Drought Monitoring Prediction and Response A View From
- Slides: 33
Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia David Emory Stooksbury, Ph. D. State Climatologist and Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences The University of Georgia stooks@engr. uga. edu
Facts About Georgia ◊ In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million ◊ In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4. 3 million ◊ In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4. 5 million ◊ In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8. 5+ million ◊ Largest state east of the Mississippi River ◊ 8 th largest state in population
Facts About Georgia ◊ Northern quarter is southern highlands ◊ Southern half is the coastal plain ◊ Most of the population lives in the piedmont ◊ The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown)
Georgia Water Facts ◊ North of the fall line - primarily surface water • Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles. ◊ South of the fall line - primarily ground water ◊ 1. 5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia
Georgia Climate Facts ◊ Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year • More than 80 inches in the mountains • 45 inches interior southeast ◊ Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3. 5 inches ◊ Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting
GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES DROUGHT RESPONSES DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP Approved: March 26, 2003
Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses: 1 A): The State Climatologist’s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities …
Precipitation ◊ 30 days ◊ 90 days ◊ 6 months ◊ 12 months ◊ Water Year ◊ 24 months ◊ 36 months
30 Day Precipitation
90 Day Precipitation
6 Month Precipitation
12 Month Precipitation
Water Year Precipitation
24 Month Precipitation
36 Month Precipitation
Soil Moisture
“Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)
“Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)
Stream Flows
Stream Flows
Stream Flows
Lake Russell GA/SC
Clarks Hill Lake GA/SC
Lake Hartwell GA/SC
Lake Lanier GA
Groundwater
Drought Level Guidance CD Drought Indicators 1 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Allatoona Chattooga River at Summerville 2 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona Etowah River at Canton Chestatee River near Dahlonega
Georgia Drought Response Levels ◊ Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a. m - and - 4 p. m. to 12 midnight. ◊ Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a. m. ◊ Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a. m. ◊ Level Four: Complete outdoor water use ban
Determining Drought Level Response ◊ Look at climatological data ◊ Look at triggers guidance ◊ Discussion
Comments about Discussion ◊ Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not capture the essence of the drought ◊ Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought. ◊ Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels
Determining when to relax restrictions ◊ Look at climatological data ◊ Look at trigger guidance ◊ Look at climate outlooks ◊ Discussion
Drought Outlooks ◊ CPC Seasonal Outlooks ◊ IRI 3 -month Outlooks ◊ NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks ◊ Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007
Additional Information ◊ State Drought Page: www. georgiadrought. org ◊ UGA Automated Weather Stations: www. georgiaweather. net ◊ Southeast Climate Consortium: www. agroclimate. org
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