Drought in Pakistan LEAD Pakistan LDP Karachi 3

Drought in Pakistan LEAD Pakistan LDP, Karachi 3 June 2015 Brig. (R) Kamran Shariff

Outline: Setting the stage; Drought prone regions and historical perspective; Hazard risk rating; Climate change and the meteorological perspective; Drought situation 2014 onwards: water, food and agriculture, health and livestock; • Drought governance in Pakistan; • Drought monitoring; and • Mitigation strategies • • •

Definitions: • Drought is a slow onset disaster whose onset occurs as a consequence of rainfall shortage but its impact varies in various regions consistent with the local environment, weather, soil conditions and host of other factors. Its impact, unlike other natural disasters, extends over considerable space; • Variants: Meteorological, hydrological, agricultural & socioeconomic • Drought Mitigation: structural / physical measures (appropriate crops, dams or engineering projects) or non-structural measures (policies, awareness, knowledge development, public commitment, and operating practices) undertaken to limit the adverse impacts of drought;

Definitions: • Drought Response: efforts such as provision of assistance or intervention during or immediately after a drought disaster to meet life preservation and basic subsistence needs of the affected population. It can be of immediate, short term or protracted duration; Source: ISDR • Sustainable Development: meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. (World Bank)

Question: Is drought a disaster situation warranting emergency response; or a developmental issue with a drought situation reflecting developmental deficit ?

Components of a drought policy Sustainable development; • Water security; • Food security; • Livelihood diversity; • Environmental security; • Rangelands management; • Livestock management; Mitigation strategies; Emergency response management; Awareness raising and capacity building

Drought Actors: • Federal Government: Planning Commission, WAPDA, Ministry of Climate Change, NHPREN, Ministry of Food Research, NDMA, PARC, PMD, SUPARCO; • Provincial Government: Departments: P&D, Food, Health, Livestock, Forest, Agriculture, Irrigation, PDMA, Provincial Nutrition Cell; • Districts: Relevant departments of the District Government led by the DC; • UN Agencies: WFP, UNICEF, FAO, WHO, UNDP, relevant NGOss

Deserts / Rangelands:

Cholistan:

Drought prone regions of Pakistan: The Thar Desert: spread over 320, 000 square kms with 85% in India. Pakistan’s Thar desert is spread over approx 50, 000 square kms across Tharparkar, parts of Umarkot, Sanghar, Khairpur and Ghotki; Kirthar Range in Sindh: Spread over 25, 000 sq kms, it extends into Jamshoro, Dadu and part of Thatta district; Rangelands of Balochistan: comprise 79% of the landmass. Include Central Balochistan Quetta and Kalat; Western Balochistan desert: Chagai, Kharan, Gwador, Lasbela and Kharan. Eastern Balochistan Zhob and Loralai regions; Cholistan Desert: 26, 3000 square kms along Bahawalnagar,

Droughts in historical perspective: • Major droughts recur in 12 -16 years cycle and lesser versions every 4 -6 years in the vulnerable regions; 1999 -2001 Drought: • Affected the entire country but Balochistan was worst affected followed by Sindh; • 3 million pop affected and 2. 5 million livestock lost; • 58 districts seriously affected, or which 23 were from Balochistan; • Agricultural growth registered negative 2. 5%. Losses estimated

Drought in historical perspective: • IFIs assisted $ 360 million Drought Emergency Releif Assistance programme focused on emergency response, communication and water infrastructure mainly; • Chronic water shortages negatively impacted on traditional coping mechanism; • Livestock distress sale and increased morbidity and mortality; • High incidence of water borne disease and chronic and acute mal nutrition; • Socioeconomic poverty

Hazard and risk assessment factors: Baseline Factors: • Food and nutritional security; • Access to improved drinking water; • Fully immunised children 12 -23 months; • Total 12 marks Drought Vulnerability Aspects: • Drought occurrence; • Exposure: % of population in drought vulnerable areas; • Drought impact. • Total 18 marks. Grand total: 30 marks

Present Drought Situation; Climate change aspect: • There is evidence to suggest that global warming has negatively impacted upon the Pakistan's environment, like causing loss of bio-diversity, shifts in the weather patterns and reduced fresh water supply. Climate change trends are synonymous with climate variability in terms of flash floods and drought incidence; • Prevalence of El Nino conditions;

2013 Summer Monsoons 2014 Summer Monsoons October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 February 2015 Pakistan Plus 10% Minus 23% Plus 59% Minus 3% Minus 99% Minus 16% Sindh Minus 21% Minus 78% Minus 94% Minus 48% Minus 100% Minus 74% Balochistan Plus 11% Minus 33% Minus 42% Plus 10% Minus 100% Minus 42% Punjab Plus 9% Minus 1% Plus 63% Plus 14% Minus 100% Minus 11% KP Plus 13% Minus 32% Plus 173% Minus 19% Minus 98% Plus 15% GB Plus 12% Plus 118% Plus 12% Plus 21% Minus 100% Minus 36% AJ&K Plus 6% Normal Plus 1% Minus 100% No departure

Drought 2014 onwards: • Water security in Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh), Cholistan and Balochistan; • Food security and agriculture; • Health: • Livestock situation; • The Balochistan drought situation • Priority of needs identified by the communities: water, livestock, health, food

Water security 160 140 137. 22 132. 83 131. 31 128. 67 122. 31 121. 80 Inflow Volume (MAF) 120 100 80 60 40 20 17. 16 12. 54 8. 26 7. 02 1. 69 5. 02 0 1961 -62 To 1970 -71 1971 -72 To 1980 -81 1981 -82 To 1990 -91 1991 -92 To 2000 -01 Period Western Rivers Eastern Rivers 2001 -02 To 2010 -11 2011 -12 To 2013 -14

Health: Nutrition status 2014, < 5 deaths 2012, 2014 ; Districts Umarkot Sanghar Kambar S Tharparkar GAM 2014 25. 3% 24. 1% Districts Umarkot Sanghar 2012 198 441 234 2014 259 592 314 22. 3% 22. 2% Thatta Shikarpur Jacobabad Kashmore Badin 19. 2% 18. 2% 13. % Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki 318 59 436 1257 88 186 554 587 203 356 1707 89 189 668 Mirpurks Tharparkr 13. 3% 9. 7% Dadu 4. 2% Badin Dadu

Health: < 5 deaths 2012, 2014; < 1 deaths 2012, 2014 Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr 2012 174 4083 373 2014 166 299 162 Districts Umarkot Sanghar 2012 2014 160 161 3771 50 Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki 245 99 1401 608 484 357 2124 366 131 872 321 175 230 408 Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki 66 56 1365 848 332 43 412 125 Mirpurks Tharprkr 351 127 135 144 Badin Dadu 216 178 1710 95

Drought Monitoring: Issues • Meteorological and hydrological networks are often inadequate in terms of monitoring parameters; • Forecasts often lack reliability on seasonal timescale and specificity, thus restricting their use; • Drought monitoring systems lack integration, including those of climate change, water and soil parameters and socio-economic to map the drought magnitude, spatial extent and potential impact; • Drought early warning dissemination methods are lacking in reach to the end users, and thus do not support decision making at multiple response levels;

Drought Monitoring: • Global facilities & regional networks; • In Pakistan, PMD Drought Early Warnng Centre uses Standard Precipitation Index. Fortnightly and three monthly updates; • SUPARCO issues monthly crops situation updates. Uses Keetch Byram Index; • WFP disseminates monthly market prices bulletin and quarterly food security update; • Need for Integration; • Proposed integrated drought monitoring and response mechanisms for Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh) and Cholistan

Drought Mitigation Strategies: • Addresses (1) water, (2) food and agriculture, (3) health, (4) livestock and range management; (5) cbdrm; and (6) climate change adaptation; • Align mitigation with development, and emergency responses with mitigation; Strategy development: • Sustainable development; • Sustainable consumption; • Institution building + governance aspects; • Reinforce structural capacity; • Promote integration and coordination;

Drought Mitigation Strategies: Water: • Policy issues; • Supply side management; • Water demand management; • Ecological solutions; • Water governance; • Desalination • Emergency response management

Drought Mitigation Strategies: Food and Agriculture: • Policy inputs; • Research and capacity building • Promotion of less water demanding crops; • Soil conservation; • Watershed management; • Water conservation; • Emergency response management.

Drought Mitigation Strategies: Health and Nutrition: Reinforce needs based nutrition interventions; Reproductive health; Human resource; Access and outreach; Disease surveillance and responses; Preventive and curative

Drought Mitigation Strategies: Rangeland Management: • Mapping of inventory building; • Measures for checking desertification; • Rangeland usage control; • Reinforce goverance aspects; • Promote communities inclusive management; Livestock: Veterinary support, planning for emergency support, emergency fodder solutions, community awareness raising and capacity building

Tharparkar Drought Response 2015