ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF NAEDEX 2012

ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Overview: l Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities l Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring l Research topics related to satellite observations NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Main areas of activity at ECMWF Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Environmental monitoring and modelling NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Historical reanalysis for climate research ECMWF

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) HIRES + ENS Monthly NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Seasonal ECMWF

Environmental monitoring and modelling Estimating greenhouse gas concentration and flux inversion Monitoring and forecasting trajectory of dust events NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Monitoring and forecasting trajectory of volcanic events ECMWF

Re-analysis for climate research Trend analysis of climate parameters Improved climatology for process studies NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh Cleansed historical observation data sets ECMWF

Operational NWP NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

The forecast model NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Grid structure of the Global operational NWP forecast model: (time step = 10 mins) 91 levels in the vertical (surface to 0. 01 h. Pa) 137 levels in the vertical T 1279 spectral resolution (~16 km grid point spacing) (surface to 0. 01 h. Pa) NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Evolution of ECMWF forecast skill ~210 km ~125 km ~63 km ~39 km NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ~25 km ~16 km ECMWF

The Assimilation System NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Operational 4 D-Var Algorithm NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Operational 4 D-Var Algorithm Flow dependent errors from EDA system VARBC term to correct observation bias Weak constraint term to correct model bias NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Overview of data usage NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Ground based / launched observations NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Overview of data usage SYNOP/SHIP/METAR: Meteorological/aeronautical land surface weather stations (2 m-temperature, dew-point temperature, 10 m-wind) BUOYS: Moored buoys (TAO, PIRATA) Drifters TEMP/TEMPSHIP/DROPSONDES: Radiosondes ASAPs (commercial ships replacing stationary weather ships) Dropsondes released from aircrafts (NOAA, Met Office, tropical cyclones, experimental field campaigns, e. g. , FASTEX, NORPEX) PROFILERS: UHF/VHF Doppler radars (Europe, US, Japan) Now within Var. BC! Aircraft: AIREPS (manual reports from pilots) AMDARs, ACARs, etc. (automated readings) NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Satellite Observations NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Overview of data usage 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 POES ENVISAT CNOFS Megha Tropiques JASON-1/2/3 GMS/MTSAT AMV GOES Rad ADM Aeolus 2000 2001 2002 2003 Suomi-NPP COSMIC SAC-C AQUA Oceansat FY-2 C/D AMV GMS/MTSAT Rad GOSAT 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 DMSP COSMIC-2 TERRASAR-X AURA HY-2 A TERRA/AQUA AMV Cryosat Sentinel 1 NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 2009 2010 2011 2012 METOP CHAMP GCOM-W/C FY-3 A/B METEOSAT AMV AVHRR AMV SMOS Sentinel 3 2014 2015 2016 ERS-1/2 GRACE TRMM Quik. SCAT GOES AMV METEOSAT Rad Earth. CARE Sentinel 5 p ECMWF

Overview of data usage Level-1 radiances AMSU-A, ATMS, MHS, MWTS, MWHS, HIRS, IASI, AIRS, Cr. IS, SEVIRI, MTSAT, GOES, SSMIS, TMI, SMOS, Wind. Sat Level-1. 5 products Level-2 products GRAS, GRACE, CNOFS, COSMIC, TERRASAR-X, ASCAT, OSCAT Research Cloud. Sat, Calipso NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh SBUV, OMI, GOME 2 MLS, SEVIRI, GOES, MTSAT, FY, JASON RA, ENVISAT RA, MERIS, SCIA Level-2* products SST / SNOW / ICE ECMWF

Overview of data usage Radiances AMSU-A on NOAA-15/18/19, AQUA, Metop-A+B, ATMS on Suomi-NPP (from Sept 2012) AMSU-B/MHS on NOAA-19, Metop-A+B SSMIS on F-17, TMI on TRMM, Windsat on Coriolis HIRS on NOAA-17/19, Metop-A AIRS on AQUA, IASI on Metop-A, Cr. IS on Suomi-NPP MVIRI on Meteosat-7, SEVIRI on Meteosat-9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2 imagers SMOS imager Bending angles COSMIC-1, GRAS on Metop, GRACE-A, Terrasar-X, CNOFS Ozone SBUV on NOAA-17/18, OMI on Aura, AIRS, IASI, HIRS Atmospheric Motion Vectors Meteosat-7/9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2, MODIS on Terra/Aqua. FY 2 Sea surface parameters Near-surface wind speed from ASCAT on Metop-A, OSCAT on Ocean. Sat Significant wave height from Jason altimeters NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/ NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/ NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring Out of threshold anomalies trigger alerts on web site and launch emails to key personnel prompting action NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 24 ECMWF

New instruments: FY 3 and Suomi-NPP Cr. IS 14µm MWTS Ch. 3 ATMS Ch. 9 NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh MWHS Ch. 4 ECMWF

R+D activities relevant to NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

1. Hyperspectral IR (Mc. Nally/Matricardi/Eresmaa) • • New sensors: Cr. IS Principal component assimilation Improved cloud screening Use of SW and O 3 channels NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 27 ECMWF

2. Microwave sounders (Bell/Lu/Di. Tomaso/Eresmaa/Bormann/English) • • Characterisation of bandpass drift in existing sensors Improved microwave surface emissivity New sensors: ATMS, FY 3 Observation errors NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 28 ECMWF

3. Microwave Imagers (Bell/Geer/Baordo/English) • All sky assimilation including AMSU-A channel 4 NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 29 ECMWF

4. Satellite winds and Geo radiances (Hernandez/Bormann/Salonen/Lupu) • AMV error model and understanding • AMV QC • All sky Geo Radiances • Observing model error growth with Geo radiances NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

5. GPSRO (Healy/Harnisch) EDA analysis spread for temperature at 100 h. Pa Tropics N. Hem S. Hem • • Tangent point drift EDA experiments: sensitivity to number of observations Surface pressure Contributions to ROM SAF (ROPP) NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 31 ECMWF

6. Ozone (Dragani) Ops, 2010 - 2011 Ops, 2011 - 2012 +MIPAS Reference MLS +IR/O 3 SBUV(21), 2011 – 2012 No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012 +SBUV 21 NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

7. Radar and lidar (Janiskova/Di. Michele/Martins) • • Preparing for Earth. CARE using Cloud. Sat and Calipso Testing forward operator and adjoint assimilation code Validating model clouds and physical parameterisations Choices of observation error, QC and bias correction NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF

Summary • Data volumes / instruments continue to increase • Automated alert system now fully operational • Early Cr. IS and ATMS results are encouraging • Loss of ENVISAT was a major event, especially for ocean and ozone analysis • Principal component assimilation has been demonstrated for cloud-free scenes • FY 3 characterisation led to very valuable reanalysis of errors in MSU and AMSU-A data record • EDA techniques used to try to estimate sensitivity of system to number of GPSRO observations NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF