East Bay Community Energy Local Development Business Plan
East Bay Community Energy Local Development Business Plan Solar Siting Survey Overview Webinar LDBP Project Team: November 30, 2017 Special Advisors: Betony Jones & Gary Calderon
Overview of Solar Siting Survey (SSS) for EBCE Craig Lewis Executive Director Clean Coalition Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 30 November 2017
SSS size the Wholesale DG market segment Project Size Central Generation Serves Remote Loads 50+ MW Wholesale DG Serves Local Loads 500 k. W Retail DG Serves Onsite Loads 5 k. W Behind the Meter Distribution Grid Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now Transmission Grid 3
Wholesale DG drove huge solar use in Germany Solar Markets: Germany vs. California (2002 -2012) 35 000 30 000 Cumulative MW 25 000 20 000 California Germany 15 000 10 000 5 000 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: CPUC, CEC, SEIA and German equivalents. Germany deployed over 10 times more solar than California in the decade from 2002 — despite California having 70% better solar resource. Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 4
The majority of German solar is local solar German Solar Capacity Installed through 2012 26% 2 000 23. 25% 1 800 22. 5% 19% 1 600 1 400 MW 1 200 1 000 800 9. 25% 600 400 200 up to 10 k. W 10 to 30 k. W 30 to 100 k. W to 1 MW over 1 MW Source: Paul Gipe, March 2012 Germany’s solar deployments are almost entirely sub-2 MW projects on builtenvironments and interconnected to the distribution grid (not behind-the-meter). Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 5
German rooftop solar is 4 to 6 cents/k. Wh today Project Size Euros/k. Wh USD/k. Wh California Effective Rate $/k. Wh Under 10 k. W 0. 1270 0. 1359 0. 0628 10 k. W to 40 k. W 0. 1236 0. 1323 0. 0611 40. 1 k. W to 750 k. W 0. 1109 0. 1187 0. 0548 Other projects up to 750 k. W* 0. 0891 0. 0953 0. 0440 Conversion rate for Euros to Dollars is € 1: $1. 07. California’s effective rate is reduced 40% due to tax incentives and then an additional 33% due to the superior solar resource. Replicating German scale and efficiencies would yield rooftop solar today at only between 4 and 6 cents/k. Wh to California ratepayers. * For projects that are not sited on residential structures or sound barriers. Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 6
Germany’s FIT enhances energy democracy Source: Germany Energy Transition Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 7
Solar Siting Survey deliverables Searchable spreadsheet including detailed results and linking to the interactive maps Interactive maps in the form of Google Earth. kml files with icons marking structures and aggregations with details available in pop-up windows Google Map versions are also made available Summary report of key findings and methodology Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 8
Summary of key findings Over 650 MW of technical solar siting potential was found on built environments in the projected EBCE service territory that can support at least 1 MW sized projects Note that the technical solar siting potential will be reduced by constraints that were not considered like structures that cannot support extra weight without significant upgrades and grid bottlenecks that would result in excessive solar curtailment (or require time-shifting dispatchability via energy storage) 30% of the total comes from parking lots and parking garages Extrapolations to lower minimum project sizes: 1. 2 GW minimum total potential for projects sized at least 500 k. W 2 GW minimum total potential for projects of at least 100 k. W Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 9
SSS interactive map: Alameda County Overview Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 10
SSS interactive map: Marina Square with ICA Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 11
Solar siting capacity by site count Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 12
Thank you The Draft EBCE LDBP Solar Siting Survey Report is posted for public review and comment at: http: //ebce. org/local-development-business-plan/ The deadline for submitting comments is: December 8, 2017 LDBP Project Team: Special Advisors: Betony Jones & Gary Calderon
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