Effect by Climate Change Ocean surface temperature Sea

Effect by Climate Change Ocean surface temperature Sea level GHG concentration *IPCC 5 th Report(2014)

Estimation of future climate by RCP Scenario o IPCC 5차 보고서에 따른 온실가스 배출량 시나리오(RCP) (표 8. 1) Table. RCP scenario, according to 5 th IPCC report scenario characteristics RCP 8. 5 BAU scenario RCP 6. 0 RCP 4. 5 Promote the reduction strategy of GHGs emission (RCP 6. 0) Promote the more severe reduction strategy of GHGs emission (RCP 4. 5) GHGs concentration (until 2, 100) >1270 ppm rise ~850 ppm stable ~650 ppm stable Self-purification by the earth, itself Max. concentration 490 RCP 2. 6 to recover the anthropogenic effect ppm before 2100 and (not actualization) decrease after that * RCP: Representative Concentration Pathways Type decrease after rise

Global avg. temperature and mean sea level estimated by RCP Scenario 2046– 2065 Global Mean Surface Temperature Change (°C) Global Mean Sea Level Rise (m) Likely range 2081– 2100 Mean RCP 2. 6 1. 0 0. 4 to 1. 6 1. 0 0. 3 to 1. 7 RCP 4. 5 1. 4 0. 9 to 2. 0 1. 8 1. 1 to 2. 6 RCP 6. 0 1. 3 0. 8 to 1. 8 2. 2 1. 4 to 3. 1 RCP 8. 5 2. 0 1. 4 to 2. 6 3. 7 2. 6 to 4. 8 Scenario Mean RCP 2. 6 0. 24 0. 17 to 0. 32 0. 40 0. 26 to 0. 55 RCP 4. 5 0. 26 0. 19 to 0. 33 0. 47 0. 32 to 0. 63 RCP 6. 0 0. 25 0. 18 to 0. 32 0. 48 0. 33 to 0. 63 RCP 8. 5 0. 30 0. 22 to 0. 38 0. 63 0. 45 to 0. 82 Likely range Mean Likely range Scenario Mean Likely range

Summary of global temperature, rainfall and rise of sea level - estimated by IPCC scenarios RCP Scenario CO 2 concentration RCP 4. 5 RCP 8. 5 540 ppm 940 ppm Temperature +2. 5℃ +4. 6℃ Rainfall +4. 1% +5. 9% (until 2, 100) Rise of sea level +70. 6 cm +88. 5 cm

Estimate Korean future climate by RCP 4. 5 scenario • Result for future Korean Climate by RCP 4. 5 scenario Present First period in middle period in Latter period in (1981 - 21 century 21 century 2010) (2011 -2040) (2041 -2070) (2071 -2100) avg. temp. 11. 0 12. 4 (12. 5) 13. 4 (14. 4) 14. 0 (16. 7) max. temp. 16. 6 17. 9 (18. 1) 18. 9 (19. 9) 19. 4 (22. 2) min. temp. 6. 2 7. 7 (7. 7) 8. 6 (9. 7) 9. 3 (12. 0) rainfall 1162. 2 1234. 3 (1201. 1) 1283. 7 (1342. 1) 1348. 1 (1366. 9) wind 1. 9 (1. 9) 1. 8 (1. 9) relative humidity 70. 2 70. 1 (70. 0) 69. 8 (70. 4) 70. 4 (70. 3) cloud amounts 5. 2 (5. 2) heat wave days 7. 3 8. 8 (10. 2) 11. 1 (15. 2) 13. 1 (30. 2) tropical night days 2. 8 4. 1 (5. 7) 9. 0 (16. 6) 13. 6 (37. 2) heavy rain days 2. 0 2. 3 (2. 1) 2. 6 (2. 8) 2. 7 (2. 8) * source : Korean climate change report (2014)

The Cause of increasing GHGs concentration o. necessary to restrain the increase of temperature within 2 ℃ for minimizing the effect by climate change - 1, 000 Gt CO 2 eq. as permissible total GHGs emission amounts until 2, 100 - already 531 Gt CO 2 emitted till 2011 - permissible GHGs emission amounts to emit until 2, 100; 470 Gt CO 2

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