Economic Booms and Apollostyle Exploration Bruce Cordell Ph
Economic Booms and Apollo-style Exploration Bruce Cordell, Ph. D. 2011. 5. 19 21 st. Century. Waves. com
JFK’s 50 th Moon Anniversary May 25, 1961: “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth. Freeman Dyson, ISDC 2010: ‘Why have we been stuck in LEO for 40 Years? ’
Our Approach is Different Long-Term Empirical Global
Preview • Apollo, the post-Apollo letdown, and the last 200 yrs of great explorations explained in terms of “critical states” • Early Self-Sufficiency in deep space is essential – Maslow Windows close quickly • Prosperity, Technology are the triggers… – Ebullience is the driver • Our Window opens ~2015; next opens ~2071 – Some urgency
Introduction
The Patterns Over the last 200+ years… Twice-Per-Century Clusters of these exist: • Great Explorations (e. g. , Lewis and Clark) • Macro-Engineering Projects (e. g. , Panama Canal) • Major Wars (e. g. , World War I)
Standard Chartered Bank’s “Super-Cycles”
Why Should NASA Care? • A Framework for long-range planning and specific Forecast Models • A Marketing Theme – Space Exploration is the most recent manifestation of the tradition of Great Explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; And, they are always the result of economic booms • A Morale Boost -- Timing is based on patterns (i. e. , Maslow Windows) that are observed over the last 200+ years
Disney and Von Braun The 1960 s were transformative…
The Way We Were…
The Way We Will Be
The Maslow Window Economic Model
It’s 1987. Why the smiles?
Great Exploration Events and MEPs: Definitions Great Exploration Events are recognized by: 1. 2. 3. Exploration of significantly new geographical sites An international audience attracted by competition, nationalism, and/or danger Often, the use of state-of-the-art technology Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) are recognized by: 1. 2. 3. Use of state-of-the-art technology, that is often improved High cost ($ Multi B) and very large physical size Ability to satisfy intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature, and to be highly inspiring (in addition to any practical purpose)
Compelling Clusters Energy Peaks 1801 Great Explorations Lewis & Clark/ N. America Macro-Engineering None Projects (MEP) Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ War of 1812 1857 1913 1969 Livingstone/ Africa Peary/ Polar Apollo/ Moon Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo Civil War W. W. I Vietnam/ Cold War
The 56 Yr Energy/Boom Cycle From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64. Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.
The “Maslow Window” Model • Rhythmic, twice-per-century economic booms occur (“Super-Cycle”) • Widespread affluence (the “Great Prosperity”) • Many ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy (“ebullience”); GEs and MEPs supported • Some do not ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy (“animal spirits”)
Maslow Windows as “Critical States”
Are Maslow Windows Self Organized Criticality Phenomena? • Punctuated Equilibria • “Wars, like forest fires, are SOC processes. ” (GE & MEP still TBD) • Obey Bak’s Gap Equation – Agent-based model • Large changes from small triggers – “Avalanches”
Are Maslow Windows Predictable? Near-Critical Potential Signatures Include: • • Financial Panics; e. g. , Panics of 2008, 1893… Great Recessions; Great Recessions of 2008 -10, 1890 s… Major Economic Booms; e. g. , 1899, 2012 (? )… Military Conflicts; e. g. , Cuban Missile Crisis, Spanish. American War…
The 1960 s As a “Critical State” • • • Sputnik (1957) Cuban Missile Crisis Peace Corps Apollo Moon Program Civil Rights Movement Vietnam Yale Sociologist Gary Brewer: During Apollo, NASA was “a perfect place. ”
A Maslow Case Study: 1890 -1913
Forecasts and Issues
Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07
A Few Forecasts: 2015 - 2025 • The Great Boom of 2015 – Required trigger for Maslow Window • A Great Exploration in Space – “Sputnik-like” competitors? – A “Grand Alliance for Space”? • A Primary MEP, w Secondary MEPs – E. g. , manned Mars, solar power, space tourism – Cost ~ 10 x Apollo • A Major 2020 s War – An early war could eliminate GE/MEP events.
What Explorations Will Work? • A Great Exploration, e. g. , human Mars • Program Culminates by 2025 or before • Early Self-Sufficiency in deep space Candidates Zubrin Space. X Mars Aldrin; Russia/China Phobos Davies 1 -Way Mars
Who’s the Next Space President?
Summary • 2015 -2025: analog of the transformative 1960 s/1900 s “critical states” • The key: early self-sufficiency in deep space – because support ends abruptly • One wildcard: timing of projected major war in 2020 s • After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081. Can Humanity Afford to Wait?
Contact Dr. Bruce Cordell Web: 21 stcenturywaves. com Email: Bruce@21 st. Century. Waves. com Bio: http: //21 st. Century. Waves. com/about-us/
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