Early Warning System Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott

Early Warning System Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph. D. , Research & Accountability Department 1

ATTENDANCE MATTERS 100% 90% Graduation Rate 80% Graduation Rate by Attendance 69% 88% 91% 70% 60% 50% 26% 40% 30% 2% 5% 10% 0% Below 60% 60 -69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-94% Goal (95%+) Attendance Rate Alternative programs excluded from the analysis due to fundamentally different attendance information; Some data compiled over 8 years (05 -06 to 13 -14) 2

Graduation Rate ATTENDANCE AND GPA MATTERS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Graduation Rate by Attendance with 54% 56% 39% GPA < 2. 0 15% 0% 1% Graduation Rate Below 60% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 60 -69% 70%-79% Attendance Rate Graduation Rate by Attendance with GPA >= 2. 0 80%-89% 90%-94% Goal (95%+) 94% 93% 86% 56% 20% 27% Below 60% 60 -69% 70%-79% 80%-89% Attendance Rate Alternative programs excluded from the analysis due to fundamentally different attendance information; Some data compiled over 8 years (05 -06 to 13 -14) 3

Initial RISK using attendance and GPA A GP<1. 0 F 1. 0 -1. 99 D 2. 0 -2. 99 C 3. 0 -3. 99 B 4. 0+ A ATTENDANCE RATE Less than 70%* 70% - 80%* 80% - 90%* More than 90%* * For elementary students, the cut-offs are 85%, 90%, and 92% 4

Early Warning System Information on Attendance and Grades combined with: 1. Retention 2. Former dropout 3. Credits vs Grade Level 4. State/District Assessments 5. Out-of-school suspensions To determine High, Medium, and Low Risk for Dropout 5

FACTS for High Risk Students: • Almost 2/3 of dropouts are High Risk students, despite being only 11% of All students • 27 times more likely to dropout than Low Risk student • Only about 10% graduate if High Risk continues 6

FACTS for High Risk Students: • Less than 8% meet standards on Math AMP • Average GPA is 1 letter grade lower than their peers • High Risk in Elementary High Risk in Secondary (over 50%) • Dropout rate can be cut in HALF with interventions 7

Dropout rates by Risk level Dropout Total LOW MED HIGH NO Count 21245 5703 2992 Total 29940 YES Count 181 271 804 1256 % of DROPS 14% 22% 64% 100% DROPOUT RATE 0. 8% 4. 5% 21. 2% 4% 21426 5974 3796 31196 69% 11% 100% Count % of TOTAL Aggregated across 5 years (10 -11 to 14 -15) 8

Graduation rates by Risk 98% 100% Graduation Rate 90% 52% 80% 70% 60% 50% 9% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% High Risk Med Risk Low Risk Level 9

Dropout Rate by Groups and Risk: • • Student with Disability Dropout Rate = 7. 4% Students without Disability Dropout Rate = 3. 7% High Risk Dropout Rate: SWD = 21. 3% non-SWD = 21. 1% Economic Disadvantage = 22% Non-ED = 20% Limited English Proficient = 16% Non-LEP = 21. 5% Caucasian = 20. 9% African-American = 17. 8% Hispanic = 19. 6% Asian/PI = 20% AK Native/American Indian = 23% 10

Dropout Rates by Service • Interventions with High Risk students lead to: • Comparison group (No intervention) = 21. 1% • Treatment group (Intervention) = 10. 8% • “ 24+ contacts” group = 7% • Early Warning System is a GAME CHANGER 11

Grades 7 -12 Dropout Rates 05 to 15 Dropout Rate 10 7. 5 Without Intervention With Intervention 7. 6 6. 7 5. 9 5 5 5. 4 4. 9 4. 2 2. 5 0 4. 6 4. 2 4. 5 3. 9 4. 3 3. 9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 School Year 12

Graduation success program ended, however • Early Warning System still in operation • Tidbits guide to staff • List of students sent to school principals 13

School Input on Early Warning Systems • 28 administrators, counselors, support staff, and teachers • 21 schools • Asked 6 questions: School, Role, Staff involved, interventions used, challenges, suggestions, final thoughts 14

School Input Survey Question 3 Who monitors the risk levels at your school? Teachers/counselors? • Primary staff involved are counselors & prevention/intervention specialists • Staff can view risk levels in Powerschool 15

School Input Survey Question 4 What interventions are provided for High Risk Students? • • • Parental Contact Counseling After-school 1 -to-1 connection with support staff RTI for academic support Programs: Special Ed. , ANE, ELL, etc 16

School Input Survey Question 5 What do you perceive as the biggest challenge for serving High Risk Students? • Time and Resources • Lack of parental involvement • Attendance 17

School Input Survey Question 6 What suggestions do you have for improving the model in identifying low, medium, and high risk of dropout? • None (most common response) • Use MAP scores • School-based referral process 18

School Input Survey Question 7 What else, if anything, would you like to add? • More time and resources • More professional development for staff • More support • More parental involvement 19

Graduation and Dropout Rates 2006 -07 to 2014 -15 Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph. D. , Research & Accountability Department 20

Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard Dropout Rate 2014 -2015 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Grade 7 -12 Dropout Rates '07 to '15 Fairbanks 5. 9% Graduation Rate Statewide 5. 4% 4. 7% 5. 5% 5. 2% 2007 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2014 -2015 2008 2009 4. 0% 3. 9% 2010 2011 Big 4 4. 3% 3. 9% School Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 Graduation Rates '07 to '15 70. 0% 63. 0% 67. 6% 71. 1% 74. 0% 75. 7% 68. 0% 71. 8% 75. 3% 54. 0% Fairbanks 2007 2008 2009 Statewide 2010 2011 School Year 2012 Big 4 2013 2014 2015 Dropout rates cannot be used to calculate graduation rates (accurately) ; 2014 -2015 statewide dropout results unavailable Big 4 includes 4 other largest districts: Anchorage, Juneau, Kenai, and Mat-Su; Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph. D. , Research 21

Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014 -2015 Grade 7 -12 Dropout Rates '07 to '15 Caucasian* Asian/PI* AK Nat/AI* 10. 2% 6. 8% 6. 2% 4. 3% 3. 3% 2. 6% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 School Year 2013 2014 Dropout Rate Grade 7 -12 Dropout Rates '07 to '15 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Male 5. 2% 4. 5% 5. 8% 3. 3% 3. 2% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 School Year 2013 2014 2015 Dropout Rate Female 6. 9% 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Two+Races 7. 5% African American* Hispanic* 4. 5% 4. 8% 4. 0% 4. 5% 6. 8% 2007 2015 Grade 7 -12 Dropout Rates '07 to '15 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2014 -2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 School Year 2013 2014 Grade 7 -12 Dropout Rates '07 to '15 8. 7% ED 6. 6% SWD LEP 2015 7. 4% 5. 9% 6. 4% 4. 6% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 School Year 2013 2014 2015 * - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph. D. , Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient 22

Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard Graduation Rates '07 to '15 76. 8% 61. 5% Graduation Rate 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 62. 3% 51. 7% 40. 2% Caucasian* 2007 75. 8% 2008 2009 Asian/PI* 2010 2011 2012 School Year AK Nat/AI* 2013 2014 Graduation Rate 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015 Graduation Rates '07 to '15 64. 4% 59. 7% 73. 5% 78. 2% 68. 7% 72. 7% Female 2007 2008 2009 Male 2010 2011 2012 School Year 2013 2014 2015 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2014 -2015 Graduation Rates '07 to '15 52. 9% 76. 5% 74. 2% 69. 7% 74. 1% 54. 0% Two+Races 2007 Graduation Rate 2014 -2015 2008 2009 African American* 2010 2011 2012 School Year 2013 Hispanic* 2014 2015 Graduation Rates '07 to '15 ED SWD LEP 63. 8% 48. 5% 35. 3% 33. 2% 2007 2008 52. 3% 45. 2% 2009 2010 2011 2012 School Year 2013 2014 2015 * - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph. D. , Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient 23

Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014 -2015 5 -year Graduation Rates '11 to '15 100 90 Graduation Rate 80 75. 5% 70 60 70. 2% 77. 2% 76. 0% 78. 9% 78. 5% 73. 2% 74. 7% 76. 3% 78. 4% 50 40 Fairbanks 30 Statewide 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 School Year 2014 2015 Dropout rates cannot be used to calculate graduation rates (accurately) ; 2014 -2015 statewide dropout results unavailable Big 4 includes 4 other largest districts: Anchorage, Juneau, Kenai, and Mat-Su; Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph. D. , Research 24

5 -year Graduation Rates '11 to '15 90. 1% 80. 6% 91. 2% 79. 9% 76. 3% 77. 5% 62. 6% Graduation Rate 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 60. 5% Caucasian* 2011 63. 1% 2012 Asian/PI* 2013 School Year AK Nat/AI* 2014 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015 5 -year Graduation 81. 3% Rates '11 to '15 82. 7% 79. 9% 74. 9% 71. 5% 70. 9% Female 2011 2012 2013 School Year Male 2014 2015 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2014 -2015 5 -year Graduation Rates '11 to 82. 4% '15 73. 2% 77. 0% 69. 6% 77. 8% 68. 7% Two+Races 2011 Graduation Rate 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Graduation Rate Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014 -2015 2012 African American* 2013 School Year Hispanic* 2014 2015 5 -year Graduation Rates '11 to '15 72. 7% ED 78. 9% LEP 63. 2% 59. 7% 51. 4% 2011 SWD 56. 8% 51. 3% 2012 2013 School Year 50. 4% 2014 2015 * - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph. D. , Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient 25