Early College Early Success Results From the Early

Early College, Early Success Results From the Early College High School Initiative (ECHSI) Impact Study Andrea Berger, Ph. D. Principal Research Analyst, AIR January 2014 Copyright © 2014 American Institutes for Research. All rights reserved.

ECHSI National Evaluation Two Phases o Descriptive Study: 2002– 2009 o Impact Study: 2010– 2013 2

Descriptive Study: 2002– 2009 • Extensive data collections • Key findings: • Students were largely from populations underrepresented in • • postsecondary institutions EC students were outperforming districts on state assessments Students were accumulating college credit Students expected to graduate from college Majority of early graduates enrolled in college after high school • Annual summary reports available at www. air. org 3

Impact Study: 2010– 2013 • Promising findings from descriptive study but correlational evidence • Two research questions 1. Do EC students have better outcomes than they would have had at other high schools? 2. Do the effects of EC differ for students with different background characteristics? 4

Impact Study Approach How do we determine impact? Time machine? 5

Impact Study Approach How do we determine impact? Randomly assign all students? 6

Impact Study Approach How do we determine impact? Randomly assign all students? 7

Impact Study Approach How do we determine impact? Randomly assign some students 8

Impact Study Approach How do we examine college outcomes without waiting at least 6 years? Go back in time…kind of Retrospective RCT 9

Impact Study Approach Treatment Students Comparison Students 10

Impact Study: Participating Early Colleges Open by fall 2007 Students in high school grades Had graduates in study years Used a lottery for admissions Kept old lottery records 154 Early Colleges 141 Early Colleges 125 Early Colleges 20 Early Colleges 11

Study Cohorts and Expected Student Progression 4 th year college (12– 13) 12 th grade (08– 09) 9 th grade (05– 06) 3 rd year college (12– 13) 12 th grade (09– 10) 9 th grade (06– 07) 9 th grade (07– 08) 12 th grade (10– 11) 2 nd year college (12– 13) 12

ECHSI Impact Study Sample § 10 Early Colleges § 2, 458 students • Early College (treatment): n = 1, 044 • Comparison: n = 1, 414

Sample Characteristics Student Background Characteristic Early College Comparison Difference Female 51. 8% 55. 0% -3. 2% Minority 52. 4% 53. 6% -1. 2% First generation 30. 7% 34. 4% -3. 7% Low income 46. 4% 42. 3% 4. 1% Prior ELA: z-score . 25 . 10 Prior math: z-score . 23 . 29 -. 06

Data Collection § Student educational records • • Lottery records, student demographics, and student outcomes From Early Colleges, districts, and states National Student Clearinghouse Fall 2004 through summer 2013

Impact Study Findings: High School Outcomes § Early Colleges had a significant impact on the high school graduation rate Percentage of Students Who Graduated 100% 86%* 81% 80% 60% Early College Comparison 40% 20% 0% High School Graduates

Impact Study Findings: College Outcomes § Early Colleges had a significant impact on college enrollment rates Percentage of Students Enrolling in College 100% 81%*** 72% 78%*** 67% 60% Early College 40% Comparison 20% 0% Any College Enrollment by 1 Year Post-High School Time Period

Impact Study Findings: College Outcomes Percentage of Students Ever Earning a Postsecondary Degree § Early Colleges had a significant impact on degree attainment 25%*** 23%*** 20% 15% 10% 5% 5% 1% 2% 1% 0% Any Postsecondary Degree Certificate Associate's Degree Type Early College Comparison 5%*** 1% Bachelor's Degree

Subgroup Outcomes § RQ 2: Do the effects of ECs differ for students with different background characteristics? • High school graduation: no significant differences • College enrollment: no significant differences • Degree attainment: stronger impact for… – Minority students – Low-income students – Students with higher middle school achievement

ECHSI Impact Study Results Do Early College students have better outcomes than they would have had at other high schools? • Yes Do the effects of Early Colleges differ for students with different background characteristics? • Similar or stronger impacts for underrepresented students

ECHSI Impact Study Reports All reports are available at AIR. org. Search for “Early College” or use link below: http: //www. air. org/earlycollegeimpact

Andrea Berger 650 -843 -8147 aberger@air. org 2800 Campus Drive, Suite 200 San Mateo, CA 94403 General Information: 650 -843 -8100 TTY: 650 -493 -2209 www. air. org Note: Images used with permission of Microsoft. 22