government Programs • The Right to Work: INDIA NREGA since 2006 • Recognition of Unemployment during prosperity: South Africa since 2005, Sweden and Australia (1940’s-70’s) • ILO Employment Intensive Infrastructure(since 70’s in many African countries) • Emergency Programmes: Indonesia, Korea, Argentina post 2001 financial crisis, USA (New Deal and now) • Social Funds: Bolivia (1986), Chile (1975 -1987), Peru (1991) ? ?

Employment Guarantee Programs -What kinds of jobs and for what types of “projects”? -Who is eligible? For how long? -What is the “cost” of such projects and what are the “benefits”? Financing? Are they inflationary? -Institutional arrangements? Technical expertise?

Employment Guarantee Programs • Expanded Public Works Programmes [infrastructure, social sector, environment, economic] SOUTH AFRICA • National Rural Employment Guarantee Act [Right to Information Act- Ongoing Social Audits ] INDIA

Unemployment Rate - African, poor/ultra-poor (strict definition) Ex-homeland Poor Ex-homeland Ultra-poor Female Rural com Poor Male Rural com Ultra-poor Urban informal Poor Urban informal Ultra-poor Urban formal Poor Urban formal Ultra-poor 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Time Spent on Unpaid Work -SA

Total Hours Spent on Unpaid Work per Year by Household Type and Gender Ex-homeland African Rural Commercial White Household Group Rural Commercial Coloured/Asian Female Rural Commercial African Male Urban Informal African Urban Formal White Urban Formal Coloured/Asian Total Hours Per Year 8, 000, 000 7, 000, 000 6, 000, 000 5, 000, 000 4, 000, 000 3, 000, 000 2, 000, 000 1, 000, 000 0 Urban Formal African

Rural Areas in India Types of Community Projects Rural roads and access roads Rural land development Flood control works Water conservation and water harvesting Irrigation facilities to land owned by poor people and to beneficiaries of land reforms Reactivation of traditional water harvesting and distribution systems

EPWP Types of Community Projects Road construction and maintenance Water delivery Ecological latrines Early childhood development (unpaid work) Home and community based care (unpaid work) Environmental water conservation Prevention of fires

EPWP: Social Sector • Social Sector consists of – ECD/Education and – HCBC/Health • High female intensity (60 and 69% respectively) addresses female unemployment in the short run and builds skills in the long-term • Data source: Friedman, Irwin, Bhengu, L. , Mothibe, N. , Reynolds, N. , and Mafuleka, A. , (2007) Scaling up the EPWP, Health Systems Trust, November, Volume 1 -4. Study commissioned by Development Bank of South Africa and EPWP.

Background on the Study • Type of Intervention : scaling up Early Childhood Development and Home/Community Based Care • The right to work , the right types of projects? unpaid work and gender issues • Research project on micro-macro impact of scaling up public job creation • South Africa Study: Kijong Kim (Levy Institute), EPWP interviews , Irwin Friedman (Health Trust Fund) and PROVIDE team (Dept. of Agriculture)

EPWP: Social Sector

The SAM for South Africa • Based on PROVIDE, Dept. of Agriculture • Factors disaggregated by skill and gender • 26 sectors • 20 types of hhs • 7 exogenous sectors

Types of Households

Policy Simulations • All Existing Types of Projects have the potential to reduce unpaid work and facilitate creation and access to basic services EPWP Working for Water; environment sector (Tsitsikamma 2004/05) EPWP Social Sector (Health Trust Fund) EPWP Infrastructure; Access roads and Water Reticulation (SCIP Engineering Group) • Options for Job allocation scheme Jefes variation by population weights (part time year around) NREGA scheme (100 days) Poverty weights-normalized by population Unemployment weights normalized by poverty incidence • Target population Poor and ultra poor households comprising (50% of the unemployed); “unskilled” wages according to programme stipulations and skilled according to SAM

Impact of EPWP Injection • • • ex-ante evaluation of policy scenarios Direct and indirect job creation (skill level/gender/sector) Direct and indirect income received by type of hh Depth of poverty reduction GDP growth? Pro-poor growth? Sectoral growth? Fiscal space expansion? Impact of new assets and service delivery for participants and community

Simulation Results 9 billion Rand, full time-year around jobs • Direct job creation (1, 2 million) • Indirect job creation: for every 3 EPWP, another one in the economy is created • GDP (+1. 7%), tax expansion (1/3 recovered) • Poverty reduction: pro-poor growth!

Costs and Benefits • Social inclusion • Income-Poverty reduction? This depends on the length and duration of jobs, wages and targeting method • Asset poverty reduction!!! • Service delivery!!! • Gender equality in unpaid and paid work • Pro-poor development • Monetary cost: 1% of GDP …. ? 3% of GDP? • Opportunity cost of not mobilizing domestic resources?

www. economistsforfullemployment. org Thank you The International Working Group on Gender, Macroeconomics and International Economics www. genderandmacro. org

www. economistsforfullemployment. org member institutions. . . we are. . . a group of economists working towards building a global informal network of academics, policy advisors, institutions, advocates and members of government, committed to the realization of the right to work… we are committed to. . . joining forces with all who foster public dialogue and seek to promote employment guarantee around the world. Together, we can provide coherent, viable policy alternatives that lead to inclusive and just outcomes for all…