Drought Monitoring Prediction and Response A View From

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Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.

Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia David Emory Stooksbury, Ph. D. State Climatologist and Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences The University of Georgia stooks@engr. uga. edu

Facts About Georgia ◊ In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million ◊ In 1960 Georgia’s

Facts About Georgia ◊ In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million ◊ In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4. 3 million ◊ In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4. 5 million ◊ In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8. 5+ million ◊ Largest state east of the Mississippi River ◊ 8 th largest state in population

Facts About Georgia ◊ Northern quarter is southern highlands ◊ Southern half is the

Facts About Georgia ◊ Northern quarter is southern highlands ◊ Southern half is the coastal plain ◊ Most of the population lives in the piedmont ◊ The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown)

Georgia Water Facts ◊ North of the fall line - primarily surface water •

Georgia Water Facts ◊ North of the fall line - primarily surface water • Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles. ◊ South of the fall line - primarily ground water ◊ 1. 5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia

Georgia Climate Facts ◊ Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year •

Georgia Climate Facts ◊ Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year • More than 80 inches in the mountains • 45 inches interior southeast ◊ Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3. 5 inches ◊ Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting

GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS AGENCIES

GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES DROUGHT RESPONSES DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP Approved: March 26, 2003

Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS The following is the process for declaring drought conditions

Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses: 1 A): The State Climatologist’s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities …

Precipitation ◊ 30 days ◊ 90 days ◊ 6 months ◊ 12 months ◊

Precipitation ◊ 30 days ◊ 90 days ◊ 6 months ◊ 12 months ◊ Water Year ◊ 24 months ◊ 36 months

30 Day Precipitation

30 Day Precipitation

90 Day Precipitation

90 Day Precipitation

6 Month Precipitation

6 Month Precipitation

12 Month Precipitation

12 Month Precipitation

Water Year Precipitation

Water Year Precipitation

24 Month Precipitation

24 Month Precipitation

36 Month Precipitation

36 Month Precipitation

Soil Moisture

Soil Moisture

“Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)

“Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)

“Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)

“Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)

Stream Flows

Stream Flows

Stream Flows

Stream Flows

Stream Flows

Stream Flows

Lake Russell GA/SC

Lake Russell GA/SC

Clarks Hill Lake GA/SC

Clarks Hill Lake GA/SC

Lake Hartwell GA/SC

Lake Hartwell GA/SC

Lake Lanier GA

Lake Lanier GA

Groundwater

Groundwater

Drought Level Guidance CD Drought Indicators 1 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Allatoona Chattooga River

Drought Level Guidance CD Drought Indicators 1 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Allatoona Chattooga River at Summerville 2 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona Etowah River at Canton Chestatee River near Dahlonega

Georgia Drought Response Levels ◊ Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight

Georgia Drought Response Levels ◊ Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a. m - and - 4 p. m. to 12 midnight. ◊ Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a. m. ◊ Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a. m. ◊ Level Four: Complete outdoor water use ban

Determining Drought Level Response ◊ Look at climatological data ◊ Look at triggers guidance

Determining Drought Level Response ◊ Look at climatological data ◊ Look at triggers guidance ◊ Discussion

Comments about Discussion ◊ Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not capture the

Comments about Discussion ◊ Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not capture the essence of the drought ◊ Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought. ◊ Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels

Determining when to relax restrictions ◊ Look at climatological data ◊ Look at trigger

Determining when to relax restrictions ◊ Look at climatological data ◊ Look at trigger guidance ◊ Look at climate outlooks ◊ Discussion

Drought Outlooks ◊ CPC Seasonal Outlooks ◊ IRI 3 -month Outlooks ◊ NOAA’s and

Drought Outlooks ◊ CPC Seasonal Outlooks ◊ IRI 3 -month Outlooks ◊ NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks ◊ Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007

Additional Information ◊ State Drought Page: www. georgiadrought. org ◊ UGA Automated Weather Stations:

Additional Information ◊ State Drought Page: www. georgiadrought. org ◊ UGA Automated Weather Stations: www. georgiaweather. net ◊ Southeast Climate Consortium: www. agroclimate. org