Economic Impacts of COVID19 Summary Understanding the impacts

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Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Summary Understanding the impacts of COVID-19 – Summary Update Prepared

Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Summary Understanding the impacts of COVID-19 – Summary Update Prepared by Economy & Planning: Research & Intelligence Team Updated 12. 11. 2020

Economic activity and output have fallen significantly • • • UK GDP grew by

Economic activity and output have fallen significantly • • • UK GDP grew by a record 15. 5% in Q 3 (July to September), although this level remains 9. 7% below where it was at the end of 2019. Total weekly hours worked are still low but showing some signs of recovery. The number of employees on payroll declined by 2. 6% in October compared with the same time last year, a reduction of 763, 000 people over a 12 month period. Sources: ONS, GDP First Quarterly Estimate (Q 3), November Labour Market Update

National claimant count has risen sharply, whilst job postings have dropped precipitously • •

National claimant count has risen sharply, whilst job postings have dropped precipitously • • • Interest in unemployment data is high, but its reliability is an issue Job postings have fallen dramatically, but are beginning a slow recovery. , increasing by 182, 000 from the low over April. June. From July to September, the estimated employment rate was 0. 6 percentage points down on the quarter, with unemployment hitting 4. 8%, 0. 7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. Redundancies increased in July to September by a record 181, 000 on the quarter, reaching a record high of 314, 000. Claimant count has increased significantly, reaching 2. 6 million in October. but overestimates unemployment, as claimants not necessarily out of/or seeking work. Source: Office for National Statistics – Labour Market Overview For more info on issues pertaining to unemployment data please refer to our COVID-19 Info Pack

Labour Market Headline Indicators in the South West – November 2020 • The SW’s

Labour Market Headline Indicators in the South West – November 2020 • The SW’s employment rate stood at 76. 5% from July to September, a drop of 3. 5 percentage points when compared to November to January and a drop of 4. 4 percentage points when compared to the same period last year. • The South West has also seen a significant drop in overall job numbers from the same time last year, with a fall of 23, 947 jobs overall. • The SW’s unemployment rate stood at 4. 1%, an increase of 0. 3 percentage points on the quarter and 1. 5 percentage points on the year, with the SW also seeing the largest increase in its unemployment rate compared to the same time last year of any region. • In addition, the South West saw the largest increase in the economic inactivity rate compared with the same period last year, seeing an increase of 3. 2 percentage points on the year to reach 19. 9% overall.

Somerset claimant counts have risen sharply since March • • • There has been

Somerset claimant counts have risen sharply since March • • • There has been a steep rise in the claimant count across Somerset since March, with 4. 8% of Somerset’s working age population claiming out-of-work benefits in October. Somerset had consistently lower claimant rates than the national average before the crisis and this remains the case. Please Note: Claimant count figures do NOT provide a direct measure of unemployment and claimant conditionalities were relaxed in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Claimant Count as a Proportion of Residents Mar - 20 April -20 May 20 June 20 July - Aug 20 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Cumul ative Increa se 7, 0 6, 0 5, 0 Mendip 2. 3 4. 5 5. 6 5. 3 5. 5 5. 7 5. 3 +3. 0 4, 0 Sedgemoor 2. 8 4. 7 5. 6 5. 4 5. 5 5. 7 5. 5 5. 1 +2. 3 Somerset West & Taunton 2. 2 4 4. 9 4. 6 4. 8 5. 0 4. 8 4. 6 +2. 4 South Somerset 1. 9 3. 8 4. 7 4. 6 4. 8 4. 4 +2. 5 Somerset 2. 3 4. 2 5. 1 4. 9 5. 1 5. 2 5. 1 4. 8 +2. 5 South West 2. 2 4. 3 5. 4 5. 1 5. 3 5. 4 5. 3 5. 0 +2. 8 United Kingdom 3. 0 5. 1 6. 4 6. 2 6. 4 6. 5 6. 3 +3. 3 3, 0 2, 0 1, 0 Ja n u Fe ary br 2 ua 01 9 r M y 20 ar 1 ch 9 Ap 201 ril 9 2 M 01 ay 9 Ju 201 ne 9 2 Ju 019 l y A 2 Se ugu 01 pt st 9 em 20 b 1 Oc er 9 2 t No ob 019 ve er 2 De mbe 019 ce r 2 m 01 b Ja er 2 9 nu 0 Fe ary 19 br 2 ua 02 0 r M y 20 ar 2 ch 0 Ap 202 ril 0 2 M 02 ay 0 Ju 202 ne 0 2 Ju 020 Au ly 2 Se gu 02 pt st 0 em 20 b 2 Oc er 0 to 20 be 20 r 2 02 0 0, 0 Mendip Sedgemoor SWT Somerset South West United Kingdom South Somerset Source: NOMIS, Claimant Count by Sex and Age (non-seasonally adjusted)

The economic impacts of C-19 have been particularly hard on young people • Those

The economic impacts of C-19 have been particularly hard on young people • Those in the 18 -24 age bracket have seen a decrease in the employment rate from 63. 5% at the start of the year to 60% in Jul-Sep, an estimated drop of 211, 000 people. • In addition, the estimated number of people unemployed aged 18 -24 has increased by 104, 000 since Feb-Apr to Jul-Sep, with other age groups seeing little change by comparison. The youth unemployment rate (18 -24 yr old’s) hit 13. 6% from Jul-Sep, compared to 4. 8% for the rest of the UK. • These figures are reinforced by broader research by the Resolution Foundation, which found the proportion of 18 -24 yr. old’s who weren’t students to have been three times more likely to have lost their main job since C-19 began. • Indeed, a fifth of all workers making use of the CJRS are under the age of 25. • 18 -24 year old’s have also been the most susceptible to pay swings, over a third have had their pay reduced since before the outbreak. • 18 -24 year old’s who are not full-time students are also disproportionately likely to not be able to work from home, primarily due to a large proportion of this group working in sectors such as retail and other service occupations. • Those looking for jobs fresh from University have also struggled, with the number of graduate jobs advertised falling by 60. 3% in the first half of 2020. • In addition, from 23 rd March-30 th June, apprenticeship starts halved compared to the previous year.

Furlough numbers have decreased substantially in recent months, although the end of this support

Furlough numbers have decreased substantially in recent months, although the end of this support could pose issues later down the line Furlough Statistics Over Time • Initially the number of employments furloughed increased quickly following the announcement of the scheme on 20 March, reaching 4. 8 million on 23 March and 6. 8 million by the end of March • Following further strong growth at the start of April the number of employments furloughed increased gradually and peaked at 8. 9 million on 8 May 2020 • After the early May peak, the number of employments furloughed decreased slowly before a fall of around 670, 000 employments between the end of May and the start of June • The number of employments that were furloughed then continued to reduce throughout June to 6. 8 million on 30 June. • Preliminary figures show that the number of employments furloughed continued to fall throughout July to 5. 1 million on 31 July and 3. 3 million on 31 August. These figures are based on incomplete data and will be revised in future releases Source: HMRC, Coronavirus Statistics, CJRS October 2020

Whilst overall furlough rates have decreased, some sectors have been hit worse than others

Whilst overall furlough rates have decreased, some sectors have been hit worse than others • The sector with the highest proportion of its workforce eligible for furlough that were actually furloughed was arts, entertainment and recreation at 33% followed by accommodation and food services sector at 27%. • In all, 50% of employers in the arts, entertainment and recreation sector were using the furlough scheme at the end of August as were 45% of employers in accommodation and food services • The wholesale and retail sector were responsible for the greatest total value of claims up to the end of August at £ 7. 4 billion. • Accommodation and food services and manufacturing were the two sectors with the next highest values of claims to date by the end of August, with £ 6. 2 billion and £ 4. 8 billion claimed respectively Employments Furloughed as of 31 st August Accommodation and food services Wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles Administrative and support services Manufacturing Professional, scientific and technical Arts, entertainment and recreation Construction Health and social work Education Transportation and storage Other Service Activities Information and communication Real estate Finance and insurance Water supply, sewerage and waste Agriculture, forestry and fishing Public administration and defence; social. . . Mining and quarrying Energy production and supply 592 800 535 100 323 900 292 500 290 200 218 400 185 700 173 600 156 400 131 200 129 500 115 700 54 300 30 100 11 600 10 000 6 000 3 000 1 600 0 200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000

2. 6 million claims have been made to the SEISS nationally, with the Construction

2. 6 million claims have been made to the SEISS nationally, with the Construction Industry dominating overall claims SEISS second grant claims • • • Between 17 August and 31 August 2020, HMRC received 2. 0 million claims for the SEISS from a total potentially eligible population of 3. 4 million. These claims totalled £ 5. 1 billion with an average award of £ 2, 500 per claimant. Proportion of total value of claims to SEISS - 31 st August 7% Transportation and storage The construction industry has the largest population of individuals who were assessed for potential eligibility with over 1. 2 million and over 1 million of these were potentially eligible to apply. By 31 August construction workers had made 693, 000 claims for SEISS totalling £ 2. 1 billion; an average of £ 3, 100 per claimant. 6% Other service activities Professional, scientific and technical activities 5% Administrative and support service activities 5% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor. . . 5% 4% Human health and social work activities Self-employed individuals in the transportation and storage sector make up 8% of the potentially eligible population and made 196, 000 claims totalling £ 373 million. Administrative and support services also make up 8% of the potentially eligible population and have made 142, 000 claims totalling £ 253 million. The highest rates of being assessed as potentially eligible for SEISS were from individuals working in the construction industry (86%) and the transportation and storage sector (82%). Lower rates of being assessed as potentially eligible for SEISS were found for individuals working in real estate activities (29%), financial and insurance activities (41%) and agriculture, forestry and fishing (45%). 42% Construction Education 3% Arts, entertainment and recreation 3% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2% Manufacturing 2% Accommodation and food service activities 2% Information and communication 1% Financial and insurance activities 1% Real estate activities 0% Public administration and defence; compulsory. . . 0% Source: HMRC, Self-Employment Income Support Scheme Statistics

Employment support schemes have largely insulated the labour market until now • • •

Employment support schemes have largely insulated the labour market until now • • • As of the 31 st of August, 23, 400 employments had been furloughed in Somerset, a significant drop from the 78, 300 employments furloughed at the end of July (a take-up rate of 30%). As of 31 st July, 25, 000 self-employed people in Somerset had claimed income support (73% of those eligible), an increase of 1, 900 since the end of May. Second-round figures of the SEISS scheme indicate that 20, 600 people in Somerset have made a claim. It has been announced that the CJRS, as well as self-employment support, will now continue until March with a review of employer contributions in January. This extension has the potential to significantly alter overall take-up rates. Furlough Take-Up Rate (August 31 st) 14% 12% 10% 8% 12% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% Claims to the SEISS scheme by district (31 st of July – 1 st Claim) 11% South Somerset 7100 Somerset West and Taunton 6700 6% Sedgemoor 4% 5200 2% 0% Mendip Sedgemoor Somerset South West and Somerset Taunton Source: HMRC, Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme Statistics 6000 UK 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Circa 906 reported redundancies as of 23 rd October, with many more at risk,

Circa 906 reported redundancies as of 23 rd October, with many more at risk, in addition to many businesses saying they plan to make more redundancies in 2020 Company Area Number of redundancies Oscar Mayer Chard (South Somerset) 860 at risk Mulberry Chilcompton (Mendip) 265 at risk Clarks Street (Mendip) 100 Relyon Wellington (SWT) 82 Swallowfield (KDC/One) Wellington (SWT) 40 Food Manufacturer Mendip 21 Leisure Business Mendip 25 Honeywell Yeovil (South Somerset) 77 Leonardo Yeovil (South Somerset) 150 Longleat Enterprises (Cheddar Gorge) Mendip 40 Shaul Bakeries LTD SWT (Taunton/Wellington), Sedgemoor (Bridgwater) 22 Results from our Business COVID-19 Impact Survey reveal 349 additional redundancies have been made since March across respondent businesses, with a further 429 planned this year. Please Note: • The above are tentative figures, with some unconfirmed/subject to ongoing consultation. • Some redundancies were already planned prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. • Some companies have been anonymised for confidentiality purposes. • Some businesses will self-report they intend to make redundancies in the future but may not necessarily make them if business conditions change.

Trading status, financial performance and business resilience have all been impacted by the pandemic

Trading status, financial performance and business resilience have all been impacted by the pandemic Businesses are re-opening in large numbers; but some sectors face bigger challenges than others. Trading Status: • The latest ONS Business Impact Survey from the period 19 th October to the 1 st of November reported 82% of businesses had been trading for more than the last two weeks across industries, 2% of businesses had started trading within the last two weeks after a pause in trading, 8% of businesses had paused trading and do not intend to restart in the next two weeks. • The arts, entertainment and recreation industry and the accommodation & food industry had the highest percentages of businesses that were temporarily closed or paused trading, at 22% and 18% respectively. Financial Performance • Across all industries of businesses currently trading, 45% experienced a decrease in their turnover compared with what is normally expected for this time of year, whilst 37% experienced no impact on their turnover. • The arts, entertainment and recreation industry (69%), accommodation and food service industry (72%), and the education industry (57%), all had 50% or more of businesses experiencing a decrease in turnover. Business Resilience • Across all industries, of businesses not permanently stopped trading, 3% had no cash reserves, 24% had less than three months’ cash reserves, with 34% having more than six months’ cash reserves. • The accommodation and food service activities industry had the highest percentage of businesses indicating they had no cash reserves, at 6%. This was followed by the arts, entertainment and recreation industry at 5%. • Regarding business survival, 11% had no or low confidence of surviving the next three months, 38% had moderate confidence, and 44% had high confidence in business survival over the next 3 months. • The accommodation and food service industry, and the manufacturing industry, had the highest percentage of businesses indicating they had no or low confidence in business survival over the next three months, at 32% and 16% respectively.

There are significant challenges for many sectors, although these impacts are varied Retail: •

There are significant challenges for many sectors, although these impacts are varied Retail: • The wholesale & retail trade has struggled markedly as a result of lockdown measures. However, Q 3 growth rates stood at 30. 7% from July to September, with output now exceeding Oct to Dec 2019 levels. The re-imposition of further lockdown restrictions however may stymie this recovery. • National retail sales data shows an increase of 0. 8% compared to July, resulting in an increase of 4% when compared to February 2020. Clothing store sales remain 15. 9% below February levels however, with non-food retailing sales 18. 2% down on the same time last year. Accommodation & Food Services: • Accommodation & Food has suffered markedly as a result of lockdown measures. However, the ‘eat out to help out’ scheme, alongside an easing of restrictions led to 63. 9% rise in output in August, although output has fallen again by 9. 8% in September. • On Exmoor, 89% of accommodation businesses had temporarily ceased all trading from responses gathered in May-June. Health & Social Care Activities • This industry grew by 8. 1% from Q 2 to Q 3, with 4. 6% growth in September as patient services continued to see increases with accident and emergency admissions nearing more normal levels. However, the industry remained 27. 3% below February 2020 levels primarily because of negative impacts from outpatients.

The manufacturing, construction and agricultural industries have also faced challenges nationally Manufacturing • Manufacturing

The manufacturing, construction and agricultural industries have also faced challenges nationally Manufacturing • Manufacturing grew by 18. 7% in Q 3, although rolling-month grow rates suggest manufacturing growth is slowing, primarily due to the manufacture of pharmaceuticals acting as a drag on overall growth rates. • Overall output in 12 out of 13 sub-sectors in manufacturing reflected strong growth levels, with 12 out of the 13 sub-sectors increasing, most notably the manufacture of transport equipment, which grew by 51. 8%, however, it is still 22. 3% below its pre-pandemic level. • Regionally, the SWMAS barometer has highlighted the challenges of the pandemic for manufacturing, with 70% reporting reduced sales turnover in the past six months, with 42% expecting further falls in the next six months. Construction • This industry grew by 2. 9% in September, being the fifth consecutive month of growth, although this is the lowest monthly growth since April. The industry’s output level remained 7. 3% below the February 2020 level. • Quarterly construction output grew by a record 41. 7% in Q 3 compared to Q 2. The main contributor to this increase was new housing, in particular private new housing, which recovered after record low output in April 2020. Agriculture • Agriculture grew by 0. 02% in July, 0. 01% in August and saw no growth in September. • Many farmers have been unable to access grants due to agricultural property not being rateable, with Government loan schemes often bumping up against state aid restrictions. Furthermore, agriculture is likely to see a host of new regulatory requirements post-Britain’s EU exit on January 1 st.

The economy is beginning to show signs of recovery, but the pace of recovery

The economy is beginning to show signs of recovery, but the pace of recovery is predicted to be slow • This report highlights UK economy grew by 17% over the summer months as restrictions were eased and consumer spending remained strong. • Despite this, the forecast estimates only 1% growth over the final quarter of 2020, with 6% growth in 2021 and 2. 9% in 2022, with the economy not fully recovering until 2023. • The UK’s planned exit from the EU compounds this pessimism, with growth in 2021 forecast at 4. 8% compared to 6% if no deal is agreed. • A significant increase in unemployment is likely, with the new job support scheme not as generous as the previous furlough scheme, with unemployment expected to peak at 7. 7% in mid-2021 before stabilising.

Forecasts suggest significant loss of output and jobs in 2020, with growth and employment

Forecasts suggest significant loss of output and jobs in 2020, with growth and employment recovery likely to fall between baseline and downside scenarios Baseline Headline Figures Oxford Economics baseline forecast: • An 8% contraction in Somerset’s GVA in 2020, along with 10, 000 job losses, with unemployment peaking at 5%. • A rise of 7. 4% GVA and 2. 5% in employment by 2021. Downside Headline Figures Oxford Economics downside forecast: • A 13% contraction in Somerset’s GVA in 2020, along with 13, 300 job losses, with unemployment peaking at 7. 9% in 2021. • Crucially, Somerset’s employment level would not return to pre-crisis levels until 2024, with GVA not returning to the same level until 2027. Somerset’s forecasted GVA, multiple scenarios GVA (£m, 2016 prices) 13 000 Forecast 12 500 12 000 11 500 11 000 10 500 10 000 9 500 9 000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Baseline 2020 2021 2022 Downside 2023 2024 2025 Upside Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Somerset Unemployment, Baseline Forecast ILO unemployment rate (% of the labour force) ILO unemployment (000 s) 16 8 Forecast 14 7 12 6 10 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 ILO unemployment (000 s) Source: ONS, Oxford Economics 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 ILO unemployment rate (% of the labour force) 2025

Forecasts suggest significant loss of output and jobs in 2020, with recovery likely to

Forecasts suggest significant loss of output and jobs in 2020, with recovery likely to be significantly delayed due to re-imposition of lockdown restrictions Change in jobs (000 s) Human health & social work Accommodation & food Sector Analysis - Baseline Administrative services • Accommodation & Food sector projected to lose a substantial 3500 jobs in 2020 compared to Professional services 2019. The arts, entertainment and recreation Arts, entertainment & recreation industry is forecast to lose 1500 jobs in 2020 Education • Manufacturing is forecast to lose 2000 jobs in Transport & storage 2020, losing 10. 3% of total jobs by 2025. Information & communication • In contrast, human health & social work jobs Other services are forecast to grow by 1000 in 2020, and Real estate increasing by 7. 6% by 2025, the biggest of any Construction industry. Public administration Sector Analysis - Downside Water supply In the downside scenario, the wholesale & retail sector would have 1100 fewer workers by 2025. Finance & insurance • Manufacturing would see a cumulative loss of Utilities 4100 workers by 2025, with construction losing Extraction 700 jobs. Wholesale & retail trade • Similarly, agriculture is forecast to lose 700 jobs Agriculture in this downside scenario. Manufacturing • Some industries are anticipated to see growth however, with the health & social care industry -5 growing by 3400 jobs up to 2025. Source: ONS, Oxford Economics • A lot has changed, but to the extent this work is still useful, the ‘downside scenario’ looks more likely (uncertainty remains over COVID and EU Exit). Baseline Downside Upside -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Forecasted change to jobs from 2020 -5, multiple scenarios 4

Intelligence pertaining to the UK’s planned exit from the EU is patchy and has

Intelligence pertaining to the UK’s planned exit from the EU is patchy and has largely been overshadowed by COVID-19. Significant concerns exist however. • The significant and ongoing economic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will make discerning the discrete impacts of the UK’s exit from the EU very difficult. • Headline growth figures in 2021 will still be reflecting the ‘bounceback’ from the enforced economic contraction necessary in 2020. • In the long-term however, forecasts suggest a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, would reduce UK GDP by 8% over a decade. This impact would be felt as a persistent and long-lasting reduction in overall growth levels. Sectoral Implications: • The likely impacts of Brexit could be very different to the sectors that have suffered as a result of C-19. • Some analyses have suggested significant contractions in manufacturing (particularly the automotive sector), services (particularly in financial services) and agri-food. • In Somerset, whilst the projected contraction in manufacturing is concerning, the aerospace sector could remain relatively protected from tariff barriers due to special exemptions. Regulatory alignment with new aviation safety guidelines however could increase costs. • The impacts of a new ‘points-based’ immigration could also be significant. Fears of labour shortages in the agricultural sector have been voiced by the NFU, in addition to being raised in the foodmanufacturing sector. • Elsewhere, the FSB have raised concerns that Brexit implications are simply not on SME’s primary list of concerns, with cash buffers already being used up to deal with the impacts of the pandemic. Regional Forecast: • The South West fairly relatively well in the modelled white paper scenario published by the Government in 2018. The paper estimates a 7. 2% reduction in GVA over 15 years, the best of any region outside of London and the South East.

Job postings fell dramatically in Somerset, but are now increasing • Job posting fell

Job postings fell dramatically in Somerset, but are now increasing • Job posting fell by 18% from March to April, with recent months showing a fairly rapid recovery in job posting activity. • There were 9304 ‘unique’ postings in Somerset in September, a higher rate than the pre-pandemic high of 5984, equating to an increase of 86% since April’s low in job posting. • Throughout this period, demand for workers in the health & social care industry has remained consistently strong. • Unique postings in September were predominantly for Nurses (818) and care workers and home carers (611). • Please Note: Job postings are a ‘noisy’ but useful/timely indicator of labour demand in the economy, whereas more rigorous statistical data is less quickly available. In addition, some postings may be ‘double counted’ thereby inflating posting figures Top Posted Occupations in October 1000 818 800 611 600 400 260 221 200 210 208 201 189 180 149 0 Nurses Care workers and home carers Elementary Storage Occupations Nursing auxillaries and assisstants Medical Practioners Metal working production Van Drivers Cleaners and Domestics Science, Engineering, Production Technicans Sales accounts and business development managers Unique Postings Trend in Somerset Source: Emsi Labour Market Analytics

Job types and skills most in demand in Somerset • • • Top posted

Job types and skills most in demand in Somerset • • • Top posted job titles in October were family support workers, with other healthcare related jobs also in strong demand, such as registered nurses & personal care assistants. Unsurprisingly therefore, nursing & mental health featured strongly in ‘hard skills’ referenced in job adverts. In regard to ‘soft’ skills referenced in job adverts, 'communications’, ‘management’ and ‘customer service' were highly sought after. Top Posted Job Titles in October (Unique Postings) 300 250 200 150 244 156 110 100 96 84 82 72 71 66 59 50 0 Family Support Workers HGV/LGV Drivers Registered Nurses Personal Care Assistants Mechanical Engineers Home Care Social Workers Production Operators Vehicle Technicians Bathroom Cleaners Health Practitioners Top Hard Skills (in September) Nursing Personal Care Mental Health Auditing Learning Disabilities Accounting Warehousing Risk Analysis Key Performance Indicators Source: Emsi Labour Market Analytics Postings containing skill 453 381 374 343 299 275 261 235 210 Top Soft Skills (September) Communications Management Customer Service Enthusiasm Sales Planning Self-Motivation Leadership Detail Oriented Innovation Postings Containing Skill 1974 1397 1120 848 741 608 546 543 528 476

Labour Market Implications for Recovery Actions needed: • Supporting those unemployed back into work,

Labour Market Implications for Recovery Actions needed: • Supporting those unemployed back into work, either through redeployment or reskilling/training. • Supporting those on furlough back into employment, either by helping them return to current jobs, re-skilling/training within current organisations into new roles. Against the backdrop of: • A gradually re-emerging economy, wherein economic output is likely to recover more quickly than employment levels, but also, one in which we have moved from years of having a tight labour market (labour demand out-stripping supply) to one in which supply is outstripping demand. • A more rapidly restructuring economy, wherein some sectors prove more resilient and ‘recoverable’ than others, and structural unemployment (the mismatch between skills supply and demand) is likely to be hastened, and re-skilling/training is going to be even more important. • Proximity to a fixed physical workspace is likely to become both more and less important to recruitment, where some jobs will continue to require attendance at sites and premises whilst others may move towards home working as a viable option. This dynamic is likely to have consequences for the matching of local skills supply and demand.