Effective Project Management The University of California Berkeley

Effective Project Management The University of California Berkeley – School of Information

Class 6 Agenda n n n Guest Speaker: Linda Clifford, CC Meyers Executive Summary

Project Time Management n n n Define Activities Sequence Activities Estimate Activity Resources Estimate Activity Durations Develop Schedule Control Schedule © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 3

Sequencing Guidelines n n Every activity and milestone except the first and last are connected to at least one predecessor and one successor. Use lead or lag time between activities as needed. © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 4

Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) n n n Used in Critical Path Methodology (CPM) to create a project schedule network diagram Also called Activity-on-Node (AON) or Task-on-Node (TON) and most PM software tools use. Shows tasks and their relationships Arrows show tasks are ordered and flow of time Exposes tasks that must be completed before others © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 5

Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) §Finish-to-start (FS) (most common) Task 1 must finish before Task 2 can start. For example, you can start to print a manual only after it has been written. §Start-to-start (SS) Task 2 cannot start until task 1 starts. For example, if you have two tasks, “Collecting Data" and “Entering Data, " you can start entering data once you have started collecting it. In essence they could both start at the same time. §Start-to-finish (SF) (rarely used) Task 2 cannot be finished sooner than Task 1 has started. The actual start of Task 2 controls the finish of Task 1. Think of a legacy system being shut down (Task 2) but not until the new system is up and running successfully (Task 1). §Finish-to-finish (FF) Task 2 cannot finish sooner than Task 1. For example, if you have two tasks, "Add wiring" and "Inspect wiring, " "Inspect wiring" can't finish until "Add wiring" finishes. © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. A B A B 6

Dependency Constraints 1. 2. 3. 4. n Technical constraints ¡ Discretionary constraints ¡ Best practice constraints ¡ Logical constraints ¡ Unique requirements constraints Management constraints Inter-project constraints Date constraints ¡ No earlier than ¡ No later than ¡ On this date Lag variables (pauses or delays) © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 7

Typical Precedence Diagramming Method Example © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 8

Determining Critical Path Each task is represented with a box with the following information:

Let’s Do This! © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 10

Forward Pass 1 st (Early Schedule) © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved.

Backward Pass 2 nd! (Late Schedule) • Right to left (finish to start) •

Determining “Slack” or “Float” Once we complete the forward and backward passes through the network, we can determine how much “slack” or “float” is in each task. Slack or Float is the length of time the task can be delayed without it affecting the project completion date. It is determined as follows: LF – EF When a task has zero slack, it is critical. Delay on these tasks will delay the entire project. © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. Do Not Plan to Use Slack to Bail Out the Project!

Resource Loading & Leveling n n Resource loading refers to the amount of individual resources an existing project schedule requires during specific time periods Over allocation means more resources than are available are assigned to perform work at a given time Resource leveling is a technique for resolving resource conflicts by delaying or splitting tasks The main purpose of resource leveling is to create a smoother distribution of resource usage and reduce over allocation Resource histograms show resource loading © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 14

Delaying & Splitting Tasks n Tasks that are on the critical path cannot be delayed without delaying the entire project schedule. To achieve resource leveling, critical tasks can only be split. n Tasks that have slack time can be delayed to achieve resource leveling © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 15

Schedule Compression n n Crashing ¡ Cost & Schedule tradeoffs are analyzed to determine how to obtain the greatest amount of compression for the least incremental cost. ¡ Examples, approving overtime, bringing in additional resources, paying to expedite delivery. n From non-critical path tasks to critical path or high-risk tasks or tasks with large duration variances n From other projects ¡ Replace a team member with a more skilled person. ¡ Only works where additional resources will shorten duration. ¡ Can increase risk and/or cost. Fast Tracking ¡ Taking phases or activities that are normally performed in sequence are performed in parallel. ¡ Only works if activities can be overlapped to shorten the duration. ¡ May result in rework and increased risk. © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 16

Management Reserve n n n A schedule contingency for the unexpected Pa rk in La son w ’s DO NOT PAD ACTIVITY DURATION A percentage of total project work hours (for example, 5 -10% of the total duration) The last activity in the project Make it visible and manage it © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 17

Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) n n Critical Path approach is flawed (resource independent), focus should be on the path that is task-dependent and resource-constrained = critical chain Modifies project schedule ¡ ¡ n Reduces durations by 50% Removes slack/float Common and special cause variation ¡ Common: natural and not much you can do about it n ¡ Runner 100 -meter race 9. 85, 9. 88, 9. 92, 9. 86 seconds Special: you can do something to mitigate or avoid n n 20 mph winds, 5, 000 foot elevation, 100 -degree heat Dealt with in your risk management plan © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 18

Critical Chain in Practice © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 19

Why do something different? n n n Do you have car insurance? Spreads the risk by having a shared pool of funds to draw from in times of need. Why not apply the same concept to projects and have a shared pool of time? Takes into account some tasks will complete early, some on time and some late. Allows PM to manage buffers instead of worrying about each task’s finish © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 20

Critical Chain in Practice © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 21

Critical Chain in Practice © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 22

Key Point of Insurance Applies Typical time reduction of 25 -50% © 2011 by

Buffers n n n Non-work activities to manage uncertainty Project buffer at the end, protects the target finish date Feeding buffers placed at points where tasks feed into the critical chain Buffer size should account for uncertainty Resource buffer is inserted just before critical chain activity where ever a critical resource required, used to signal the critical resource and prompt them to wrap up any non-critical work and be ready to start work on the critical chain task as soon as its predecessors are completed. The resource buffer does not actually consume any resource, and it adds neither time nor cost to the project. © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 24

risk ide ntificati Risk Management n n n ris on nt sme s s ka risk mitigation risk monitoring & control No project is without risk Identify risks early so we can prepare or do something about them Avoid rework Proactive rather reactive where possible Manage expectations Better our chance of success © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 25

What Is Risk? n n n Has a “cause” and a “consequence” Has a probability of occurrence Has an impact if it occurs Future – not past Can be positive or negative ¡ n A risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective. Risk with a 100% probability of occurrence isn’t a risk – it is an issue © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 26

Risk Types & Sources n n Known-Unknowns-Unknowns Source ¡ ¡ Technical Project Management Organizational

Identifying Risks RISK CATEGORIES AND RISKS SCOPE TRIANGLE ELEMENTS Scope Time Cost Quality Resources Technical Project Management Organizational External © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 28

Risk Register Example © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 29

Risk Analysis: Qualitative & Quantitative n Assess & Assign for each Risk ¡ ¡ ¡ n Probability Consequence or Impact (to cost, schedule, quality, etc. ) Priority Impact. How much do you care when it happens? ¡ ¡ ¡ Determine your tolerance levels Measurement in a unknown future world Will this hurt? Will it make the 6 PM news? Can cope, but at a cost Will the impact change over time? © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 30

Prioritize Risk n Based on ¡ ¡ ¡ Tolerance level Potential cost Probability of

High Medium Low Consequence of Occurrence Simple Probability & Impact Matrix Action List is Adequate No Plan Needed Low Action Plan Required Action List is Adequate No Plan Needed Action List is Adequate Medium High Probability of Occurrence © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 32

Probability Risk Map Example Threshold line © 2011 by Anne Walker. Impact All rights

Quantitative Risk Analysis n n Probability of meeting project objectives Quantify risk exposure ¡ ¡ n n n Probability distributions Expected value analysis Decision tree analysis Simulation Further identify risks requiring the most attention Identify realistic and achievable cost, schedule or scope targets Generally follows qualitative analysis © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 34

Risk Assessment Worksheet Example © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 35

Risk Response Planning n n Process of developing options, and determining actions to reduce threats or enhance opportunities to the projects’ objectives. Conducted based on results of risk analysis Assigns risks to “risk owners” Applies resources and activities into the budget, schedule, and project management plan as needed. © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 36

Risk Responses n n Avoid ¡ Involves making a change to the project (design, requirement, specification, practices) that eliminates or reduces the risk to an acceptable level. Transfer ¡ Shifts the risk impact to another party. Mitigation ¡ Attempts to mitigate the risk by reducing the probability and/or impact of the risk event. Acceptance (active or passive) © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 37

Risk Response Summary Example © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 38

Contingency Planning n n n Risk based and is used to cover the costs or time required to avoid, transfer, mitigate or bear the realization of risks. Typically controlled by PM, separate from project budget Determine contingency using project planning tools and methods ¡ Adequate amount for identified risks that are associated w/ project ¡ Define any specified contingency and guidelines for use n When to use? What triggers use? n If not used, then what? ¡ Assign to: n Specific work packages based on the risks that were identified for specific tasks n By phases – have riskier phases than others © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 39

Assigning Contingency by Phase © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 40

Relationship between Budget, Contingency &Management Reserve © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved.

Monitoring & Controlling Risks n n Implement any risk response plans as necessary Track and review identified risks, look for and identify new ones Evaluate if risk has changed or can be retired Apply contingency if needed © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 42

Top 10 Risk List n n n Top 10 Risk Item tracking is a way to maintain an awareness of risk throughout the life of a project Establish a periodic review of the top 10 project risk items List the current ranking, previous ranking, number of times the risk appears on the list over a period of time, and a summary of progress made in resolving the risk item © 2011 by Anne Walker. All rights reserved. 43