Economy Agriculture Land Reform June 2016 Economy bad

Economy, Agriculture & Land Reform June 2016 Economy bad Agriculture doing well Some land reform reflections 2016/06/17 1

Economy Bad • Population growth: 1. 65% – Assuming one immigrant every 3, 5 minutes • Econ growth: – 2014: – 2015: – 2016: – 2017: – 2018: 2016/06/17 1. 5% 1. 3% 0. 5% ? 0. 9% ? 1. 7% to 2. 2% ? 2

Getting Richer 25 lost years 21 yrs +32% Growth: the history 3 yrs 19 yrs -11%

Agriculture Doing Well • Increases in production over 20 years – Measured in constant Rands • In 2004: 10% more than in 1994 • In 2009: 29% more • In 2014: 40% more • In 2015: 8% less because of drought, still 29% higher than 1994 2016/06/17 4

Fewer Farmers • • 1990 s: 66 000 2004: 44 000 2007: < 40 000 2016: probably around 32 000 Decline of more than 50% Increase in production 40% Complete nonsense that fewer farmers mean “less production” or that “agriculture is collapsing” 2016/06/17 5

Employment in Agriculture • 2000 • 2008 • 2011 - well over 1. 2 mil 860 000 620 000 • 50% decline in number of jobs • 2013 - 764 000 • R 105 per day minimum wage introduced • 2016 867 000 • From 2011 low point: +40% • Another 1. 7 million in subsistence farming 2016/06/17 6

Two Dualisms Highly developed commercial sector Efficiency 2016/06/17 Large subsistence, smallholder sector Equity 7

Land Reform is … • A historical necessity caused by 1913 Land Act, not obliterated by time (Scotland) • A constitutional imperative – sec 25 • A political compromise – part of deal on property rights • Both rural (land reform) and urban (RDP housing) 2016/06/17 8

Scotland’s Long History • 1560: Reformation – church lands grabbed • 1617: Act of Prescription • 2000/2004: feudalism abolished (after Scottish Parliament established) – England 1660 – France 1792 2016/06/17 9

Scotland in 2015 • Scottish National Party (SNP) election promise: “Programme of radical land reform” • Scottish Labour Party (SLP): “Not radical enough” • “Scotland has the most concentrated pattern of land ownership in Europe, and that raises questions about … lack of control …over their own destinies and concentration of wealth and power. ” • 432 owners own 50% of Scotland’s private land; 221 own 40%; 16 own 10%. Private land 83% of rural land. • Tenant farmers to buy land they work • “Community right to buy” or community in villages can buy land • No authoritarian seizure or violent revolution 2016/06/17 10

SA Constitution Prescribes: • Land restitution – sec 25(7) – “…dispossessed of property after 19 June 1913 …racially discriminatory laws” • Access to land – sec 25(5) – “reasonable … measures, within its available resources, to foster conditions…gain access to land on an equitable basis • Tenure reform – sec 25(6) – “…tenure of land is legally insecure …. to tenure which is secure or redress. ” – Tenant farmers who lived on land for a long time – Communal land under control of the Chiefs 2016/06/17 11

Targets and Progress • 30% of 82 mil ha = • By March 2016 = 24. 6 mil ha 7. 8 mil ha (9. 5%) – + private transactions: 3 – 4 mil ha or 5%? • NDP target for 2030 • By 2020 • Tough targets: – Over first 20 years – Goal 4 years to 2020 – Remaining to 2030 2016/06/17 16. 4 mil ha (20%) 2 mil ha 390 k ha p. a. 500 k ha p. a. 660 k ha p. a. 12

Follow the money • Till 31 March 2016 some R 63 billion spent • Beneficiaries: – Land acquisition: R 12. 9 bill + R 18. 7 bill = R 31. 6 bill (50%) – Compensation for restitution: R 9 bill (14%) – RECAP programme: R 3. 2 bill (5%) – 435 000 beneficiaries • Does this look like Zimbabwe? 2016/06/17 13

Property Clause (sec 25) • Sec 25 (1) – no one may be deprived of property except in in terms of a law of general application, and no law may permit arbitrary deprivation • Sec 25(2) – property may be expropriated only i. t. o. a law of general application for – A public purpose – Subject to compensation – The amount of which has been either agreed or decided by court • Sec 25 (3) – the amount of the compensation must be just and equitable 2016/06/17 14

So What? • Economy bad: – 5 years of stagnant/declining per capita incomes – not as bad as 20 years before 1994 • Agriculture doing well despite drought: – Rains will improve it again • Land reform is: – A constitutional and historical imperative – Leaves two dualisms: can manage them successfully 2016/06/17 15