Ecological Footprints implications for solving the most wicked

Ecological Footprints: implications for solving the most “wicked problem” of our time Dr John Tibby Senior Lecturer © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

Structure Questions for you… Trends in global climate and carbon emissions Which countries emit the most? What is the risk? What are the solutions? • Global • Australia

Some “odd” questions to start… When was the last Ice Age? When did it finish? How much did The Earth warm? 3300 m 2100 m 1250 m 900 m Image source: www. strangesounds. org

If Tony Abbott is Prime Minister after 7 th September what is the first thing he’ll do? Why? Perhaps does not understand “tragedy of the commons”, “the precautionary principle” and “ecological footprints” Image source: www. sbs. com. au

Concept: “Tragedy of the Commons” Hardin, G. 1968. A biologist wrote “The Tragedy of the Commons” in journal the Science. Argued that in absence of private property rights, environment suffers Occurs: atmosphere and aquatic (esp. marine) environments

IPCC summary of projected warming 1. 8 -4. 0°C end of century (best estimate) Range: 1. 1 -6. 4°C 2°C: “dangerous” source: IPCC (2007)

Avoiding “dangerous” climate change Mandated role of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and IPCC Definitions vary according to different organisations How can it be avoided?

CO 2 rates of change In the industrial period… • • • First 50 ppm increase: took > 200 years Second 50 ppm increase: took 30 years (~1970 to 2000) 2000 -2010: 20 ppm increase http: //www. esrl. noaa. gov/

Current pattern of global emissions Conclusion: • Solutions need to be multi-faceted • No “silver bullet” GHG emissions by sector, 2004 source: IPCC WG 3

What is a carbon footprint? Absolute amount person Historical or accumulated

What countries emit? http: //www. epa. gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg. html

Total emissions Image source: http: //image. guardian. co. uk/sysfiles/Guardian/documents/2011/02/10/Carbon. Web. pdf

Tonnes CO 2 person/year Qatar: 36. 9 tonnes United States: 17. 3 tonnes Australia: 17. 0 tonnes Russia: 11. 6 tonnes Germany: 9. 3 tonnes UK: 7. 8 tonnes China: 5. 4 tonnes World average: 4. 5 tonnes India: 1. 4 tonnes Africa average: 0. 9 tonnes Ethiopia: 0. 1 tonnes From: Energy Information Association (US) www. eia. gov/

Consumption footprints (per capita): 2008 An integrated measure obtained by removing exports but including imports Belgium 21. 9 United States of America 20. 2 Ireland 16. 2 Finland 15. 1 Australia 13. 8 United Kingdom 11. 5 China 4. 3 Brazil 2. 1 India 1. 3 Nigeria 0. 5 Malawi 0. 2 http: //images. china. cn/ Data source: www. pnas. org/content/suppl/2011/04/20/1006388108. DCSupplemental/sapp. pdf

Past emissions (1900 -2004) Nation United States Million tonnes CO 2 314772 Russia 89688 China 89243 Germany 73626 United Kingdom 55164 Japan 42696 France 28515 India 25054 Canada 23669 Ukraine 22841 Poland 21263 Italy 17642 South Africa 13242 Australia From: http: //www. wri. org 11929

From IPCC WG III “The challenge – an absolute reduction of global GHG emissions – is daunting. It presupposes a reduction of energy and carbon intensities at a faster rate than income and population growth taken together (p. 109)” Source: IPPC wg 3

Last quiz question… What is current concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere?

Russian roulette and the Earth’s climate Models vary Replicated science difficult with a planet Even the simplest of measures, “climate sensitivity” (i. e. amount of global warming when C 02 doubled) is subject of debate Source: IPPC wg 3

Russian roulette and the Earth’s climate Final temp CO 2 -e best estimate (ppm) CO 2 -e 80% confidence (ppm) 2. O°C 441 378 3. O°C 556 441 4. O°C 701 515 Source: IPPC wg 3 Conclusion: Precautionary principle demands very strong immediate reductions CO 2 -e=Carbon dioxide equivalent (includes other gases)

Peak emissions: when needed? Source: IPPC wg 3

Simplified ideas in next slides. . Summary of what action needed to achieve 2 or 3ºC warming Realise there is considerable variation in the models (see table)

A simplification: 2°C 450 ppm CO 2 -e • requires “dramatic and immediate changes in global emissions” • discussed at Bali, basis for 25 -40% reduction suggestion • Needs: peak CO 2: 2010 falling to 2000 levels by 2020 half 2000 levels by 2050 1/4 2000 levels by 2100 Stronger than Kyoto Protocol Based on Garnaut, 2008

A simplification: 3°C 550 ppm CO 2 -e “much higher risks of dangerous climate change” peak 2030 (at absolute latest) 2000 levels by 2050 (at absolute latest) Even this only happens with “only urgent, large, and effective global policy change” Based on Garnaut, 2008

The current global agreement: The Kyoto Protocol Applies precautionary principle • absence of scientific certainty not sufficient to justify a lack of action Implement sustainable development principles 165 signatories (Dec 2006). US signed but not ratified

The Kyoto Protocol in this context “Common but differentiated responsibilities” It requires 38 participating developed countries to cut their emissions of gases by an average of 5. 2% below their 1990 levels by 2012. Developing countries were excluded. ○ The U. S. did not sign, but California and Maine are participating. ○ U. S. did not sign because developing countries such as China, India and Brazil were excluded.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: a framework World Development Reactive Regionalization Global Orchestration Order from Strength Techno. Garden Adapting Mosaic Proactive Environmental Management Globalization

Why global co-operation needed Link between economic output, development and energy use Sub-Saharan Africa, electrification to only 23% of population Sth Asia: 41% Energy growth demand 1971 -2003

Australia’s emissions ~ 550 million tonnes/year

Opportunities for Australia Apparently significant opportunities for a large, hot, flat sparsely populated nation Include: • solar 2 -3 decades away? • geothermal limited amount of power • land-use change • also of course nuclear and carbon capture 1 dot=1000 people, www. soe. gov. au (2001)

Trends in Australia: 1990 -2006 Stationary energy: increased 40% Transport: increased 27% Industry: increased 18% Land-use: decreased 54% (was 24% of emissions in 1990) Total emissions growth: 4%

Australia Government’s Clean Energy Future At 2020 reduce emissions by 5% of 2000 • 23% of expected growth • 80% by 2050 Included: Carbon Price. . . Approx. 500 business Price of $23 tonne on carbon • 2. 5%/year increase until 2015 + “carbon farming”

A transformation of the environment? Garnaut Review (2008, final report) argued that revegetation of (semi) arid lands might allow uptake of 250 million tonnes carbon • half Australia’s emissions • $2. 5 Billion/year to rural Australia @ $20/tonne carbon http: //www. daff. gov. au/ www. hreoc. gov. au

Conclusion: ecological footprint The ecological footprint of Australia (and other developed nations) has been substantial and continues to grow This knowledge underpins global solutions that emphasise shared responsibility Adaptation to climate change is going to be a large part of our lives

References Garnaut review: www. garnautreview. org. au Pacala, S. and Socolow, R. 2004. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Science 305: 968972. Parry M. 2009. Closing the loop between mitigation, impacts and adaptation. Climatic Change 96: 23 -27. Mackey, B. G. , Keith, H. , Berry, S. L. and Lindenmayer, D. B. 2008. Green carbon : the role of natural forests in carbon storage. Part 1, A green carbon account of Australia’s south-eastern Eucalypt forest, and policy implications. Canberra, ANU E Press. Trenberth K. and Dai A. (2007) Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering Geophysical Research Letters. L 15702, doi: 10. 1029/2007 GL 030524 Witze, A. 2009. Geoengineering schemes under scrutiny. Nature news, see: http: //www. nature. com/news/2009/090807/full/news. 2009. 810. html