Dropout Prevention and Student Engagement Summit Turning Data

Dropout Prevention and Student Engagement Summit Turning Data Into Information: Performing a Data Audit to Understand the Nature and Scope of a School’s Dropout Problem PETER FRITZ DROPOUT PREVENTION AND STUDENT ENGAGEMENT UNIT COLORADO DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION February 18, 2011

Benefits of a Dropout Data “Audit” Simple and fast – uses existing data already provided to CDE Puts data in context – compares a school’s data to state averages Understandable – graphic display of data makes it easy to communicate findings

Limitations of a Dropout Data “Audit” Not a substitute for an Early Warning System Exclusively quantitative vs. qualitative (helps answer who dropped out and when but not why) Occurs after students have already dropped out The audit may not be informative for non-traditional high schools (different grade configurations, serving special student populations, etc)

Methodology Aggregated data from the past 3 years (2009 -10, 2008 -09, 2007 -08) Helps address issues with disaggregated groups that may have a small single-year sample size or schools with small overall populations Compensates for single year “anomalies” (positive or negative) Data are taken from CDE’s Student End of Year collection – unless otherwise noted State-wide averages are intended for comparison to a high school with a “traditional” 9 th – 12 th grade range

Visualizing the Data

When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL A Percent of School’s Total Annual Dropouts by Grade Level 50% 40% 35. 0% 31. 4% 30% State Average for each grade 21. 2% 20% 12. 4% 10% 0% 9 th 10 th 11 th 12 th

When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL A Possible Implications: • Lack of effective transition and orientation programs between middle and high school? • Less experienced / less effective teachers assigned to freshman and sophomore level courses? • Inappropriate / unmerited grade promotion practices at feeder middle schools?

When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL B Percent of School’s Total Annual Dropouts by Grade Level 57. 6% 50% 40% State Average for each grade 30% 22. 3% 20% 14. 4% 10% 5. 8% 0% 9 th 10 th 11 th 12 th

When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL B Possible Implications: • Inappropriate / unmerited grade promotion practices? • Students in programs like SPED Transition Services, English as a Second Language/Bilingual Education and ASCENT are dropping out or aging out rather than receiving a diploma – even with extra years allowed to graduate? • Inappropriate curriculum design or curriculum sequencing?

When do Students Drop Out: Time of Year 20, 0% 18, 0% 16, 0% 14, 0% 11, 6% 10, 0% 12, 3% 12, 0% School A 7, 3% 4, 8% 5, 8% 4, 0% 7, 1% 7, 2% 6, 0% State Average 8, 1% 8, 0% 2, 0% ER ne SU M M Ju ay M il Ap r h ar c M ry ua br Fe ar y be ec em D Ja nu r r em be r be ct o O N ov Se pt e m be r st Au gu ly Ju 0, 0%

When do Students Drop Out: Time of Year 35, 0% 30, 0% 29, 1% 25, 0% 20, 0% School B 15, 0% State Average 10, 0% ER ne SU M M Ju ay M il Ap r h ar c M ry br ua Fe ar y be ec em D Ja nu r r em be r be ct o O N ov Se pt e m be r st Au gu ly 0, 7% 5, 7% Ju 8, 7% 6, 3% 8, 2% 9, 1% 5, 7% 6, 7% 0, 0% 6, 2% 8, 4% 0, 2% 5, 0%

Students who exit in ways other than dropping out can have a negative impact on a school’s graduation rate Percent of Total 9 th – 12 th Grade Membership Annually Reported as … State Average Dropouts Expulsions GED Transfers GED Recipients 7. 1% 5. 1 0. 2 1. 3 0. 5 9. 0 School X 21. 7 7. 7 38. 5% 0. 1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Example #2 Percent of Total 9 th – 12 th Grade Membership Annually Reported as … State Average Dropouts Expulsions GED Transfers GED Recipients 7. 1% 5. 1 0. 2 1. 3 0. 5 4. 1 School Y 0% 5. 3 5% 32. 5% 23. 1 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

By Middle School Attended 50% 40% 32. 3% For each middle/ feeder school listed: 35% 30% 27. 3% 25. 1% 25. 2% 22. 6% 20% Percent of Total Annual HS Dropouts 14. 7% 10% 0% Anderson Bradley Cooper Percent of Total HS Student Population Other

To download a copy of the Excel tool used to create the graphs in this report for your high school: VISIT THE DROPOUT PREVENTION AND STUDENT ENGAGEMENT UNIT WEB PAGE ON THE CDE WEB SITE: HTTP: //WWW. CDE. STATE. CO. US/DROPOUTPREVENTION/

Dropout Prevention and Student Engagement Summit Student Perceptions as Predictors of High School Graduation ALAN DAVIS ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND RESEARCH METHODS February 18, 2011

Best 8 th grade predictors of high school graduation Grades in Academic Courses Average 8 th grade GPA of DPS Graduates: 3. 2 Average 8 th grade GPA of DPS Dropouts: 1. 8 Attendance Behavior (lack of referrals, suspensions) Student perceptions (goals, motivation, connections, stresses, confidence)

Denver Study of Student Perceptions Importance of High Academic Stress School Importance of College Social Confidence Classroom Confidence Family Support Teacher Connections Peer Connections Meaningful motivation to learn Social Stress Financial Stress Sleeping Problems Feeling Blue Agitation Eating Problems Physical Symptoms

Scales Most Predictive of High School Success Importance of College It is important that I go to college Meaningful Motivation to Learn I keep coming to school because I see the importance of learning Classroom Confidence I am confident about asking questions in class Agitation (negative) During the past week I have been experiencing mood swings Academic Stress (negative) During the past month I have had difficulty taking tests

Predictive Power Combined scale correctly predicted 58% of academically successful students 60% of academically unsuccessful students Prediction Score Probability of Academic Success Probability of Academic Failure -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 15% 21% 30% 40% 50% 61% 71% 85% 79% 70% 60% 50% 39% 29%