EarthSun System Division And The Vision for Space

Earth-Sun System Division And The Vision for Space Exploration Dick Fisher (right) Director (acting) Earth Sun Systems Division NASA HQ 19 Oct 2005 1

EARTH SUN SYSTEM DIVISION FLIGHT PROGRAMS SCIENCE MISSION DIRECTORATE Earth Systematic (ES) ØGlory ØLDCM ØGPM ØNPP ØAura ØAqua ØTerra ØICESat ØSORCE ØEOSDIS Focused Physical Oceanography Living With a Star (LWS) Ø Solar Dynamics Observatory Ø Space Environment Testbeds Ø Radiation Belt Storm Probe Solar Terrestrial Probe (STP) Ø TIMED Ø Stereo Ø Solar B Ø MMS GOES Ø GOES-R Ø GOES N-P Ø OSTM Ø ACRIMSAT Ø Jason Focused Atmos. Science Mission Ø SAGE III Suborbital Ø Aircraft Ø UAV Ø Sounding Rocket POES Explorers Ø GALEX (SMEX-7) (U) Ø AIM (SMEX-9) (ESS) Ø Swift (Midex-3) (U) Ø THEMIS (Midex-5) (ESS) Ø WISE (Midex-6) (U) Ø TWINS (MO-2) (ESS) Ø CINDI (MO-3) (ESS) Ø ASTRO-E 2 (MO-4) (U) Ø EUSO (MO-5) (U) Ø IBEX (SMEX-10) (ESS) Ø Nu. STAR (SMEX-11) (U) Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) Ø CALIPSO Ø Cloud. Sat Ø OCO Ø Aquarius Ø Hydros Ø NOAA-N’ 5 GO Ø L 1 Decomission List Ø ERBS Ø UARS ØSOHO ØACE Ø Near Earth ØTRACE ØRHESSI ØFAST ØPOLAR ØWIND ØIMAGE ØCLUSTE R Ø Deep Space ØUlysses ØVoyager I & II 2

Response of the Earth Sun System Division to new directions For NASA 1. Craft a strategic Research Plan that achieves high priority national scientific goals and optimally supports the Vision for Exploration (ROADMAP) 3

Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap: Knowledge for Exploration Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the • Sun and its effects on • Earth, • the solar system, • the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and • demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems 4

Approach to Identify Priority Science Targets • Predictive capability for safe and productive exploration requires full understanding of a complex system of disparate systems • Priority goals enable significant progress in three essential areas: Understanding, Exploration, and Discovery • For example, discovery of near-Sun processes by Solar Probe provides transformational knowledge of the source of space weather enabling explorers to work safely and productively beyond Earth's magnetic shield 5

External and Internal Factors • We are poised to transform knowledge and provide predictive understanding of the SSSC system • Our technological society needs space weather knowledge to function efficiently • Human beings require space weather predictions to work safely and productively in space 6

Nature of the Challenge § A quantitative, predictive understanding of a complex system of systems § Microphysical processes regulate global & interplanetary structures § Multi-constituent plasmas and complex photochemistry § Non-linear dynamic responses Solar CME engulfing the Earth: http: //sun. stanford. edu/roadmap/New. Zoom 2. mov § Integration and synthesis of multi-point observations § Data assimilative models & theory § Interdisciplinary communities and tools 7

We Have Already Begun! Space Storms at Earth Disturbed Mars-Space & Atmospheric Loss Dangerous Radiation Space Storms at the Outer Planets Disturbed Upper Atmosphere Solar System Blast Wave § Current Sun-Earth missions provide a prototype “ 5 th Great Observatory”, providing a first look at the system level view and informing the roadmap plan § Theory, modeling, and observational tools now exist or can be developed to yield both transformational knowledge of the Sun-Earth system and provide needed tools and space weather knowledge for human exploration and societal needs § The 5 th Great Observatory must adapt as new questions and capabilities arise. 8

Objectives Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Safeguard Our Journeys Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space 9

From Goals to Implementation Phase 1 Sun-Earth-Moon System Characterization of System Phase 2 Sun - Terrestrial Planets Modeling of System Elements Phase 3 Sun-Solar System Forecasting Joint Sun-Earth Science § Physical models of important space weather processes Characterize § Measure Environments near-Sun space § Magnetic reconnection § Particle acceleration processes environment § Impacts of solar variability on Earth & Mars § Atmospheric response to external drivers § Drivers of cislunar space weather Exploration Systems Timeline Informs Lunar Exploration 2005 § Predict solar, heliospheric & stellar activity § Forecast space weather for society & explorers Model Systems § Drivers of climate and habitability § Inner heliosphere radiation & space weather forecasts § Sample interstellar medium Reliable Predictions for all Uses of Space Local Space Weather Forecasts for Operations Space Weather Impacts on System Design Crew Exploration Vehicle Robotic Lunar Exploration Forecast Hazards Informs Extended Human Exploration Human/Robotic Lunar Surface Exploration 2015 Extended Human Operations on Lunar Surface Space Weather Operations Human Exploration Near Mars or other solar system locale 2025 Human Exploration of Mars or other solar system locale 2035 10

Sun-Solar System Mission Recommendations Current Budget Lines In Development Recommended New Initiative Partnership Flagship missions and partnerships: Recommendation: Obtain additional resources and work with partners to implement these missions Optimized program will require more resources …

Response of the Earth Sun System Division to new directions for NASA 1. Craft a strategic Research Plan that achieves high priority national scientific goals and optimally supports the Vision for Exploration (ROADMAP) 2. Develop and maintain a robust, serviceable space infrastructure. ( PROGRAM ELEMENTS) 12

Community Coordinated Modeling Center • Facilitates Community Research • Provides community use of TR&T models • Supports Transition to Space Weather Operations 13

Project Columbia 14

The 5 th Great Observatory • Senior Review Scheduled for November 2005 15

External Partnerships Partnership Forums: • International Living With a Star • International Heliophysical Year • Enabling Space Weather Predictions for the International Space Environment Service • National Space Weather Program Current Partnership Missions: • Ulysses (ESA) • So. HO (ESA) • Cluster (ESA) • Geotail (JAXA) • Solar-B (JAXA) Future Partnership Missions: • Solar Orbiter (ESA) National Partners: • National Science Foundation • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • Department of Commerce • Department of Defense • Department of Transportation • Department of Energy • Department of the Interior 16

Technology Development • Answering our science questions will sometimes require measurements at unique vantage points, within and outside the solar system – Cost-effective, high-∆V propulsion and deep space power • • • CRM-1: High energy power & propulsion—advanced RTGs CRM-2: In-space transportation—solar sails CRM-15: Nanotechnology—carbon nanotube membranes – Large area coverage and space-time ambiguity resolution require simultaneous in-situ measurements using clusters & constellations, combined with remote sensing (sensor webs); – Compact, affordable instruments & spacecraft; low-power hi-rad electronics • – CRM-3: Advanced telescopes & observatories Low-cost access to space (secondary payloads; sounding rockets) • CRM-10: Transformational spaceport • Return & ingest large data sets from throughout the solar system – Next-generation or follow on to Deep Space Network • CRM-5: Communication and Navigation • Visualize, analyze and model space plasmas • CRM-13: Advanced modeling/simulation/analysis • New measurement techniques – compact instrumentation, imagers – Next generation of Sun-Solar System instrumentation • • • CRM-3: Advanced telescopes and observatories CRM-11: Scientific instruments & sensors CRM-15: Nanotechnology 17

Human Capital and Infrastructure So that we may develop/maintain U. S. space plasma and space weather prediction / mitigation expertise, it is vital to provide a broad range of competed funding opportunities for the scientific community Science Investigations: • Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) • Living with a Star (LWS) • Explorer Program • Discovery Program • Sun-Solar System Great Observatory Enabling Capabilities: Research Programs: • Research and Analysis Grants Sounding Rocket/Balloon Program Space Environment Testbeds (SET) • Guest Investigator Advanced Technology Program • Theory Program • Targeted Research & Technology Education and Public Outreach • Project Columbia Develop IT, Computing, Modeling and Analysis Infrastructure • Virtual Observatories Low Cost Access to Space • Science, Training, & Instrument Development E/PO to Attract Workers to Earth-Sun Systems Science Maintain Multiple Hardware & Modeling Groups • Strengthen University Involvement in Space Hardware Development • Facilitate and Exploit Partnerships • Interagency and International Upgrade DSN to Collect More Data Throughout the Solar System 18

Education and Public Outreach is Essential to the Achievement of the Exploration Vision – Emphasis on workforce development – Requires increase in the capacity of our nation’s education systems (K-16) – Entrain under-represented communities in STEM careers (demographic projections to 2025 underscore this need) Roadmap has focused on: – Close up look at the role national science education standards play in effectively connecting NASA content to formal education – Importance of E/PO to achievement of Exploration Vision – Identification of unique E/PO opportunities – Articulation of challenges and recommendations for effective E/PO 19

Response of the Earth Sun System Division to new directions for NASA 1. Craft a strategic Research Plan that achieves high priority national scientific goals and optimally supports the Vision for Exploration (ROADMAP) 2. Develop and maintain a robust, serviceable space infrastructure. ( PROGRAM ELEMENTS) 3. Plan an excuitable series of fight missions (FLIGHT PROGRAM) 20

NASA Science Launches ESSD MISSIONS (CY 04 -CY 10) Deep Impact NOAA N GOES N GP-B Messenger SWIFT Aura Airborne Msn Foreign Msn on US LV US Msn on Do. D LV IBEX ST-6 New Horizons KEPLER WISE CALIPSO DAWN Phoenix Lander ST-7 Cloud. Sat ST-5 MRO THEMIS TWINS-A AIM CINDI NPP Astro-E 2 Rosetta STEREO SOFIA ST-8 GLAST SDO JUNO NOAA N’ LWS RBSP GOES O LRO OCO OSTM TWINS-B Herschel GOES P Mars Telecom Hydros SOLAR B Planck Aquarius Lunar Lander GPM Us Inst. On Foreign Msn US Msn on US LV US Participation on Foreign Msn MSL ST-9 Success Failure 21

NASA Science Launches HELIOPHYSICS MISSIONS (CY 04 -CY 10) Deep Impact NOAA N GOES N GP-B Messenger SWIFT Aura Airborne Msn Foreign Msn on US LV US Msn on Do. D LV IBEX ST-6 New Horizons KEPLER WISE CALIPSO DAWN Phoenix Lander ST-7 Cloud. Sat ST-5 MRO THEMIS TWINS-A AIM CINDI NPP Astro-E 2 Rosetta STEREO SOFIA ST-8 GLAST SDO JUNO NOAA N’ LWS RBSP GOES O LRO OCO OSTM MSL TWINS-B Herschel GOES P Mars Telecom Hydros SOLAR B Planck Aquarius Lunar Lander GPM Us Inst. On Foreign Msn US Msn on US LV US Participation on Foreign Msn ST-9 Success Failure 22

Present into Future - A National Plan 23

Is There Time to Learn Enough? Exploration Plan 24

Universal Structure and Processes Magnetically Driven Gravitationally Dominated Sun-Solar System Connection Physics Three forces: • Pressure • Gravity • Magnetism Familiar Physics - Two forces: • Pressure • Gravity Galaxies Heliosphere Stellar Magnetism Space Weather Stars/Sun: CMEs Nebulae Flares Total Solar Irradiance / Climate Magnetars Pulsars Solar Variability Planets: Aurorae Ionospheres Atmospheric Chemistry Planetary Magnetospheres The dynamic interplay between the three forces (pressure, gravity, and magnetism) in the various venues of the solar system - the Sun’s atmosphere; the interplay between the Sun and the heliosphere; the interfaces between planets, their magnetospheres and the heliosphere; and the boundary between the solar system and 25 the galaxy.

Heliophysics: The investigation of • the Sun, • its effects system, and on the planets of the solar • the structure and changing conditions of the space environment. . . including those experienced by human and robotic explorers. 26

27