Effects of CatchatAge Sample Size on Gulf of

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Effects of Catch-at-Age Sample Size on Gulf of Mexico Gray Triggerfish Spawning Stock Biomass

Effects of Catch-at-Age Sample Size on Gulf of Mexico Gray Triggerfish Spawning Stock Biomass Estimates Jeff Isely SEFSC Miami

Data Inputs • Homogeneous stock structure • Landings and indices calculated for eastern and

Data Inputs • Homogeneous stock structure • Landings and indices calculated for eastern and western regions, but one population model constructed for entire Gulf of Mexico • Lorenzen mortality • Fixed growth curve • Estimated discards • Catch-at-age composition • Annual age-length keys • Estimated external to the model • SS 3 2

Data Inputs: Life History Age and Growth Gray Triggerfish SEDAR 43 Growth Curve 3

Data Inputs: Life History Age and Growth Gray Triggerfish SEDAR 43 Growth Curve 3

Data Inputs: Life History Age and Growth • Large size at Age 0 •

Data Inputs: Life History Age and Growth • Large size at Age 0 • Few observations of small fish • • Grow rapidly Achieve maximum size at a young age Little “recruitment signal” in length data No fecundity – age relationship • Used length-based fecundity curve 4

Model Configuration 5

Model Configuration 5

Data Inputs: Landings Recreational Landings 1200000 1000000 800000 Private/ Charter Landings (N) East Headboat

Data Inputs: Landings Recreational Landings 1200000 1000000 800000 Private/ Charter Landings (N) East Headboat Landings (N) East Private/ Charter Landings(N) West Headboat Landings (N) West 600000 400000 200000 0 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Landings (Numbers of Fish) 1400000 Year 6

Data Inputs: Landings Commercial Landings by Gear - East Commercial Landings by Gear -

Data Inputs: Landings Commercial Landings by Gear - East Commercial Landings by Gear - West 450000 400000 350000 200000 Handline Longline Trap Total 180000 160000 140000 Landings (lbs) 300000 250000 200000 150000 120000 100000 80000 60000 100000 40000 20000 0 0 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 50000 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Landings (lbs) Handline Longline Trap Total Year 7

Data Inputs: Discards Commercial Proportion of Catch Discarded Commercial Discards 1. 2 Com East

Data Inputs: Discards Commercial Proportion of Catch Discarded Commercial Discards 1. 2 Com East 1 Com West 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Year 8

Data Inputs: Discards Recreational Proportion of Catch Discarded Recreational Discards 1 0. 9 0.

Data Inputs: Discards Recreational Proportion of Catch Discarded Recreational Discards 1 0. 9 0. 8 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 East West 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 Year 9

Data Inputs: Discards Recreational Proportion of Catch Discarded Recreational Discards 1 0. 9 0.

Data Inputs: Discards Recreational Proportion of Catch Discarded Recreational Discards 1 0. 9 0. 8 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 West 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 Year 10

Data Inputs: Discards Recreational Proportion of Catch Discarded Recreational Discards 0. 9 0. 8

Data Inputs: Discards Recreational Proportion of Catch Discarded Recreational Discards 0. 9 0. 8 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 East 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 Year 11

Data Inputs: Indices of Abundance Headboat West Recreational East 4 3. 5 3 2.

Data Inputs: Indices of Abundance Headboat West Recreational East 4 3. 5 3 2. 5 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 1980 3. 5 MRFSS E 3 Relative Index Recreational indices used guild approach to select trips that caught reef fish (as in SEDAR 9 Update). HB W 2. 5 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 1990 2000 Year 2010 2020 Headboat East 0 1985 1995 Year 2005 2015 2. 5 Relative Index • Fishery Dependent HB E C 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 1980 1990 2000 Year 2010 2020 12

Data Inputs: Indices of Abundance Commercial Handline East 2. 5 Relative Index CH E

Data Inputs: Indices of Abundance Commercial Handline East 2. 5 Relative Index CH E 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 19 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 7 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 20 2 0 20 3 0 20 4 0 20 5 0 20 6 0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 1 20 1 1 20 2 13 0 Year Commercial Handline West 2. 5 CH W 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 7 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 20 2 0 20 3 0 20 4 0 20 5 0 20 6 0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 1 20 1 1 20 2 13 0 19 • Commercial indices used guild approach to select trips that caught reef fish (as in SEDAR 9 Update). Indices were adjusted for circle hook effect of 2. 14 Relative Index • Fishery Dependent Year 13

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Relative Index 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 Relative Index SEAMAP Neuston 2. 5 Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 06 20 07 Relative Index Data Inputs: Indices of Abundance Fishery Independent SEAMAP Trawl 3 2. 5 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 Year Combined Video 3. 5 3 2. 5 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 Year 14

Age Recreational vs. Commercial Individuals 1200 1000 800 600 400 2003 2004 2005 2006

Age Recreational vs. Commercial Individuals 1200 1000 800 600 400 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Recreational Numbers 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Commercial Numbers 15

Age Recreational vs. Commercial Catches Sampled 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004

Age Recreational vs. Commercial Catches Sampled 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Recreational Samples 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Commercial Samples 16

Age Commercial 1200 1000 800 600 400 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Commercial Samples

Age Commercial 1200 1000 800 600 400 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Commercial Samples 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Commercial Numbers 17

Age Recreational 1200 1000 800 600 400 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Recreational Samples

Age Recreational 1200 1000 800 600 400 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Recreational Samples 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recreational Numbers 18

Length Recreational vs. Commercial Individuals 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991

Length Recreational vs. Commercial Individuals 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recreational Numbers Commercial Numbers 19

Length Recreational vs. Commercial Samples 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1991 1992

Length Recreational vs. Commercial Samples 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recreational Samples Commercial Samples 20

Length Commercial 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Length Commercial 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Commercial Samples Commercial Numbers 21

Length Recreational 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994

Length Recreational 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recreational Samples Recreational Numbers 22

Sample Size categories • • • Number of individuals measured (Length) Number of trips

Sample Size categories • • • Number of individuals measured (Length) Number of trips sampled (Length) Number of individuals aged (age) Number of trips sampled (age) Number - weighted by catch Iterative reweighting of samples based on effective sample size • Number of individuals measured caped at 200 23

Sample Size categories • • • Number of individuals measured (Length) Number of trips

Sample Size categories • • • Number of individuals measured (Length) Number of trips sampled (Length) Number of individuals aged (age) Number of trips sampled (age) Number - weighted by catch Iterative reweighting of samples based on effective sample size • Number of individuals measured capped at 200 24

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Recreational 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993

Recreational 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Samples (L) Numbers (L) Catch Weighted Iterative Reweighting Cap at 200 26

Commercial 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Commercial 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Samples (L) Numbers (L) Catch Weighted Iterative Reweighting Cap at 200 27

Length Numbers 28

Length Numbers 28

Length Numbers 29

Length Numbers 29

SSB and Recruitment 30

SSB and Recruitment 30

Length Samples 31

Length Samples 31

Length Samples 32

Length Samples 32

Capped Sample Size @ 200 33

Capped Sample Size @ 200 33

Capped Sample Size @ 200 34

Capped Sample Size @ 200 34

Catch Weighted 35

Catch Weighted 35

Catch Weighted 36

Catch Weighted 36

Iterative Reweighting 37

Iterative Reweighting 37

Iterative Reweighting 38

Iterative Reweighting 38

0 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970

0 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 SSB/SSB 0 1. 2 1 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 Catch Numbers (L) Samples (L) Iterative Reweighted Cap 200 39

SSBB/SSB 0 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2

SSBB/SSB 0 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 02 20 01 20 20 00 0 Catch Numbers (L) Samples (L) Iterative Reweighted Cap 200 40

SSB/SSB 0 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2

SSB/SSB 0 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 02 20 01 20 20 00 0 Catch Numbers (L) Samples (L) Iterative Reweighted Cap 200 41

SSB/SSB 0 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2

SSB/SSB 0 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 02 20 01 20 20 00 0 Catch Numbers (L) Samples (L) Iterative Reweighted Cap 200 42

Sample Size vs. Current SSB/SSB 0 0. 45 0. 4 0. 35 0. 3

Sample Size vs. Current SSB/SSB 0 0. 45 0. 4 0. 35 0. 3 0. 25 0. 2 0. 15 0. 1 0. 05 0 R 2 = 0. 9329 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 43

19 45 19 47 19 49 19 51 19 53 19 55 19 57

19 45 19 47 19 49 19 51 19 53 19 55 19 57 19 59 19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 F/MFMT Results F/MFMT 2. 5 F/MFMT 2 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 44

2. 50 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

2. 50 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SSB/MSST Results SSB/MSST 3. 00 SEDAR 43 SSB/MSST 2. 00 1. 50 1. 00 0. 50 0. 00 45

2. 50 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

2. 50 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SSB/MSST Results SSB/MSST 3. 00 SEDAR 9 SSB/MSST SEDAR 43 SSB/MSST 2. 00 1. 50 1. 00 0. 50 0. 00 46

Catch Weighted 47

Catch Weighted 47

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Catch Weighted 49

Catch Weighted 49

Length Samples 50

Length Samples 50

Length Numbers 51

Length Numbers 51

Iterative Reweighting 52

Iterative Reweighting 52

Capped @ 200 53

Capped @ 200 53

Results 54

Results 54

Fits to Rec-E Indices Rec East Headboat East 55

Fits to Rec-E Indices Rec East Headboat East 55

Fits to Rec-W Indices Headboat West 56

Fits to Rec-W Indices Headboat West 56

Fits to COM Indices 57

Fits to COM Indices 57

Fits to Age Comp: Rec East 58

Fits to Age Comp: Rec East 58

Fits to Age Comp Rec West 59

Fits to Age Comp Rec West 59

Fits to Age Comp: Com-East 60

Fits to Age Comp: Com-East 60

Fits to Age Comp: Com-West 61

Fits to Age Comp: Com-West 61

Fleet Selectivity 62

Fleet Selectivity 62

Retention Rec-E Period 1: pre LL set at 6 inches Period 2: 12 inch

Retention Rec-E Period 1: pre LL set at 6 inches Period 2: 12 inch LL Period 3: 14 inch LL Assume “near” knifeedge selection 63

Spawner-Recruit Relationship Open circles – Observed Solid line – estimated Green line – corrected

Spawner-Recruit Relationship Open circles – Observed Solid line – estimated Green line – corrected 64

SSB and Recruitment 65

SSB and Recruitment 65

Results 66

Results 66

Average Age and Length 67

Average Age and Length 67