Effects of Sea Level Rise on Critical Natural

Effects of Sea Level Rise on Critical Natural Habitats in Vietnam John Pilgrim, Bird. Life International in Indochina Biodiversity and Climate Change: Links with Poverty and Sustainable Development 22 - 23 May 2007, Hanoi, Vietnam

A recent World Bank study* predicted: • Vietnam would be one of the two developing countries worldwide most affected by climate change • Severe impacts on human population, agricultural land, and GDP in Vietnam • A large proportion of Vietnam’s most productive land would be inundated * Dasgupta, S. , Laplante, B. , Meisner, C. , Wheeler, D. and Yan, J. (2007) The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136, February 2007. World Bank, Washington, DC.

However, it provided little insight into. . . • Initial impacts of sea level rise on biodiversity • Knock-on effects of sea level rise from increased pressure for agricultural land or living space But, assessing impacts of sea level rise on remaining natural habitats is critically important: • to guide biodiversity conservation; and • because poor people are disproportionately dependent on natural resources

This study: • Identifies and maps Critical Natural Habitats in Vietnam • Models same range of scenarios as World Bank (1 -5 m sea level rise) • Assesses impacts of sea level rise scenarios on Critical Natural Habitats

Natural Habitats “land water areas where (i) the ecosystems' biological communities are formed largely by native plant and animal species, and (ii) human activity has not essentially modified the area's primary ecological functions” (iii) (World Bank Operational Policies)

Critical Natural Habitats “(i) existing protected areas and areas officially proposed by governments as protected areas. . . and sites that maintain conditions vital for the viability of these protected areas. . . or (ii) sites identified on supplementary lists. . . Such sites may include. . . sites that are critical for rare, vulnerable, migratory, or endangered species. ” (World Bank Operational Policies)

So, in this study Critical Natural Habitats = 1. existing & proposed protected areas (PA Source. Book) + 2. areas supporting important populations of threatened, restricted-range, or congregatory species (Important Bird Areas, Key Biodiversity Areas) (knowledge of freshwater CNH weaker)

Protected Area Source. Book

Important Bird Areas (IBAs)

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) (IBAs are a subset of KBAs)

Critical Natural Habitats 286 sites (139 PAs, 40 KBAs, 107 both PA & KBA)

Sea level rise (dark blue = 1 m, light blue = 5 m)

Critical Natural Habitats affected (Red River Delta) Halong Bay Van Long Nature Reserve

Critical Natural Habitats affected (Mekong Delta) Tram Chim National Park

Tram Chim, 2050?

Results: 1 m sea level rise Predicted to affect: 78 (27%) Critical Natural Habitats = 46 (33%) Protected Areas 9 (23%) Key Biodiversity Areas 23 (21%) Areas both PA & KBA

Results: 5 m sea level rise Predicted to affect: 87 (30%) Critical Natural Habitats = 52 (37%) Protected Areas 10 (25%) Key Biodiversity Areas 25 (23%) Areas both PA & KBA

Key points • Very high magnitude of predicted impact (30% of all Critical Natural Habitats); • Many affected areas are wetlands (some of the habitats most valuable to poor peoples’ subsistence livelihoods); • Very little difference between scenarios: a relatively small (1 m) rise in sea level will impact almost as many important sites – and almost as much area within sites – as a large rise in sea level (5 m)

Conclusions • Vietnam is facing serious impacts on natural habitats and biodiversity from even minor climate change • For imperilled sites, Vietnam can: (i) give up; (ii) ‘lock down’; (iii) continue conservation while finding long-term solutions (e. g. , managed retreat)

Conclusions (continued) • Impacts on biodiversity urgently need to be considered in plans to mitigate climate change, not only by the government and environmental organisations, but also by development organisations. . .

. . . the same mudflats that provide food for rare birds like this Spoon-billed Sandpiper. . .

. . . provide food and livelihoods for some of the poorest people in Vietnam. . .