ECMWF GEOGlows and support for developing countries Christel

ECMWF, GEOGlows, and support for developing countries Christel Prudhomme / Fredrik Wetterhall / Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF Side Event: and the Harmonization of GEO Water Activities

Emergency Management Copernicus Emergency Management Service Overview 6 services use Earth Observation data to deliver … Sentinels & Contributing Satellite Missions Source: ESA … added value products In-situ measurements

Copernicus Emergency Management Service Overview Emergency Management Flood Awareness Systems On-demand Mapping Flood monitoring & forecasting dis any as 24/7 on-demand fast te r provision of geospatial Rapid Mapping information Risk and Recovery Mapping On-demand GI supporting prevention, preparedness, disaster risk reduction, reconstruction, recovery Forest Fire Information Systems Near real-time & historical information on forest fires & forest fire regimes

Flood Awareness Systems Emergency Management • • • Need: lack of coherent flood information and coordination in Europe for trans-national flood events, e. g. during Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 Aim: European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) provides added value, trans-national flood early warning information to EC civil protection and national authorities. JRC : started development in 2003 - since September 2012 fully operational as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Users: European civil protection, national hydro-met authorities Expansion to global scale is ongoing => Global Flood Awareness System (Glo. FAS) www. globalfloods. eu

Global Flood Awareness System Mission/Objectives and Goals Mission Glo. FAS mission is to deliver probabilistic, early flood warnings on a global scale using the best weather prediction tools available Objectives Deliver a 24/7 service Support national and international organizations with forecast, data and knowledge Goal Serve stakeholders with useful and timely information on upcoming floods GEOGLOWS and the Harmonization of GEO Water Activities

Why Glo. FAS? Early warning for preparation of aid assistance Complement National/regional services World-wide comparable information Knowledge transfer & exchange Support international organisations Improved data sharing 6

Global Flood Awareness System Geographical Scope Methodology Ø Ensemble hydrographs • Showing discharge and return period • Indicating severity threshold exceedance Ø Persistence plots • Indicate forecast “jumpiness” Ø Freely available after registration Project Governance Structure Started as collaboration product between the JRC and ECMWF Now integral part of COPERNICUS-EMS Development in collaboration with several partners GEOGLOWS and the Harmonization of GEO Water Activities

Global Flood Awareness System Significant achievements in 2016 -2017 Sub-seasonal and seasonal lead-time extension Glo. FAS will now be extended up to 30 days using ECMWF’s extended-range forecast Seasonal forecast will be launched in November 2017 Fully operational Glo. FAS will go fully operational in November 2017 Capacity building and collaborations Regional training of hydrologists and meteorologists organised by RIMES and UN-ESCAP in Thailand 2016 Collaboration with ‘Forecast-based Financing’ Red Cross Pilot Projects GEOGLOWS and the Harmonization of GEO Water Activities

Glo. FAS Case Study: 2017 August floods India/Nepal/Bangladesh • Very early indication of the flood 3 -4 weeks in advance Observed flood peak (16 August) Bangladesh Record Danger Observed water level October 29, 2014 Provided by FFWC (Hossain Sazzad)

Global Flood Awareness System Plans for cross SBA linkages and SDG support Contributions to SDGs • Good health and wellbeing – Forecasts trigger humanitarian aid • Clean water and sanitation – Seasonal forecasts of low-flow aid planning of water resources • Clean energy – Projects with water power production companies Challenges and Issues: • Collaboration is essential to ensure that Glo. FAS development is in line with user needs • Data needed for better calibration of the model GEOGLOWS and the Harmonization of GEO Water Activities

Thank You http: //www. globalfloods. eu info@globalfloods. eu Ervin Zsoter Fredrik Wetterhall GEOGLOWS and the Harmonization of GEO Water Activities